Gold futures seem poised to head at least moderately lower this week after failing to exceed anything significant on the last rally. The pattern shown projects to a 1751.60 Hidden Pivot support. That would negate the point ‘C’ low of a far bigger, bullish pattern projecting to as high as 2166.90. December’s failed rally did not quite reach the 1967.10 midpoint resistance, telegraphing the weakness that has followed. In a headline last week, I told investors not to give up on gold. That is still my advice, although we cannot rule out the possibility that the weakness will eventually test March’s watershed low at 1461.70. I seriously doubt it will get that bad, but in the meantime, absent an impulsive rally exceeding November’s 1973.40 peak, a turnaround does not appear to be in the cards. ______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 5:35): How unimpressive was today’s rally? Unimpressive enough, actually, to trigger a so-so ‘mechanical’ short at 1835.90, stop 1864.10. We shall see. ______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 7:40 p.m.): The rally stopped out the point ‘C’ high of a bearish pattern, but I still don’t trust it. I’ve set my snooze alarm at 1973.40, a tick above a key ‘external’ peak made on 11/9. If February gold prints there, bulls will gain some credibility and the futures will be on their way to a 2166.90 target I haven’t mentioned in a while.
$+GCG21 – February Gold (Last:1868.50)