Gold Miners ETF

It requires very close attention to trade this nasty little bugger, and that is why I am calling on Pivoteers to post away in the Trading Room if they see any opportunities develop intraday. The pattern shown offers a heat map for doing so, with a 36.90 target that looks very likely to be  achieved. That's evident from the way buyers impaled the 33.14 midpoint Hidden Pivot on first encounter. In retrospect, Friday's wicked swoon to the green line was a great opportunity to get long with a 'mechanical' bid, but I was too busy with other tasks to do anything more than be awed by the way this vehicle's canny handlers defenestrated bulls before getting out of the way of a short-covering panic. The lesson here is to realize that any feints lower are fright-mask tactics orchestrated to keep even true believers from making money on an uptrend that is strong, credible and all-too-obvious. _______ UPDATE (May 6, 5:40 p.m. EDT): Here's a bottom-fishing strategy to consider if GDX continues to visit pain on bulls. If the trade triggers, I will establish a tracking position once two or more subscribers have reported doing it. _______UPDATE (May 7, 9:35 p.m.):  The rally left our stingy bid choking on dust. The 36.90 target is looking good, but use a 'dynamic' trailing stop if you're in from lower levels. That means shrinking the stop so that it is always equal to a third of the distance between the target and the current high. _______ UPDATE (May 10, 9:55 p.m.): The 'dynamic' stop would have triggered Thursday at 35.09, although this will have no bearing on the odds of the 36.90 target being achieved.  If an opportune buying set-up presents itself we may be able to catch a ride, so stay tuned to

A trade posted in the chat room at 1:52 p.m. was showing a $182 gain at the bell, with 75% of it exited. Its purpose was twofold: 1) to provide a low-risk, low-cost 'starter' position in a popular gold vehicle; and 2) to show the many subscribers who have recently signed on how they can profit and have fun doing it by tuning to the chat room. On both counts, this gambit was a success, since GDX took off toward the end of the session.  Here's the recommendation that went out initially. Judge for yourself whether you could have done it:  "If [the stock] has gone no lower than 32.82, buy-stop [yourself into] 400 shares at 33.02. Place a stop-loss on all of it at 32.81, worked against an o-c-o order to exit 200 shares at 33.20. This will be a 'starter' long position." Many subscribers reported doing the trade as directed. Looking ahead, we'll shoot for the fences -- in this case a 'D' target at 38.01 (30-min, A=29.55 on 4/21).  Stay tuned for possible adjustments, however, since we may do a covered write with call options if and when GDX hits the first significant resistance enroute to the target, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 35.42. That will be my minimum upside objective if the stock closes above x=34.12 for two consecutive days. If you'd rather take the money and run, by all means do so at will. Rest assured, there will be other similar opportunities down the road. _______ UPDATE (Apr 30, 12:40 p.m. EDT): My bad, since I drifted off to sleep last night intending to put a stop-loss on the position. This morning was so hectic that I barely gave GDX a thought. Exit now, around 32.58, since the stock has stopped being fun for the

My attempt a month ago to crowdsource bullish trading ideas in this stock elicited just one timely suggestion  -- thank you, Ray -- although there were a couple of old-school Pivoteers who took the ostensibly easy route by shorting the stock at each minor Hidden Pivot rally target as it rose massively from the low $20s.  There was a time not long ago when I tracked GDX and made frequent trading recommendations. Over time, though, it wore me out, especially the psychotic swoon in March. I figured that if the interest was there, there would be plenty of tradeable ideas aired in the room, but I figured wrong. Anyway, I don't want to see GDX double in price again and find that we -- meaning all of you who are reading this -- never held an "official" position. I am therefore jumping back in again to play a more active role, and it will again be commensurate with the interest that you show in trading/owning this vehicle. No matter what, I will be happy to vet any set-ups that others post. The chart explains why GDX is 99.99% certain to run up to at least 36.75, presumably over the near term. It was a buy last week at 33.06, stop 31.83, but it's too late for that now. If you are a beginner or new subscriber who has never netted a dime off any trading service, especially Motley Fool, I am going to make achieving this goal as easy as for you as I can. In the weeks ahead, if you don't have the time or  inclination to monitor the chat room for simple trades like the one that is coming in GDX, then I'd suggest checking out the touts section from time to time for cheap, low-risk 'mechanical' set-ups

Cue the kettle drums, because here's the no-brainer trade-of-the-month I promised that is designed to make your Rick's Picks subscription effectively free. We'll risk a theoretical $84 on it, but if it doesn't work, keep in mind that just a few of the juicy 'half-a-brainer' trades posted in the Trading Room over the last week or so -- trades you evidently didn't want to bother with -- could easily have produced gains totaling $5,000 or more.  To initiate this one, bid 26.84 for 400 shares, stop 26.63, day order. This is akin to catching a falling piano, and the stop-loss is tighter, probably, than what you are used to. Nor do I have to tell you that merely training on an exact number where we expect a significant price reversal to occur, and for hundreds of subscribers to make an easy $200-$500 on the rally, is enough to queer its magic power.  In any event, the precise entry strategy is how the Hidden Pivot Method rolls, and you can expect the 26.82 midpoint support to work precisely or not at all. (Actually, if it were to be exceeded by 70 to 80 cents, a rally back up to the green line would make GDX an attractive short.)  Have fun! _______ UPDATE (Mar 10, 12:20 p.m. EDT): Yeah, that was fun all right.  The trade was stopped out quickly for an $84 loss as gold was getting pounded by a short-squeeze rally in stocks. Don't think that because GDX looks like hell today it won't go even lower tomorrow. With today's unexpected penetration of p=26.82, GDX has signaled more downside to p2=25.24, or possible even D=23.66. This is congruent with a $1.00 drop in Silver that appears imminent. Gold futures, however, are inconclusive and can be traded from either side of

Because we took profits on 75% of our initial position on the way up, last week's horrific plunge still left us with a more-than-nominal profit. Our effective cost basis was $24.32, and I'll suggest exiting on the opening. I'd originally planned to gut it out in order to make the point that 'mechanical' entries are easy to execute and work well, especially when price action turns violent. However, the more important goal was to provide an absolute no-brainer trade to pay for your subscription, even if you've never done anything but lurk in the chat room. Assuming GDX gets even slight lift on the opening from Sunday night's strong rally in bullion, you should come away with a profit of around $200. I may suggest jumping in again if and when GDX falls to the green line, as it well may. Please stay closely tuned, especially if you've never made a dime on other trading services. _______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 11:47 a.m.): Based on this morning's opening price of 27.24, we exited the remainder of our position for a net profit of $292. Many subscribers reported jumping on this one when I recommended it a month ago. I purposely made it simple enough for traders of all levels of experience, and cheap enough to be suitable for accounts as small as $6,000. If you didn't do the trade yourself, you ought to be asking yourself why, since it was the every-once-in-a-while lay-up I promised when you subscribed.

On February 2, based on reports from subscribers, I established a tracking position of 400 shares @ 28.39. I am still suggesting that you exit half at 29.42, but we'll keep the remainder for a shot at much higher prices (see chart inset). If GDX eventually reaches the 36.66 target, we could book a profit of as much as $1,886. It could take a while, but we've already proven we can endure a brutal grind waiting to collect our first payoff. It is not yet in the bag, though, since the stock was still 27 cents shy of the 29.42 profit target at today's high. Fortunately, the uptrend looks sufficiently robust to get us there on Wednesday. This trade is what I've described to you in the past as the kind of no-brainer opportunity Rick's Picks tries to offer from time to time in order to make your annual subscription pay for itself, even if you rarely follow my touts, Trading Room instructions or 'request session' actionable ideas. GDX offered a relatively cheap play, and the trade could have been done on margin in an account with less than $12,000 (or $6,000 if you halved the size to 200 shares). The trade was deliberately chosen and precisely timed to address subscribers' keen interest in gold and to ameliorate their recurring frustration trying to make money in a precious metals sector that has been become notorious for misbehavior. The actual buy recommendation was simple and straightforward, allowing subscribers to buy the stock pennies off the bottom of a hellish dive. We subsequently came close to getting stopped out on a relapse, and although our grueling 'hold' caused me to lose patience at one point, I stuck to my discipline and let the trade run. I hope you learned something valuable about

I'm tracking a long position consisting of 400 shares purchased last week for 28.39 when this vehicle dove to 28.23. Ordinarily I would suggest taking half off at the red line, 29.09, but because so many subscribers took the trade, and to demonstrate how well these 'mechanical' set-ups work to those who hadn't tried one, I'm being a little greedy this time. Accordingly, I'll recommend that you continue to offer 200 shares (or half of the original position) at 29.42. We'll look to exit another 25% if and when GDX achieves the 30.50 target. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 9:14 a.m. EST):  Gold is getting hit hard ahead of the opening because stocks are once again in the grip of short-squeeze madness. The GDX position will produce a theoretical loss of $288 on four round lots if it is stopped out. I am recommending sticking with it because that is what disciplined trading requires. ________ UPDATE (Feb 4, 9:53 p.m.): The position hung on by a thread today when GDX swooned to 27.77, a dime above our stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (Feb 6, 8:44 p.m.): Were stuck with the position because...well, because we are. Continue to offer half of it at 29.42, with an o-c-o stop-loss at 27.67.

It has taken GDX more than four months to carve out a saucer bottom to correct last summer's exuberant excesses. The bullishness of the chart shown is unmistakable, as is the 36.66 target. But first buyers will need to hit achieve 31.32, a midpoint resistance that can serve for now as our minimum upside objective. If it is decisively exceeded, especially on first contact, that would significantly shorten the odds of a continuation to at least p2=33.99, but more probably 36.66. As before, I am looking for help picking an entry spot, since this goal will be best served using an rABC entry set-up intraday.  If you are interested in this stock, don't just say so in the chat room; take a bold step forward and contribute to a common goal. _____ UPDATE (Jan 27, 10:01 a.m.): What gratuitous nastiness! Anyway, here's a small bullish pattern with a 30.50 target you can use to trade this vehicle. A pullback to x=28.39 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 27.67. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 8:53 p.m.): Although there were 60 people in the trading today, only one reported having gotten long according to the instruction above. If a second subscriber chimes in, I'll establish a tracking position of 400 shares; otherwise, GDX will come off the list for lack of interest. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:59 a.m.): The position is 'official'. For now, use a stop-loss at 27.67.  GDX has been swimming against a torrent of money flowing into the usual stocks, but it has been doing it well enough to suggest a gold rally is coming if bull-market mania ever takes a breather. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:28 p.m.): Offer 200 shares to close at 29.42, day order. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 4:35 p.m.): Even when it's in a bull market, gold

I had 'crowdsourced' GDX to subscribers who trade it avidly, but I'll step up my technical coverage because of a cautionary post by a veteran bullion trader in the Rick's Picks Coffee House. For what it's worth, price action in GDX relative to Hidden Pivot levels has been unambiguously bullish, most recently with last week's impulsive pop on the daily chart above the 29.58 'external' peak of September 24. The chart projects minimum upside to at least p=31.33, and although the move may be other than straightforward, the target looks like an odds-on bet to be achieved at the moment.  I'd suggest buying call options or stock only off rABC patterns or at targeted correction lows. For real-time guidance, tune to the chat room -- or better yet, consider being a guide yourself if you trade this vehicle and understand the entry set-ups noted above. _____ UPDATE (Jan 6, 10:31 p.m. EST): The last four sessions have begun with bull-trap spikes, but if this is distribution, GDX has so far refused to die. My minimum target is still 31.33, and the presumptive rally to that number is sloppier already than I had imagined when I wrote above that it would not be straightforward. It's worse than that, actually, since the miners barely budged with gold futures holding firm in the early going on Monday. We shouldn't expect much help from the Ayatollah, since the stock market has already thumbed its nose at the threat of a global outbreak of terrorism. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 9:15 p.m.): A pullback to the green line (27.21, stop 25.97) would set up an attractive 'mechanical' buying opportunity for a shot at 30.90, at least. Trading Room denizens may be able to improvise a less-risky rABC entry that would use A=28.11 (12/11, daily chart), so