E-Mini S&P

A push to new record highs seems a foregone conclusion at this point.  The futures are exactly where they were three weeks ago, when I drum-rolled a 1494.25 target as a potentially important high. That could still be the case, since the target itself, missed by 1.25 points, remains viable. It wouldn't be the first time a bull trap was sprung at a marginal new high. As a practical matter, let's plan on getting short at a hitherto unremarked target that comes from the weekly chart. So that the target doesn't become a sitting duck for front-runners, I've provided coordinates in the chat room so that you can calculate it yourselves. They can be found in a post at 00:49 Tuesday, the first of the day.

Take your pick of several downtrending abc's.  If the futures do in fact head lower, my choice is the one shown, with a 1567.75 target. You can try bottom-fishing there, one contract, stop 1566.75; or four contracts if you use camouflage that limits your theoretical loss to no more than 3-4 ticks per contract.  Please note that the 1574.50 midpoint support has already been breached as of late Sunday night.  Alternatively, if buyers come out swinging, there's a veritable forest of 'external' peaks you can use to find a subtle entry opportunity unlike;y to be perceived as a breakout by the competition.

The futures missed a 1589.00 rally target given here yesterday by three ticks. Fortunately, that didn't deter an intrepid camouflageur who goes by the chat-room handle 'Davis' from getting short a few points off the top. He reported taking a partial profit one point below the 1585.75 entry price, then taking a single contract home after the bell.  We wished him good luck. Luck aside, with the Mother of All Bull Traps now in its fifth year, getting short will always be grabbing a tiger by the tail. Davis' trade has the potential to rack up an additional 7-point ($350) gain, based on the target shown (lower green line). however, judging from the bounce the futures got from the 1578.50 midpoint, it's not going to be easy money. _______ UPDATE (10:54 a.m. EDT):  With one 4-point rally interrupting overnight, the futures bottomed exactly at the 1574.50 target shown in the chart.  Since then, they've been in a headless chicken dance that was verging on taking out the low. Want to join in the fun? Click here for a free trial subscription that includes daily touts and access to a 24/7 chat room that draws experienced traders from around the world.

Yesterday's tiresome pump-priming produced a marginal new high that got the futures within four points of the 1583.00 target given here yesterday.  The weak selling that ended the day left a 10-point rally to be traded -- presumably via camouflage, since the action has been so herky-jerky. Notice that after-hours selling has produced two 'external' peaks that can be leveraged for this purpose, and there could be more of them by the time you read this.  If you miss this opportunity, I'd recommend taking the short from 1583.00, or perhaps from 1589.00, an alternative target derived from the lower point 'A' (see  inset) at 1542.75.  'Camouflage' is the method of choice here, since both targets used the nadir of Tuesday's nutty swoon for a point 'C' low. _______ UPDATE (6:10 p.m. EDT):  The intraday high occurred at 1588.25. Shortly thereafter, a chat-roomer with some impressive camo chops, Davis, reported getting short at 1585.75. He took one contract home with him and we wished him good luck. Want to join in the fun? Click here for a free trial subscription that includes daily touts and access to a 24/7 chat room that draws experienced traders from around the world.

In the chat room, in response to a query, I suggested incorporating yesterday's hysterical swoon into any target calculations or camo strategies. I'm curious myself to see whether this works, but regardless, there is likely to be something to learn. On the lesser charts, the pattern itself is clear if erratic, and it yields a short-term rally target at 1583.00. Notice that price action relative to the midpoint support is increasingly looking like a consolidation, implying that camo traders should position from the long side.  There are no true 'external' peaks to leverage for this purpose, but the three I've highlighted should suffice.

The clock ran out on yesterday's slow-motion short-squeeze, leaving the futures a couple of ticks shy of the 1562.00 rally target shown.  What you should notice first, however, is the fine 'camo' opportunity that followed the creation of a point 'B' high just a tick above a prior 'external' peak (labeled N in the chart).  Granted, the double bar 'C' low is not exactly perfection. But the  trade the followed entry at 'x' was manifestly worth a B grade nonetheless because bulls would have experienced little pain once aboard.  Our next rally target is 1564.00, and it can be found on the hourly chart using the following coordinates: A=1536.25 (4/19 at 10 a.m. EDT); B=1557.50 (4/21 at 10:00 p.m.).  Since 1553.25 is the pattern's p midpoint, night owls might look for a camouflage entry opportunity on a pullback to that number.  ________ UPDATE (11:42 a.m. EDT): The algos have had little trouble pushing this projectile through minor Hidden Pivot targets on the hourly chart. The last of them lies at 1579.00 (A=1530.75 on 4/18), a logical minimum upside projection for today.  Camo traders can try shorting there, but I'd risk no more than three ticks theoretical per contract.

It's Sunday night, and the bullish lunatic fringe appears to have recovered its composure following last week's mayhem and jihadist intrigue. At the moment, they've got the futures up about 8 points, equivalent to 100 on the Dow.  The move is NOT yet bullishly impulsive even on the lowly 15-minute chart (see inset), but DaBoyz could remedy that with a relatively modest push above the 1559.50 'external' peak shown. This seems likely, given that any uptrending ABC you choose to examine on this chart has exceeded its 'D' target.  Because of the subtlety of the 1559.50 peak, night owls should look to board following any b-c pullback from just above it.  The set-up looks sufficiently appealing that I can scarcely imagine it failing.

The larger, downtrending pattern projects to 1521.25 (see inset), but a smaller one at the right-hand edge of the chart could provide 'camo' access without much sweat.  Obviously, a breach of the still-tenuous point 'C' high would alter the trade, but night owls looking for action should monitor this developing pattern closely, since it showed promise as of around 1:50 a.m. EDT.

The power and persistence of yesterday's selloff made a short at any 'x' a winner, since there were few rallies to stop out bears at point 'C' highs. This could be the start of something big, but getting aboard will require paying diligent attention to intraday price action. Look for me in the chat room if you're interested.  While it's disappointing that a 1594.25 target I'd featured here for a while missed the recent top by a crucial 1.25 points, stranding short offers at that price, if a bear market is indeed under way there will be other opportunities to get short -- and to make some money trading both sides of the market.