Gold

Gold futures seem poised to head at least moderately lower this week after failing to exceed anything significant on the last rally.  The pattern shown projects to a 1751.60 Hidden Pivot support. That would negate the point 'C' low of a far bigger, bullish pattern projecting to as high as 2166.90.  December's failed rally did not quite reach the 1967.10 midpoint resistance, telegraphing the weakness that has followed. In a headline last week, I told investors not to give up on gold.  That is still my advice, although we cannot rule out the possibility that the weakness will eventually test March's watershed low at 1461.70. I seriously doubt it will get that bad, but in the meantime, absent an impulsive rally exceeding November's 1973.40 peak, a turnaround does not appear to be in the cards. ______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 5:35): How unimpressive was today's rally?  Unimpressive enough, actually, to trigger a so-so 'mechanical' short at 1835.90, stop 1864.10.  We shall see. ______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 7:40 p.m.):  The rally stopped out the point 'C' high of a bearish pattern, but I still don't trust it. I've set my snooze alarm at 1973.40, a tick above a key 'external' peak made on 11/9. If February gold prints there, bulls will gain some credibility and the futures will be on their way to a 2166.90 target I haven't mentioned in a while.

Much as I'd like to encourage you, the chart offers little reason for enthusiasm over the near term.  It was hard not to notice on the last rally that bulls were too enfeebled to reach the midpoint resistance at 1967.10 (see inset), let alone impale November 9's 'external' peak at 1973.30. Even more dispiriting, the subsequent downdraft generated a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart when it exceeded by a decisive $2.90  an 'external' low at 1820.00 recorded on December 14. Taken together, these signs suggest that we should not get our hopes too high looking out perhaps 6-9 days. The bigger picture remains bullish but unexciting.

The somewhat persuasive trendline shown in the chart yields a 1931.70 rally target at week's end that sits about 2% above current levels. I'd suggest using this number as a minimum upside objective, since the trendline looks more interesting than any Hidden Pivot patterns I can offer you at the moment. There is one projecting to 1949.80 (daily, A =1820.00 on 12/14), however, that appears serviceable as a minimum 'extension' target if 1931.80 should be easily pushed aside. Either of these number can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as 0.80 points if you've made money on the way up. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:59 p.m.): Today's so-far high has gotten within 0.60 of the 1949.80 target. Now, the 1967.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in this chart promises to take the guesswork out of what's coming next. You can make it your minimum upside objective for the very near term. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 8:02 p.m.): The intraday high of today's bull-trap rally failed not only to reach our p=1967.10 benchmark, it also failed to clear the  1973.30 'external' peak recorded on 11/9. I believe that gold sellers got the news wrong today and that the weakness was an opportunistic sucker punch. Even so, the technical warning signs are not to be ignored, so let's stipulate that the futures must close for two consecutive days above p, or trade more than $15 above it intraday, to earn back our confidence.

We briefly grabbed the weasel by the tail last week for a profitable ride, but it became harder to tell as the days wore on who was winning, bulls or bears. The small breach of an 1864.50 midpoint support on Wednesday was not sufficient to suggest the downtrend would continue to D=1838.00, nor even to warrant a presumption of further weakness.  Instead, we were left with a faintly encouraging chart that will become still moreso on a two-day close above 1891.00. That is the Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance of a pattern projecting to as high s 1922.80 over the near term.  You can find it on the 30-minute chart, where A=1848.20 on 12/16. This pattern has the potential to signal a buying opportunity, so stay tuned. _______ UPDATE (Dec 30, 7:16 p.m. EST): A second-day close above 1891.00 on the final trading day of the year would put a little heat on the bad guys, especially if the new year begins with elevated perceptions of the evolving fraudulent-election crisis. We'll have to wait and see, but my short-term bias in bullion remains moderately bullish.

There are signs that precious metals may be breaking out after correcting since August. That is why I am featuring a longer-term chart with an ambitious target at 2166.90 that equates to a 15% move above current levels. The pattern tripped  a theoretical buy signal at 1867 two weeks ago that is associated with a midpoint pivot at 1967.10 we can use as a minimum upside objective. We should allow 2-3 weeks for the rally to play out. That's assuming the four-month retracement bulls have just endured has discouraged enough of them to lighten the burden of their profit-taking on the way up.  Please note that the February contract still needs a modest push above November 16's 1904.30 'external' peak to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart. It would be the first since April. ______ UPDATE (Dec 21, 5:57 p.m. EST): The bad guys used pandemic news to smack down gold in thin trading overnight, but they failed to inflict any further damage after activity began to pick up Bulls could tactically concede a little more ground, but watch for them to turn things around decisively from p=1868.30 in this chart. _______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 8:25 p.m.): Apologies, since I neglected to link the chart I'd prepared for last night's update. Here's a new one, however, that offers a somewhat more bullish prognosis for those who got long. It shows a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1866.60, $1.70 below the one given previously, where a tradeable bounce was likely. A bounce has indeed occurred, but the small breach of the red line will warrant caution.  This means taking a partial profit this evening, with the futures trading $3 above the original entry price; and using a break-even stop-loss for what remains. Another partial profit is suggested if the

The futures have dipped slightly below the green line at 1830.60, quietly signaling a drop to at least 1781.40, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart. Bears have not exactly romped since gold topped in August at 2099, but they have dominated the action, often to devastating effect on those occasional days when conditions were right for a takedown.  The longer-term charts are unambiguously bullish, but it would appear bullion has been biding its time, presumably waiting for a signal change in the Big Picture. It is remarkable that bitcoin has usurped gold's historical role as a hedge against inflation. This anomaly seems unlikely to last, but for the time being bullion's loyal supporters will have to  get used to seeing it underperform cryptocurrency that is intrinsically valueless. ______ UPDATE (Dec 15, 8:32 a.m.): Here's a new chart that corrects the erroneous 'B' low in the original along with its downside targets. The result lowers p and D by around $5 to, respectively, 1776.80 and 1673.7.  This does NOT mean I am more bearish. In fact, other than on rigged 'takedown' days, bears seem to be struggling for every inch. Moreover, if today's so-far gratuitous rally gets rolling and exceeds 1879.80, that would invalidate the new targets. A further push exceeding 1902.40 would generate the first impulse leg we've seen on the daily chart in ages. _______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 1:22 p.m.): This morning's strong rally missed creating the impulse leg we'd wanted (see above) by five ticks.  Bulls would seem to have the gumption to get it done, but with gold, it will always be a matter of 'trust but verify'. Proof therefore awaits.

The futures have been slogging painfully toward an 1871.80 rally target that still looks like a good bet to be achieved. That implies a pullback to the green line (1829.40) can be used to get long 'mechanically' with a stop-loss at 1815.20, just beneath the pattern's point 'C' low.  A position with at least two contracts is suggested in order to allow profit-taking on an initial move from x to p= 1843.60.  If the Feb contract thrusts higher from the get-go on Sunday night, I wouldn't suggest chasing it. A second 'mechanical' entry might be possible nonetheless on a pullback from just above p2=1857.70. _______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 11:36 a.m.): A powerful rally this morning has pushed the futures to 1873.00, slightly above my target.  If you followed my simple instructions, which were predicated on buying two contracts at the green line and taking a partial profit at the red line, you came away with a profit of $5,660. Please report results in the chat room so that I can better gauge interest in this trading vehicle.  For now, let's see how long D=1871.80 holds as resistance. The sooner it is dispatched, if it is, the more bullish. _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:43 p.m.): Price  action at p=1862.00 all but guarantees more upside over the near term to at least 1899.10. Round-number resistance will be an additional impediment, but if bulls can punch through both they should be presumed headed to at least 1967.00 (daily, A=1699.50 on 6/5).  Here's the chart.  _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 9:17 a.m.): You can buy a pullback to x=1843.40 'mechanically' using a stop-loss at 1824.70. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 8:22 p.m.): In the chat room, I suggested scratching the trade because of belatedly perceived weaknesses in the A-B impulse leg. Those who'd opened a position

It can sometimes seem like there's no bottom when the Bad Guys are whalin' on gold, but bulls can at least hope for an upturn from the 1756.30 Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart. Failing that, expect to see the December contract work its way down to 1700.00, since the dirtbags who manipulate bullion prices for a living are nothing if not slaves to the obvious. Ordinarily I would suggest bottom-fishing with a tight stop, but in this case the impulse leg is ersatz and therefore unreliable, since it exceeded no external lows. The pattern could prove good enough for government work nonetheless, so don't hesitate to use and 'rABC' set-up to get long if you know how. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 9:27 p.m.): The so-far feeble bounce from a 1762.30 low has not quite negated my 1756.30 downside target, but the burden of proof now on bulls would lighten if the futures can clear a minor resistance at 1816.30 created last Wednesday on the way down. ________ UPDATE (Dec 1, 9:08 p.m.): The bounce is no longer feeble, but it is still a smidgen shy of 1817.10 [corrected] print needed to generate a trustworthy impulse leg on the hourly chart. A further thrust, especially if it is unpaused,  surpassing Nov 24's 1829.80 'external' would strongly suggest that gold's bullish reversal has gotten off the launching pad. _______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 7:24 p.m.):  In after-hours trading, the February contract poked very slightly above an external peak at 1835.50 that's equivalent to the one at 1829.50 noted above for the December. This has generated a bullish impulse leg, along with a minor, uptrending pattern that could provide some hooks for getting long. Stay tuned to the chat room for further guidance. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 6:18 p.m.): A struggle at

Gold's consolidation since July has been an ordeal for investors, but the good news is that bears will be ready to keel over dead when the time comes. They've struggled hard to push bullion lower, and even though their efforts have been helped occasionally by air pockets such as the 100-pointer we endured one day a couple of weeks ago, they know that we know these fright-mask tactics will not win in the end. For the time being, however, let's stay focused on the 1809.60 target that has kept us from getting sucked in by head-fakes and distributive rallies. This Hidden Pivot is not of the highest quality because the impulse leg is illegitimate, but the futures can still be bottom-fished with a tightly constructed 'rABC' pattern on the lesser charts. Alternatively, it would take a print at 1983.90 to sound 'taps' for bears. _______ UPDATE (Nov 24, 6:03 p.m. ET): The way this brick has been plummeting, one might think traders are dumping gold to raise cash for bitcoin. The futures have crashed the 1809.60 target with ease, implying that whatever rally is coming, unless it exceeds 1898.00, will be a short sale.