ESZ09

Yesterday's tiresome mess pointed lower -- to 1043.50, a Hidden Pivot that you can bottom-fish with a three-tick stop-loss up until 10 a.m. EDT. I somewhat like this set-up because the whoopee-cushion bounce early in the session came from within a single tick of the midpoint pivot noted in the chart. _______ UPDATE (12:30 a.m. EDT):  During Tuesday evening's Hidden Pivot Seminar, I noticed a lovely opportunity developing on the hourly chart:  bottom-fish 1053.50, stop 1052.75.  That's a Hidden Pivot, and it will remain viable as long as the point 'C' of the pattern, 1069.25, is not exceeded first.  If the support is exceeded, its sibling 'D' target at 1037.75 would become my minimum downside objective. I have replaced the original chart that was displayed with this tout to show you a pattern that has a half-dozen things to love:  1) single-bar A, B and C; 2) strong sibling resemblance between B-C and k-A segments; 3) poor symmetry; 4) non-sausage 'B'; 5) obscure ABC-ness; 6) point 'B' located in the middle of outer space.  All slowly unfolding in the dead of night.  I sy, Go for it!   _______ FURTHER UPDATE(10:48 a.m. EDT):  Nice. The overnight low was 1052.50, so my three-tick stop-loss needed two more ticks to have caught the 7.50-point rally that followed.  Was the stop-loss too tight in theory?  I don't think so.  The pattern was so perfect that I would do it again, same way.  Now, because the low has been taken out overnight, we can be nearly certain the selling will come down to 1037.75.  I'll let you determine the stop-loss on this one, but it wouldn't hurt to be short while you wait. ______ FINAL UPDATE (1038.00): A huge, huge surprise:  ES dropped steadily for the last three hours of the day, hitting 1038.00 fifteen minutes after the day session ended. 

Sellers easily crushed a textbook Hidden Pivot support at 1067.00 yesterday, suggesting that things are likely to get worse before they get better. There are no downside targets remaining on the hourly chart, but if you're short to begin with (or if you'd like to get long with camouflage), a 1072.50 stop-loss may work. That's a tick above the second of two external peaks whose breach, if the rally does not pause between them, would create a bullish impulse leg on the one-minute chart (shown).

A week's worth of white noise has left the futures in a state of tedious limbo. Friday's zig followed Thursday's zag, and if it wasn't entirely predictable before the opening bell, by day's end it looked like as orderly on the hourly chart as a seismograph of Kansas. The downtrend looked bound for a Hidden Pivot support at 1067.00, exactly 4.50 points beneath the actual low. That will be our minimum objective when stocks open Monday morning, but I'll update Sunday night if it looks like the Furies have had a change of heart. _______ UPDATE:  The futures are headed higher this morning for whatever non-reason, but the rally has the same old heart -- of a chicken -- as last week's go-nowhere, alternate-day bursts.  The 1067.00 target will remain valid in any event, provided 1095.25 has not been exceeded to the upside.

The futures turned and burned after faking weakness in the early going, rallying 22 points from low to high. Impressive?  Not really, since buyers didn't have to push past even a single external peak on the intraday charts. We'll hold our enthusiasm in reserve pending the completion of a bullish pattern that projects to 1106.25.  If you're looking for camouflage entry opportunities Thursday night or Friday morning, I suggest using the two labeled peaks for cover. An impulse leg 'B' falling between those peaks would be just about perfect, although you'll probably have to be nimble to get on board with a buy-stop. _______ UPDATE (12:51 p.m.):  The pattern is playing out as illustrated (although there was no reason to expect this; the illustration was intended as a "what-if" map), yielding an entry at 1094.50, a stop-loss at 1093.50, a 1095.25 midpoint, and a 'D' target at 1096.50.  _______ FURTHER UPDATE (10 a.m,. EDT): The fact that the futures couldn't even reach the 1095.25 midpoint of the puny rally pattern I've referenced telegraphed the weakness on the opening.  This weakness was impulsively bearish on the 15-min chart, by the way, but that was not telling us much. 

The recent top at 1099.00 came close enough to the 1101.25 target shown in the chart that we should monitor the correction attentively. In addition, yesterday's plunge in the final hour was bearishly impulsive on the hourly chart, although it hasn't developed sufficiently yet to yield a downside target.  Last Tuesday's low at 1063.00 is a logical objective, but if it were to be exceeded, that would double the implied power of yesterday's bearish signal.

The futures have gone limp enroute to a presumptive target at 1105.50.  The sibling midpoint of this Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 1091.00, which is the a approximate midpoint of the last two days' action. Let's stipulate that a close above that number be recorded before we infer that the rally is back in gear.

Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1093.25, stop 1092.75. That's the 'd' target of a very) minor correction off the after-hours high, 1096.50. If the futures find traction there and resume their giddy dance higher, use 1102.25 as a minimum short-term objective. _______ UDPATE (1:28 a.m.):  A print above 'C' (1095.50) invalidated our target, and therefore the buying strategy. The difficulty the futures are having so far tonight reaching minor correction targets is bullish.

The futures sagged after DaBoyz unloaded into Friday's briefly buoyant opening, but even after being ripped off in that way, buyers returned to drive a rally that was impulsive on the lesser charts. It went nowhere, but still, buyers were able to land a couple of body blows that turned the short-term picture from ever-so-slightly bearish to inconclusive. If they are to regain the upper hand, Sunday night action should see the futures dip no lower than 1079.25.  If that midpoint support gets trashed, however, expect the weakness to continue down to at least 1070.25. You can bottom-fish there, stop 1069.50, till 10 a.m. EDT, provided the 1088.25 point 'C' of the pattern has not been exceeded. _______ UPDATE (2:46 a.m.):  Zoom the 5-minute chart to the size of a barn door, and tonight's rally from 1076.25 starts to look impressive, but it is otherwise pretty timid stuff for a Sunday night. Youll need to drop all the way down to the two-minute chart to create some external peaks for "camouflage" along the wall of Friday's decline. The closest such resistance lies at 1084.75, and that will be where DaBoyz must decide whether the ingredients are present for a short-squeeze attempt. ________FURTHER UPDATE (11:23 a.m.): On the 2-minute chart mentioned, "camouflage" entry yielded an easy winner once the futures surpassed 1084.75.  They kept going to form a 'B' high at 1086.25, then a pullback 'C' at 1085.  With 'A' at 1081.25, entry would have come at 1086.25, and you never looked back.

The S&P futures, ever coy, are playing possum just a few points shy of a 1093.50 target flagged here yesterday. I'd stay away from this vehicle for the time being, unless you fancy playing ping-pong with it on the one-minute chart.  The target is still viable but perhaps less useful for trading purposes because of all the dithering that has occurred so close by. If you plan on shorting, a stop-loss no wider than 1094.25 should be used.  Above 1093.50 there is another clear target at 1100.75 that was well exposed during yesterday morning's tutorial session.  However, its close proximity to round-number resistance rules it out as an especially promising place to take a stand. _______ UPDATE (4;34 p.m.): The futures popped to 1093.25 at the bell, so I'll assume bullish and bearish subscribers alike were well satisfied by the outcome. The high was followed by a so-far 4-point drop, so if you risked only three ticks shorting there as suggested (shorting a tick below where I'd suggested, actually), you might have covered or taken a partial profit at 1090 or lower.  If you were long, as Sportdoc appears to have been, then you got a carefree ride to within a single tick of the top of yesterday's subdued march to recovery.