ESZ12

Today's chart shows at a glance where the bigger-picture pivots lie. There are three bullish patterns here, each with a p midpoint and D target shown in a different color. D's should be used to get short or to exit longs, while p's should be used to bottom-fish.  If it is the latter type of trade you are attempting, camouflage is strongly recommended. _______ UPDATE (November 7, 12:43 a.m. EST):  Since I am unable to imagine an Obama rally, I’ll be paying very close attention to the way in which the ostensibly bullish set-up described above plays out. The very first credible sign of trouble would come today on a  1409.50 print, since that would generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. ________ UPDATE (10:20 a.m.):  A 2.5% decine would bring the Dow down to 12913, about 35 points beneath the low created by today’s so-far 230-point fall.  Since I can scarcely imagine the stock market declining a measly 2.5% to discount the actual Death of America, I’ll continue to monitor my technical indicators closely, and to trust them over my gut instincts. FYI, the E-Mini S&Ps, currently trading near 1400.00, project to 1364.75 over the very short-term.  This implies a drop in the Dow of 500 points — twice the current amount.

We're limited to day-trading now, enthralled to the coin-flip randomness of each session's price action. Thursday's close was bullish just the same, since it vaulted an external peak at 1421.75 recorded last Friday. The fact that the futures have spent 12 hours since then doing absolutely nothing does not portend an ebullient breakout today, but it should at least put traders in a bullish frame of mind. If the futures push above 1433.00, it will raise the obvious challenge of a further push to mid-October supply centered near 1458.

Yesterday's burst of exuberance on the opening proved short-lived -- a reminder, perhaps, that the Keynesian boost the economy will receive from rebuilding what the hurricane destroyed will be heavily countered by a debt implosion that has finally begun to weigh on corporate earnings. The rally was nonetheless bullishly impulsive and will remain so as long as it doesn't sink beneath its starting point, Monday's 1393.00 low. Camouflageurs may find opportunity zooming down to the 3-minute chart once the p midpoint shown has been exceeded. _______UPDATE (10:45 a.m. EDT):  On the 3-minute chart, in pushing past the 1411.25 midpoint, the futures popped a nicely tradable pattern, A=1409.00 (9:33 a.m.), B=1413.75, C=1411.25. If you took the 1412.25 entry signal, take a 50% profit now, around 1422.50, and let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

Friday's tepid price action did nothing to alter a forecast that had called for a moderate decline to at least 1385.25, a Hidden Pivot target.  Moderate weakness was continuing Sunday night, but the decline was likely to be cut short by Wall Street's closure on Monday due to the hurricane. As noted in the chart -- the same one reproduced here on Friday -- the 1385.25 target is less important for trading purposes than for whatever we might speculate after it's hit.

The futures were getting hit mildly as of around 2 a.m. Eastern,  though not yet savaged.  The pattern shown suggests minimum downside over the near term to at least 1385.25, but merely observing the resilience of that Hidden Pivot will likely be more valuable to us than attempting to trade it (although that, too, should be easily possible via camouflage or a straight bid).

Notice that yesterday's selloff (see inset) has created a bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree, since the structural low at 1414.50 that it breached, diminutive though it be, is a legitimate 'external' low.  Camouflageurs should look on the 5-minute chart for places to short an uptrending abcd, but officially we'll wait for a C-D downleg to develop so that we can get a read on sellers' fears at its p midpoint.

The ginned-up short-squeeze that ended yesterday's session was undeniably impulsive and may have created an avenue of opportunity for night owls.  The pattern is just lazy-ugly enough to appeal to no one -- no one but us, that is, especially if it generates the kind of single-bar 'C' low we relish. That'll likely be good enough to get point 'x' buyers to the 'p' midpoint, but you'll need to  make sure you take a partial profit there if it becomes available, since breakouts in the wee hours have been relatively rare recently. _______ UPDATE (11:11 a.m. EDT):  The futures sank without signaling any buying opportunities of the kind we look for.  They've traded as low today as 1402.00, but more downside to 1390.25, the nearest Hidden Pivot support, appears likely.

My omission of this trading vehicle from the touts section in recent days has been deliberate, since price action has been tediously unsuitable for our purposes.  And so it remains in the wake of Friday's probably gratuitous dive. We await (much) better opportunities, but you should stand aside for now.

It's catch-as-catch-can from one day to the next, since this headless chicken appears to be animated by trading machines tuned to news headlines, web-based chatter and billboard-obvious support-and-resistance levels.  Notice that the futures have made no progress since slightly exceeding the 1465.75 target of the pattern shown more than a month ago (inset).  This is neither bullish nor bearish technically speaking, just boring beyond belief for anyone who expects the market to do "something" merely because we're living in such accursedly interesting times.  ______ UPDATE (3:15 p.m.): In the chat room about three hours ago, I offered a 1450.50 rally target that was ultimately exceeded by a single tick (i.e., 0.25 points). After hanging up near the highs for much of the morning, the futures have since fallen to a so-far low of 1446.00.  I've suggsted covering half here and carrying the remainder overnight only for those who have access to a trade desk during the late session.