Gold's price action lately has grown too defiant of logic and even rationality to merit diligent attention. The futures got crushed for a week in mid-June, but now sellers can't even push it down to a minor 'D' correction target. Instead, the August contract rallied on Friday, presumably gratuitously, to within an inch of a level that would negate the bearish pattern. I've set an alert at 1826.50, a tick above an external peak recorded June 16 on the way down. That's where the bullish case would become, if not compelling, then at least very faintly appealing. We might also look to get short using a 'reverse ABC' set-up if the futures make it up into the range 1810-1820. My point 'a' for the trigger pattern would be 1776.30, equal to a peak recorded at 10:00 a.m . June 29 on the hourly chart. (For a bigger picture that is bearish short-term but bullish long-term, check out the current commentary, So Maybe Gold Actually Does Suck.) ______ UPDATE (Jul 6, 5:27 p.m.): The short trade suggested worked perfectly and generated a relatively quick, easy profit of around $2600 on four lots. A few subscribers reported getting aboard, some by interpolating with other gold vehicles, and covering at the red line as suggested.
Gold's less-than fascinating struggle to hold above an important midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1775.00 and a shelf of structural support constructed back in April has entered its second week. My gut feeling is that both will give way, sending the August contract down to p2=1702.80. But even if the futures were to rally instead, a move touching the green line (x=1847.10) would trip a somewhat appealing 'mechanical' short with a stop-loss at 1920.00. We'll want to attempt bottom-fishing if and when the Auggies fall to p2=1702.80, so stay tuned to the Trading Room if you're a player. Bulls looking for a glimmer of hope should set an alert at 1826.50, just above an 'external' peak recorded June 17 on the way down. _______ UPDATE (Jun 29, 10:20 p.m.): Here's a smaller bearish pattern with an interim downside target of 1739.40. A rally to x=1783.30 would trigger a weak 'mechanical' short, meaning it should be initiated only via a 'camouflage' set-up that reduce the implied risk of nearly $6000 on four lots. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 6:40 p.m.): The trade worked out perfectly, producing a $6000 gain in just a couple of hours. Shorting at 1783.30 would have been low-stress, since the futures never went higher than 1783.40 (!). As for covering the short position, the opportunity to do so came quickly and easily via a $15 plunge that followed the 1783.40 peak. Here's a chart that shows how the trade evolved.
My headlined enthusiasm for gold a few weeks ago looks to have been premature, as was my conjecture that the takedown artists who sometimes gang up on precious metals were finally outmatched by a waxing bull market. It would appear they are still very much in control, although I doubt they'll be able to push quotes much below 1600. That would represent a nearly 20% correction off last August's 2063 high -- perhaps all that could be imagined, given the deafening drumbeat these days warning of a horrific inflation that supposedly lies ahead. For now, I'll recommend using p2=1700.70 (see inset) as a minimum downside projection for the near term. However, if this Hidden Pivot is easily breached, brace for more downside to at least D=1627.80. Alternatively, an unpaused upthrust exceeding 1826.40 would give bulls some breathing room, although it would not negate the bearish targets; that would require a print at 1919.30. _______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 11:34 p.m.): Bull have hung in there at p=1773.50, but the so far $12 breach of this midpoint Hidden Pivot suggests it will be a losing battle. Let's see what a new days brings.
Gold turned leaden last week, although it managed to hold its own against the takedown artists. Buying interest in bullion was nil as the action shifted back to the lunatic stocks. Usually that begets a gratuitous $100 swoon in gold, but DaBoyz evidently couldn't round up the few sellers it would have taken to accomplish this. The result was another week's consolidation at an 1880.49 midpoint pivot associated with a rally target, previously given, at 2082.40 (see inset). Bulls were on the run at the close, however, so here's a downtrending ABC pattern you can use to judge whether the selling is likely to continue. It tripped an enticing 'mechanical' short on the bounce to the green line (1892.70), but I doubt the futures will fall as far as the 1850.20 target. If they do, you can bottom-fish there with a tight stop-loss, good till 10 a.m. ET Monday. _____ UPDATE (Jun 14, 10:18 a.m. ET): The trade recommended above worked nicely, producing a gain so far of up to $7600 for anyone who got long at 1850.s0 as advised. Here's the chart. A stop-loss at 1845.60 or lower would have held the position. Use a target of 1880.10 for what remains of your position. That is 'd' of this rabc set-up on the 60-minute chart: a=1871.80 on 6/10 at 9:00 a.m. ET. _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 12:25 a.m.): The pullback to x=1854.3 generated a mechanical 'buy', but the trade would have been exited on the run-up to within an inch of p=1862.90. I have nothing more to suggest at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Jun 17, 1:13 a.m.): There was no reason for gold to sell off with stocks on the non-news from the Fed, but the fact that it did anyway suggests DaSleazeballs have more control over it, at
August Gold has closed above the red line (1880.40) on all but one day since exceeding it for the first time on May 19. This easy flirtation with a key midpoint resistance suggests that an eventual push to the 2082.40 target is unlikely to be labored. This is not withstanding last week's $45 dive, about which two things could be said: 1) it was not an $80 swoon, as many of them have been since last August's watershed high; and 2) in true bull-market fashion, the plunge has very nearly been recouped in just a day. The pattern shown should work well for 'mechanical' set-ups and profit-taking, but we shouldn't get our hopes too high that we'll be able to augment long positions with such fire-sale bargains on the way up.
We've focused on a 2083.90 rally target that remains a strong bet to be reached. More immediately, however, let's train our attention on the 1923.90 target shown, since it could conceivably yield a bull trade over the next day or so. Specifically, I'll recommend bidding 1894.20, stop 1884.20, if the futures have gone no higher than 1916.00. The implied entry risk is $4000 on four contracts, but you can interpolate using the micro-futures to cut that by as much as 90%. As always, an easy move past a Hidden Pivot resistance as clear as this one would be telegraphing a continuation of the rally. _______ UPDATE (June 1, 2:39 p.m. ET): The 1894.20 bid I'd suggested missed the intraday low by just three ticks. I have not established a tracking position, however, because the futures went a tad higher than I'd anticipated before swooning $25 to nearly kiss our stink bid. Several subscribers reported doing the trade nonetheless, and it is sufficiently profitable at the moment -- i.e., around $1000 per contract -- that you should have little difficulty managing the risk. A 1923.90 rally target still obtains. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 10:23 a.m.): Ha-ha. Just when I mention “no takedowns,” DaSleazeballs sock the futures with a $45 loss. The proximal cause of this fake selloff, abetted by evidently still-abundant, fearful clowns, was allegedly ‘bullish’ unemployment data. Stay the course! ______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 9:24 p.m.): Today's sucker-punch had gold reeling for barely an hour. Let's see if the menacing-looking close just off the lows has real teeth. Night owls up for a little excitement can try bottom-fishing at 18.59.20, stop 1858. 50. That's the midpoint HP support, on the 60-minute chart, of a= 1900.50 (7:00 a.m., 6/3). _______ UPDATE (Jun 4, 9:46 a.m.): A low of 1855.6o stopped out the trade before
June Gold has consistently been exceeding minor targets while showing increasing resistance to the $50 takedowns that have plagued bullion since last summer. This gives me increasing confidence that the 2083.90 target shown will be achieved. It was first broached here six weeks ago, a feature of a bullish 'reverse ABC' pattern that looks unlikely to fail us. That means not only that the levels can be used for 'mechanical' entries, but also that last week's penetration of p=1880.10 was undeniably bullish. Notice that the thrust also took out two 'external' peaks from January, adding further evidence that the bozos who have impeded gold in its role as an inflation hedge are finally starting to smarten up. This is good news for gold bugs, though not so much for lovers of bitcoin. ______ UPDATE (May 25, 10:51 p.m. ET): June Gold was wafting effortlessly higher late Tuesday, having pushed through round-number resistance at 1900 with little hesitation. The futures looked bound most immediately for the 1918.60 target shown in this chart, but an easy move past it would telegraph still more upside over the near term. _______ UPDATE (May 27, 5:58 p.m.): We'll use the pattern shown, with a 1944.90 target, for the time being. The futures would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal on a pullback to x=1882.70, but because initial risk would be more than $2000 with the required stop-loss at 1861.90, I'll recommend the trade only to those who are able to cut it down to size with a 'camouflage' set-up. _______ UPDATE (May 28, 11:06 p.m.): The trade worked perfectly off a textbook-perfect pattern that has produced a so-far gain of around $1700 per contract. The trampoline bounce followed an 1880.90 low just 80 cents beneath the suggested bid. In practice, the trade would have produced a quick and
Bulls spent the week fending off and frustrating sellers before lurching higher toward the 1885.40 target shown. It is a Hidden Pivot of lesser degree than the one at 1880.10 given here earlier, but the pattern is so shapely and promising that it justifies raising the target itself. The pattern can be used to manage the risk of a long position or to acquire one 'mechanically' on the way up. The bad guys seem to be losing their grip, and it is obvious they are having increasing difficulty pushing gold sharply lower no matter what the news or mood on Wall Street. The effect is subtle, but it is most certainly bullish. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 10:07 p.m.): The futures achieved our 1885.40 rally target and then some with a thrust to 1891.30. That's not much of an overshoot, but in the context of a target as clear and compelling as this one, we should infer that still higher prices impend. It is a welcome sign that the takedown artists appear to be in a coma after having been punched senseless during the last two weeks.
The 1880.10 rally target first flagged here a while back now looks very likely to be achieved, and sooner than I'd expected just a week ago. Back-to-back rallies on Thursday and Friday caught bulls and bears by surprise, although the former are likely to remain skeptical, given the many setbacks they've suffered over the last ten months. More interesting than the 1880.10 target is one at 2324.70 activated by the thrust slightly past the green line (1838.30) of a significantly larger pattern. We'll need to see how well buyers handle p=2000.50 of that pattern before we can determine the odds of a further run-up to 2324, but p itself looks no worse than an even bet to be reached. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 11:08 p.m.): Make that, achieved later rather than sooner, since gold has lapsed back into its wonted torment-those-who-love-it-most mode.
Gold has turned punk again, well shy of the 1880.10 midpoint pivot shown in the chart, but also of February 16's external peak at 1817.60. Exceeding this structural resistance might have offered encouragement; alas, the futures went no higher than 1798. Now, all that bulls have to hang onto is mid-April's successful stab at the green line, which triggered a highly theoretical buy signal. It also activated p=1880.10 as a minimum upside projection, but this goal looks distant, if not to say unattainable, in the context of the daily chart. Silver, as I keep remarking, looks better -- just not 'better enough' at the moment to drag gold higher through layers of resistance. Where are the robinhood and reddit kiddies when you need them? _______ UPDATE (May 7, 9:13 a.m. ET): With a couple of rare, back-to-back leaps, an energized gold has put my 1880.10 price objective within easy reach. It is a minimum target, but if buyers can impale it on first contact, that would shorten the odds of a further push to 2083.90, the 'D' target of a larger bullish pattern stretching back nearly a year. And if that Hidden Pivot resistance were to be smashed, we'd be talking -- theoretically -- as high as 2324.70, the 'D' of this pattern. Notice that a theoretical 'buy' signal predicated on that target was triggered at 1838.30,, ticks off the so-far top of today's surge.
