Gold

Bulls spent the week fending off and frustrating sellers before lurching higher toward the 1885.40 target shown.  It is a Hidden Pivot of lesser degree than the one at 1880.10 given here  earlier, but the pattern is so shapely and promising that it justifies raising the target itself.  The pattern can be used to manage the risk of a long position or to acquire one 'mechanically' on the way up.  The bad guys seem to be losing their grip, and it is obvious they are having increasing difficulty pushing gold sharply lower no matter what the news or mood on Wall Street. The effect is subtle, but it is most certainly bullish.  _______    UPDATE (May 19, 10:07 p.m.): The futures achieved our 1885.40 rally target and then some with a thrust to 1891.30. That's not much of an overshoot, but in the context of a target as clear and compelling as this one, we should infer that still higher prices impend. It is a welcome sign that the takedown artists appear to be in a coma after having been punched senseless during the last two weeks.

The 1880.10 rally target first flagged here a while back now looks very likely to be achieved, and sooner than I'd expected just a week ago. Back-to-back rallies on Thursday and Friday caught bulls and bears by surprise, although the former are likely to remain skeptical, given the many setbacks they've suffered over the last ten months.  More interesting than the 1880.10 target is one at 2324.70 activated by the thrust slightly past the green line (1838.30) of a significantly larger pattern. We'll need to see how well buyers handle p=2000.50 of that pattern before we can determine the odds of a further run-up to 2324, but p itself looks no worse than an even bet to be reached. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 11:08 p.m.): Make that, achieved later rather than sooner, since gold has lapsed back into its wonted torment-those-who-love-it-most mode. 

Gold has turned punk again, well shy of the 1880.10 midpoint pivot shown in the chart, but also of February 16's external peak at 1817.60.  Exceeding this structural resistance might have offered encouragement; alas, the futures went no higher than 1798. Now, all that bulls have to hang onto is mid-April's successful stab at the green line, which triggered a highly theoretical buy signal. It also activated p=1880.10 as a minimum upside projection, but this goal looks distant, if not to say unattainable, in the context of the daily chart.  Silver, as I keep remarking, looks better -- just not 'better enough' at the moment to drag gold higher through layers of resistance. Where are the robinhood and reddit kiddies when you need them? _______ UPDATE (May 7, 9:13 a.m. ET): With a couple of rare, back-to-back leaps, an energized gold has put my 1880.10 price objective within easy reach. It is a minimum target, but if buyers can impale it on first contact, that would shorten the odds of a further push to 2083.90, the 'D' target of a larger bullish pattern stretching back nearly a year.  And if that Hidden Pivot resistance were to be smashed, we'd be talking -- theoretically -- as high as 2324.70, the 'D' of this pattern. Notice that a theoretical 'buy' signal predicated on that target was triggered at 1838.30,, ticks off the so-far top of today's surge.

Gold's rally turned sloppy last week after tripping a theoretical buy signal tied to a rally target at 2083.90. It wouldn't be the first time this vehicle has disappointed us just as it seemed to be warming up. Still, the pullback from the recent high has been feeble so far, suggesting bulls are simply biding their time while wild-eyed investors remain fixated on FAANG stocks, small-caps and other whimsical themes. The hotties look likely to continue to draw interest away from bullion, since my target for the DJIA, for one, implies higher prices over the near term.  Gold can rally at the same time, to be sure, but don't get your hopes too high for a quick burst to 1880.10, a midpoint pivot shown in the chart that can serve as our minimum upside objective for now. ______ UPDATE (Apr 29, 10:22 p.m.): Looking like its nasty old self, gold took a gratuitous mid-morning plunge that has put the burden of proof back on bulls for the time being.  We'll set the bar at 1796.40 so that we don't get suckered in. That's a tick above an 'external' peak recorded April 23 on the way down.

June Gold cleared a key hurdle on Friday by an inch, triggering a theoretical buy signal tied to a 2083.90 target. First things first, however, meaning we should set our sights no higher than p=1880.10 for the time being. This midpoint Hidden Pivot can serve as a minimum upside objective for a climb that would take about 2-3 weeks, assuming the bullishness evident in Silver is present. Even though the rally has yet to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart, this is the most bullish price action we've seen in gold since last summer. A longer-term chart allows for a projection of 2286, (A=681 in October, 2008), but it would take two weekly closes above 1976 to warrant getting excited about it. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 9:45 p.m. ET): Bulls got sandbagged in the early going, generating an impulsive decline that projects to as low as 1752.90 over the near-term.  You can bottom-fish there with a 'reverse ABC' pattern using this chart's 'b'as your point 'A' for the reversal.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 6:41 p.m.): The correction never even got close to the secondary pivot at 1758.90, let alone the 'd' target $6 below it. This is bullish price action, and it projects most immediately to 1792.00. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:20 p.m.): June Gold closed above the green line (1778.10), putting a midpoint resistance at 1880.10 in play (see inset) as  minimum upside objective for the near-to-intermediate -erm.

Although the current Silver tout enthuses about possible trading opportunities, Gold's chart is about as appealing as warm beer. The most bullish thing you could say about the May contract is that it has so far avoided falling to a 1614.60 target that had looked magnetic. Last week's feint slightly above the 'C' high of the bearish pattern that produced that target has negated it, but it would take a further push exceeding Feb 23's 'external' high at 1817.60 to put the bear into hibernation. The lesser charts will be tradeable in either direction nonetheless, and we can use this big-picture view not only to board this vehicle 'mechanically', but to fantasize about its 2083.90 target.  For now, let's cross our fingers and see if the futures can get to x=1778.1. That would put p=1880.10 in play as a minimum upside objective. I don't usually render unsignaled targets in green, but without a little added 'color,' gold's chart is almost too dispiriting to contemplate.

Gold tripped a so-so mechanical short Thursday when it rallied to 1730.70, the green line. When I mentioned this in the chat room, I rated the trade a 7.0; however, on closer inspection it is not quite so appealing. For one, the three legs of the pattern are too mellow; and for two, the rally to 'x' began above the sweet spot. Because of the $14,000 initial risk on four contracts, I advised initiating the trade with an 'reverse ABC 'pattern on the hourly chart that has yet to trigger. It would reduce theoretical risk to around $1000. I am now suggesting that you cancel the trade until we've seen how gold opens following a three-day weekend. If the June contract pushes above C=1756.00 it would be as bullish a sign as we've seen in bullion in a while. Alternatively, if the futures relapse you can use 1614.60 as a downside target. That would be a back-up-the-truck opportunity to get long, as far as I'm concerned. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 6:45 p.m. EDT): This rally looks like doo-doo, with upthrusts that are failing to surpass prior peaks on the hourly chart. I'll take this as mildly bullish, since gold has a nasty habit of reversing when it looks worst, and of dying just when one feels encouraged. 

Gold's lengthy unspooling has become all but insufferable, an arrested bull market doing its best to vex and frustrate even the most patient bulls. My hunch is that the long correction will end with a brutal washout, but even then, the final low would be subject to a Hidden Pivot 'D' support. The one at 1612.30 shown in the chart would qualify, but moreso if the plunge to it is appropriately steep.  Regardless, I'd be tempted to try tightly stopped bottom-fishing at the 1683.30 midpoint pivot, or even at p2=1647.60. There are no larger corrective patterns with more authority than the small one shown because the entire slide since last August exceeded no 'external' lows of significance. The small pattern did, however, and that's why I am using it to project a possible bottom. I am not married to the washout scenario, however, and will remain alert to any subtle upturn from p or p2 as a possible watershed low. ______UPDATE (Mar 30, 10:55 a.m. ET): April Gold's plunge this morning through a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1683.30 has shortened the odds of a further fall to D=1612.30, the target given above. Here's a fresh chart. ______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:22 p.m.): Let's set the bar at 1735.60, a tick above an 'external' peak made Monday on the way down, before we wax enthusiastic about today's short-squeeze rally. _______UPDATE (Apr 1, 10:17 a.m.): June Gold triggered a 'mechanical' short today at 1720.7, stop 1756.10. It is predicated on a fall to D=1614.60, equivalent to 1735.60, basis June. I would rate the trade '7.0' -- not bad, although the implied $14,000 risk on four contracts calls for a 'camouflage' entry set-up that would reduce that to under $1000 theoretical.  Specifically, an rABC set-up on the hourly chart can be attempted

With mincing steps, April Gold has climbed modestly over the last two weeks and looked poised for something more decisive. But up or down?  My bias is bearish, implying a fall to the 1630.50 target shown (see inset). The reason for my dour outlook is that the futures have failed to surpass visually distinctive peaks on the last two rallies.  That's nothing that an uncorrected pop on Monday or Tuesday above 1768.50 wouldn't remedy, but even then a further push exceeding the 1772.90 target shown here would be needed to cushion bulls against the inevitable next bear raid. ______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 11:38 p.m.): A feeble rally has failed to exceed even a single prior peak on the hourly chart over the last two days.  Gold looks so punk, in fact, that it is probably about to feint higher to get our attention. That's okay, but let's stipulate that the rally exceed the 1754.20 peak recorded on March 18 before we take it half-seriously. _____ UPDATE (Mar 25, 6:51 p.m.): A gratuitous, $20 spike died quickly, sending gold down to a loss on the day. _______ UPDATE (Mar 26, 10:23 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.