Gold

If the turgid price action of the last four days is a consolidation it's a weak one, judging from the futures' failure to 'actualize' minor impulsive thrusts on the hourly chart. Nevertheless, traders looking for a buying opportunity shouldn't hesitate to leverage a 'b-c' pullback from a top that falls within peaks #1 and #2, since that would be as good as it gets for creating subtle camouflage in advance of a breakout. Upside potential thereupon would be to 1528.10, the D target of the pattern shown.  _______ UPDATE (10:48 a.m. EDT):  Gold has relapsed and is down $28 at the moment. No bullish impulse leg was formed prior to the selloff, even on the lesser charts, and no buying opportunities were signaled.

There are some unfulfilled targets not far above Friday's 1485 high, but the futures appear to be struggling hard for those last few yards. Rather than navel-gaze the meaning of it all, we elected to bail out of a long position on Friday, based on a stop-loss at 1470.30. Traders who followed my advice exactly would have come away with a one-day gain of about $4300.  There will always be another opportunity to re-board, of course, but because a top of at least short-term significance seems almost guaranteed just above 1500 if the futures get second wind, we shouldn't be too desperate to re-establish a long position from these levels. Specifically, there are resistance points, previously noted here, in the form of a Hidden Pivot target at 1507.20, as well as a Fibonacci-based level at 1505.00 that would equate to a 0.618 retracement of the downdraft begun in late March from 1618.  An additional resistance not mentioned earlier lies at around 1583 (see inset), where a trendline we'd been using earlier, and whose breach in February foretold gold's recent troubles, comes in. _______ UPDATE (April 29, 11:50 p.m. EDT):  Camouflageurs can use the 1495.00 'external' peak I've highlighted (inset, a new chart) to get long, although more immediately there are three others that could prove equally serviceable provided the impulse leg that exceeds them is not too obvious. The rally targets given above will obtain nonetheless, but odds would still favor bulls for the very short-term. ________ UPDATE (April 30, 9:26 a.m. EDT): This morning's bull trap implies that the bounce from mid-April's grossly oversold lows is sputtering out. The manifestly fraudulent, distributive rally was sprung at 4 a.m., and although it took out two prior peaks without a pause to create a promising camo set-up, the trade that resulted

We're long a single contract from, effectively, 1427, using an impulse-leg stop-loss that will give us a better chance of weathering adverse swings than a conventional stop-loss.  I'd suggested using the 10-minute chart for this purpose, but it has grown too tricky tonight and I will therefore suggest zooming down to the 5-minute.  To illustrate, at this moment, it would take an uncorrected downdraft exceeding  the 1470.30 low to pop us out of the trade. _______ UPDATE (11:19 a.m. EDT): Subscribers who followed my advice and exited overnight on the stop would have booked a $4300 profit for a one-day hold.  The 1507.20 target given here earlier remains viable and is very likely to be reached, or at least closely approached. But don't expect anything more than that until the futures have rested thoroughly, since there is also an important Fibonacci-based resistance at 1505.00.  A rally to that number would represent a 0.618 retracement of the down-leg, visible on the weekly chart, from 1618.30 (3/22) to 1321.50 (4/19). Taken together, the two rally targets are likely to exert a magnetic pull on this vehicle, and that's why I say the target(s) have a good chance of being fulfilled over the near term.  Please note that although we'd held a long contract from, effectively, 1427 with the goal of "swinging for the fences," I found myself unable, as ever, to toss the basics of risk management out the window. As a result, we wound up swinging, merely, for extra bases and hit a double.  FYI, a less gutsy approach, using a 'dynamic' trailing stop and the 1:3 risk/reward ratio that I advise for all trades, would have popped us out of the trade near 1477.  That's because, based on the so-far high of 1484, we had about 21 points of profit

Based on the 1451.40 target given here yesterday, we've still got a 20-point bull trade to look forward to. The ride higher has been anything but comfortable, but if a chop-and-slop ascent is all we've got to work with, we'll deal with it as best we can. In practice, that means taking note of the look-to-the-left peak I've highlighted at 1434.50. It is likely to go unnoticed by other traders, but if a rally exceeds it by a tick or two and pulls back in shallow 'b-c' fashion, it will be ideal for generating an entry signal that gets us aboard with just a few ticks of theoretical risk.  _______ UPDATE (11:43 p.m. EDT):  The pullback from just above 1434.50 provided as felicitous an entry opportunity as camouflageurs are going to see in this vehicle. I've refreshed the chart to show the coordinates -- each perfect in a way that, for proprietary reasons, I won't go into: A=1426.30; B=1436.50; and C=1432.20. For tracking guidance, I'll assume we are long one contract with an effective cost basis of 1427.30.  For now, and until the futures reach our 1451.40 target, use an impulse-leg stop drawn from the 4-minute chart.  At the moment --11:58 p.m. EDT -- it would require an uncorrected downdraft touching  1438.70 to pop us out of the trade.  Above 1451.40, we'll be swinging for the fences. _______ UPDATE (9:49 a.m. EDT):  After hitting a high this morning of 1454.80, the futures have gotten slammed. Use a stop-loss at  1443.60 for the time being.  If it's hit, the theoretical gain per contract would be $1630. _______ UPDATE (10:15 a.m. EDT): Switch to an impulse-leg stop on the 10-minute chart. At the moment, activating the stop would require an uncorrected fall to 1443.00. If you're managing a position, you should check

The rally begun a week ago looks too tired by now to suggest it's going anywhere, although there are purely mechanical reasons, still, for trying to squeeze off a bull trade.  Using the third point 'C' of a presumptive consolidation yields a D target at 1451.40 and a 1427.70 midpoint.  The entry trigger for this pattern has been tripped, but we should focus on a lesser pattern that could get us aboard with significantly less risk. A point B high has yet to be formed, but notice that the potential set-up already has a (very subtle) single-bar A going for it.  I have sketched a few hypothetical bars to guide camouflageurs, but even if no trade develops, price action relative to Hidden Pivots in both patterns could be revealing with respect to gold's mood right now.  _______ UPDATE (10:58 a.m. EDT): The pattern I'd sketched yielded a 1423.60 'camo' entry and a profitable exit on half the position at the 1426.90 midpoint.  Its 1433.60 target was not achieved, however, and exit from the remainder of the position, for a scratch, would have come at 1420.10 if based on the creation of a bearish impulse leg on the chart shown. As of the moment, gold's 30-min chart is impulsively bullish, but the futures are breathing too offer much encouragement.

The next thrust will have to clear the 1458.50 peak shown to refresh the bullish energy of the hourly chart. That's well beneath the 1465.50 target of the minor pattern in play at the close yesterday, and bulls need only supply enough push to get past the 1441.80 midpoint to make it happen. More immediately, traders looking to get long with camouflage cover should zoom down to the 5-minute chart, where an 'external' peak at 1434.50  (4/22 at 8:15 a.m. EDT) looks promising as a place to leverage a subtle pullback.

Although the futures failed to 'actualize' a tempting camo set-up late Sunday night (see inset), moments ago, at around 2:44 a.m. EDT Monday, they triggered an entry signal at 1419.50, then accelerated to hit and exceed the midpoint resistance at 1421.30. This means the 1425.00 target of the small camo pattern is all but certain to be reached, ensuring a fresh breakout above Friday's 1424.70 high.  All of this is happening in real time, too quickly for me to describe, let alone trade. The larger pattern projects to 1430.70, so night owls should make that their minimum upside objective for the very near-term. Anything above that number would corroborate suspicions that gold actually is up to something on a Sunday night, challenging the thimble-riggers' plans for  once.

Ordinarily we would look for this bounce to sputter out at the midpoint pivot of some large ABC downtrend.  In this case, however, there are no suitable patterns that we can use.  The alternative is to focus on the hourly chart (see inset), where an impulsive rally has developed that points to 1447.70 Notice that the rally would easily exceed a 1428.00 'external' peak, refreshing the bullish energy of the chart.  It could also provide an excellent opportunity to get long via 'camouflage' if a b-c type pullback should occur from just above 1428.00.

Gold's so far feeble bounce from Monday's extremely oversold lows does not bode well for the short-term. However, it seems possible at least that a merely mild relapse will fully correct the 2008-11 bull market, clearing the way for a decent rally.  This is implied in the chart (see inset), which shows that a 50% retracement of the bull move would equate to $1301.  I had originally put this benchmark at $1341, but an alert chat-roomer prompted me to take a second look. The new chart reflects a more careful melding of monthly contracts and a 2008 low at $681 rather than the original $732.  Technically speaking, this could give gold a reprieve, allowing a somewhat lower low without seriously breaching what is ostensibly a major support.  Were it to fail, however, a further fall to the 0.618 Fibonacci support would imply a bottom at $1146, rather than the $1188 given here earlier.