E-Mini S&P

I've deliberately underpublicized a major rally target at 1594.25 so that it has a better chance of working.  We examined the pattern that produced the target during yesterday's weekly tutorial session for Hidden Pivot Webinar grads and found that it has aged without losing any sex appeal. Notice in the chart that the k-A and B-C segments have a strong sibling resemblance. Another thing to like is that the elongated C-D segment will have obscured the idiosyncratic perfection of the entire pattern from the eyes of Gartley-pattern chartists and others. Pretty as this picture is, I strongly doubt that the futures will get by it without providing a tradable pullback.  We'll attempt the short via camouflage even though I expect the top to occur within 1.00 point of where it should. The task will be made easier if we work this opportunity together, so I would ask Pivoteers who have been dogtailing the E-Mini S&Ps in the chat room lately to signal the camo short in timely fashion if it turns up on the very lesser intraday charts.  I'll be there myself to help make sure we get this one right, since it's the best shorting opportunity we've seen since late February. _______ UPDATE (April 12, 1:36 a.m. EDT): I opened an online trading session for 90 minutes yesterday so that we might look together for the opportunity detailed above.  At this point, shorts should be attempted only via camouflage for two reasons: 1) the futures have traded close enough to the target that it has effectively been fulfilled; and 2) I still expect a tradable top to occur at or very near 1594.25.  Using camouflage, we can avoid getting impaled if the futures exceed the target, but more to the point, we can take advantage of any subtle opportunities

Check out the chart to refamiliarize yourself with the 1594.25 target we've been using as a minimum upside objective. Given Friday's nasty swoon, the red-line midpoint at 1562.00, is not exactly a point of consolidation, but yesterday's spike through it implies nonetheless that our target is still a good bet to be reached, and soon. Camouflageurs should play only from the long side, looking for impulsive patterns that meet our simple criteria on charts of five-minute degree or less. As of around 2:25 a.m. EDT, a minor bullish pattern on the 10-minute pointed to 1574.00 thus: A=1566.00 (4/9 at 11:20 a.m.); B=1569.00  (3:00 p.m.); and C=1561.00 (9:10 p.m.).  X entry at 1564.25 (not a camo x, incidentally, but one of higher degree) is a single tick from being hit, and once this has occurred, you should do your camo-hunting on charts of lesser degree.  Click here for details about the upcoming seminar on 'Camouflage Trading', plus a $50 discount.

Although I'd advised you to forget about shorting this vehicle until it hit 1594.25, getting long should be attempted only with great caution. Notice how the corrective abc begun from Monday's  high reversed precisely from its 1552.50 midpoint support. That is implicitly bullish, but initiating a 'camo' long at x could subject one to an all-nighter waiting for enough lift to get to p.  You'll know by the time you read this how things played out, but my hunch is that the relatively modest rally will stall at D, asssuming it even gets there. (Late bulletin:  C was a tick from getting breached.) _______ UPDATE (12:03 p.m. EDT):  The futures launched from a slightly lower point C minutes later.  When it becomes available shortly, check out the recording of Lesson #2 in the No Trader Left Behind series, since we'd anticipated this trade via a timed buy-stop that would have worked effortlessly.

Our focus is still on the 1594.25 target shown, so you should put shorting this little critter out of mind at least until it gets there.  Notice that after two stalls at the midpoint resistance last week, Thursday's push broke through it, if only slightly so far.  While that's sufficient to imply that a surge to 1594.25 is most likely, it isn't quite strong enough for us to infer that blastoff is imminent.  Accordingly, camouflageurs should zoom down to the 10-minute chart or less if looking for a place to board.

We were briefly in a trade yesterday that was flagged in timely fashion by an alert chat-roomer who goes by the handle 'Kibitzer'.  Kibitzer he manifestly is not, since this opportunity had some serious mojo going for it, camo-wise.  The trade went on to reach its 'D' target at 1557.00, but not before I'd suggested tightening the stop-loss sufficiently to turn Kibitzer's $600 winner into a $125 semi-quasi-pseudo winner. The broad averages underperformed my expectations yesterday, but I still think DaBoyz are simply marking time, waiting for news from Europe to recede from view, albeit perhaps only temporarily.  When liftoff finally occurs, presumably by no later than Friday, you can safely assume the futures are bound for the 1594.25 target, at least.  Camouflageurs, please take note:  a move to the target would become an  odds-on bet if the futures close above the 1562.00 midpoint resistance.  Click here to sample Rick's Picks free for a week, including the chat room.

The 1617.84 S&P 500 rally target flagged in today's commentary implies that trading should be done from the long side right now, preferably via camouflage. To assist you in this task, I've reproduced a 10-minute chart of the E-Mini S&Ps that contains the kind of subtleties we require when attempting to board such a well-advanced trend. Indeed, an entry signal that I've labeled with an 'x' has been tripped in the last hour. I am recommending that you use the 10-minute bars, as I have, to identify similarly promising opportunities. _______ UPDATE (11:49 a.m. EDT):  In the chat room this morning, an alert 'Kibitzer' signaled a bull trade that is working out nicely at this point.  Here's the recaptitulation: 1) (11:07 a.m.) K: We have a tentative C at 1551 (x= +1.75 points); 11:13 x triggered; 2) RA:  (11:13 a.m.) Thank you, Kibitzer. Off an actual low of 1550.75, entry was signaled at 1552.50. P=1554.00, where half is to be exited. D=1557.00; K (11:19): Midpoint success; RA (11:30): Yes, success indeed. U are out of half, with a 1551.00 cost basis for what remains. Use a fixed stop-loss at 1550.50, o-c-o with an order to close out an additional 25% of the original position at 1557.00.

Cyprus depositors and bondholders have taken a mortal hit, and the episode seems likely in my estimation to have far-reaching consequences that will rival those set in motion by the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914. For now, though, the OPM-mongers who move markets are treating it as a non-event, as are the lazy, clueless hacks who write the news. Notice that the corrective abc in the chart reversed from just below p to create a bullish impulse leg.  This 'duel' suggests that bulls are merely marking time, waiting for Cyprus to blow over, before they take stocks still higher. For camo traders, this suggests that buying opportunities will best be found near p and d pivots of downtrending abc patterns.  Click here to find out more about Rick's proprietary method of trading and technical analysis. Rick majored in English lit, implying that just about anyone can learn how to use Hidden Pivot Analysis and 'camouflage' trading tactics.

The hysterics of the last few days have alleviated the boredom of a rally that had been largely untradable for weeks, but we should be careful what we wish for, since we've now got a real handful. Much as the permabear in me would like to say it's a topping pattern, notice how the minor abc corrections are not reaching their 'd' targets -- are in fact reversing from near their 'p' midpoints. The implied bullishness of such price action would be further affirmed by an impulsive upthrust, but that too has been missing, at least so far.  It would be remedied by a print exceeding the 1547.50 'external' peak that I've labeled. If you're looking to get long via camouflage, I'd suggest jumping on the trade if a pattern develops that yields a b-c pullback from just above 1547.50. Click here to learn more about my proprietary 'camouflage' trading method.

Amazing!  Nothing....NOTHING seems to spook this market. I was looking for a 30-point gap-down opening in the E-Mini S&P Sunday night, but the Sleazeballs who control it needed only an 11-point discount from Friday's settlement to put out what they must have felt was a larcenous bid. Granted, it has taken a further markdown of 11 points to carve out a tentative low at 1531.00, but even at that price the Dow would open only 180 points lower on Monday. It feels to me like DaSleazeballs view the ostensibly scary news from Cyprus as a shakedown opportunity.  Or perhaps index futures are down only modestly because the only players left in the game are other shakedown artists? In any case, the selloff so far is bearishly impulsive on all charts up to and including the daily, but we won't know if there is real fear behind it until we've seen an upward correction and downside follow-through attempt.  If it turns higher from the C-D midpoint (see inset), however, that will be good evidence that DaBoyz are capable of taking the news from Cyprus easily in stride.  ______ UPDATE (10:29 a.m. EDT):  The analysis above got it precisely right, since the futures have been moving relentlessly higher since 2 a.m., recouping about 70% of their losses following an overnight low of 1529.50. It seems a foregone conclusion at this point that any follow-through selling will be reversed from p or higher.  A further possibility is that there will be no c-d downleg, only a rally from last night's criminally engineered low that keeps on going...and going...and going.