Gold

I searched my archive for any mention of the neon target at 1788.7 shown in the chart but found nothing. This is embarrassing, like a scavenger failing to spot a Harley 'Knucklehead" rusting under a pile of hay in a New Hampshire barn. If I'd noticed this pattern, I would have been less enthused about touting the mechanical buy at 1711  a week ago. (I am relieved, however, that no one has mentioned it since, even some subscribers who said they'd done the trade.)  Be that as it may, the position went in-the-black for long enough to allow partial-profit-taking, and it could still come home. The hourly chart is still bullish as well, even if disappointing at the moment, and an ambitious target at 1832.20 broached here earlier remains theoretically viable.  I would hazard a safe way to get aboard, but the pattern that has traced out over the last couple of weeks is distributive and about as appealing as off-brand ketchup. _______ UPDATE (Apr 28, 9:16 p.m. EDT): A three-day dirge has taken a toll on buyers without doing much technical damage, even on the lesser charts. We'll keep an eye on the so-far ratcheting downtrend nevertheless, since it began from a high that failed to reach the 1779.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot of a clear bullish pattern. This is slightly bearish but would not become concerning unless the downtrend breaches 1666.20, the point 'C' low of the bullish pattern.

Buyers blew away a Hidden Pivot target at 1782.30 that we'd been using for a while and June Gold now looks bound for at least the 1832.20 target shown. The futures are all but guaranteed to get there if they can close above 1777.40 for two consecutive days or reach 1800.00 intraday.  We can use the pattern shown to trade the rally confidently. Most immediately, that would mean placing a 'mechanical' bid at 1711.11, the green line, stop 1670.60. A somewhat riskier trigger could be fashioned using p=1751.50, stop 1724.60, but I'd suggest paper-trading this one if you are unfamiliar with 'mechanical' entries. Even if you know what you're doing it would be best to convert the mechanical signal into a less risky alternative. Tune to the chat room for further guidance if the opportunity gels. Let me also mention, just to be on the record with it, that there's another rally target at 1886.20 that comes from the continuous daily chart. The futures would need to push decisively above the 1777.40 'secondary' pivot referenced above to imply that the higher number is a done deal. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE (Apr 15, 9:44 p.m.): A buy at the red line (see above) never got airborne, but a 'mechanical' bid at 1711.10 still looks promising -- the moreso if it occurs early in the session. ______ UPDATE (Apr 16, 8:30 p.m.): Here it comes!  The best 'mechanical' trades will often test our nerves to the limit, since they trigger at the end points of brutal countertrend moves. This one would go 'live' at 1711.10, stop 1670.60, for a shot at 1751 or higher -- that's risking more than $4,000 per contract  -- but I'd suggest watching from the sidelines if you are merely curious about how well they work. The

The June futures have topped so far this evening less than a point from the 1775.10 rally target I'd flagged Sunday night ("Gold is down an unpersuasive $24 at the moment...").  The target may have been especially useful to subscribers who felt discouraged by gold's $30 drop after Thursday's close. I'd suggested buying on weakness using a 'mechanical' bid at 1722.90. It failed by a hair to trigger, but the point of it was to avoid hoping for the gift of a pullback all the way to the green line, where we initiate most of our 'mechanical' trades.  The chart raised the prospect of an rABC short, but it actually triggered at 1772.20 just after the chart was drawn and produced a $370/contract gain on paper. Here's the rABC pattern on the 30-minute chart: a=1772.80 (4/13 at 4:00 p.m.) Bulletin:  Gold's pop just now above 1775.10 means the June contract is on its way to at least 1782.30, a bigger-picture target we've been using for quite a while that could prove challenging to beat.

Gold is down an unpersuasive $24 at the moment, perhaps resting for more-challenging adversity in the wee hours. We remain focused on two rally targets nonetheless: one at 1782.30 that is tied to a big pattern that's been in play for more than a week; and another, lesser Hidden Pivot at 1775.10 that is shown in the chart.  Ordinarily we look to bid patterns like this one at the green line -- here 1696.80, and an implied stop-loss at 1670.60.  That's risking $24,000 on a four-lot trade, so I am recommending it only to those with the Hidden Pivot chops to cut the risk by 80% or more.  A buy at  the green line would entail about the same dollar risk (using a 1696.80 bid, stop 1670.60), although it would be somewhat less hazardous, as well- developed green-line entries tend to be. By that point, depending on the time of day, it may be possible to substitute GLD, or options on it, for the futures contract. _______ UPDATE (Apr 13, 8:15 a.m. EDT): The trade recommended above missed triggering at 11:00 p.m. by a micron. Cancel the order, since I'm not keen on sloppy seconds in this instance. If anyone filled the order using an rABC (a=1731.80 at 7:00 p.m. on the hourly chart) or a camo set-up, please let me know so that I can establish a tracking position. It could have produced a profit so far of as much as $8,600 on four lots.  

The 1679.20 rally target we used last week is still very much in play, but it will take a decisive thrust past it to imply buyers have the moxie to reach D=1782.30. A two-day close above the lower number would significantly shorten the odds of a move to at least p2=1730.70, but an intraday spike to around 1700 would be equally encouraging. That could conceivably set up a 'mechanical' buying opportunity on a pullback to x=1637 (the green line), so keep that in mind if the futures fall hard enough to make your stomach churn after rallying over the next day or two. _______ UPDATE (April 6, 8:38 p.m. EDT): Buyers have pushed the futures decisively past the 1730 secondary pivot this evening, implying they'll have little trouble reaching the 1782.30 target flagged above. Once past it, the June contract should be presumed bound for the 1857.90 Hidden Pivot shown in this chart.  This target is equivalent to one at 1852.00 that I projected for the April contract two weeks ago, when gold was $150 lower. _______ UPDATE (Apr 7, 9:40 p.m.) Buyers actually did have trouble when Monday night's running start reversed and turned into a rout. The 1782.30 target remains viable nonetheless, but we'll need to monitor June Gold's ups and downs closely to find a safe spot for re-entry.

June Gold's steep dive appears bound for the 1561.20 target shown in the chart. The pattern is a good one, and even a little gnarly, implying that a tradeable bounce from very near the target is likely. Your trading bias should be bearish until such time as 1561.20 is reached, but bottom-fishing will be at your discretion. If this Hidden Pivot support is easily exceeded, it would suggest still-lower prices are coming, possibly a test of round-number support near 1500. Tune to the chat-room for entry set-ups in real time that could conceivably hold entry risk down._______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 9:09 a.m. EDT): The futures are up $28 at the moment, trading at 1619.40, and would negate the bearish target if they touch 1629.50. It would also put in play a rally target at p=1679.20 (60-min, A= 1491.70 on 3/23 at 3:00 a.m.). _______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 11:22 p.m.): The futures appear to be consolidating Thursday night for a run at 1679.20. Here's the chart.

The bullion bankers' fright-mask tactics should have scared no one, since gold futures are obviously consolidating near the high end of March's astounding $250 swoon. My minimum upside objective is 1751.70, the secondary Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown, but any higher would portend more price expansion to at least 1852.00. I waxed skeptical here earlier that this rally could hit $2000, but because the demand for physical has begun to overwhelm supply, I am more optimistic that the move could get legs beyond my target.

Yesterday in the chat room, I asserted that gold should have been up $120, not a mere $70, to discount the Fed's planned dollar giveaway to...EVERYBODY. However, I was unmindful of the fact that the supposedly omniscient stock market is actually as dumb as a fence post, hence the delayed reaction. It can be dumber than a fence post, actually. Recall how it took more than two weeks for stocks to drop after people began to keel over dead in Wuhan. If Feinstein and Burr knew enough to sell their shares, 'the market' should have too. Anyway, I do NOT see inflation on the horizon, and that is why I think this rally is unlikely to hit $2000. We should enjoy it while it lasts, though. It is guaranteed to hit a minimum 1731.20 (basis April) over the very near term, or 1852.00 if any higher, with a possible stall at 1751.70.  The chart shows the provenance of these targets.

For all of last week's violent price swings, the April contract appears to be basing above 1450. The 1407.30 downside target remains viable nonetheless, and the futures did in fact trigger a 'mechanical' short to that number on Friday at 1517.60 (240-min, A=1597.90 on 3/13).  Looking at a much bigger picture, the chart (inset) stretches back a decade in order to put the bull cycle begun in 2016 in a useful perspective.  You don't need to be a technician to see that the $260 surge begun last November, encouraging though it was, fell well shy of the moon shot that would have signaled much higher prices. Specifically, the upthrust failed to generate a strong impulse leg on the weekly chart when it died well shy of the key peak at 1794 recorded in 2012. That doesn't necessarily mean the high won't eventually be exceeded, only that it could take quite a while -- meaning years -- for it to happen. I am not ruling out a spectacular bounce shortly from somewhere above 1400, but if there is instead a protracted rally, even a strong, steady one, its potential would likely be limited. _______ UPDATE (Mar 23, 5:57 p.m. EDT): Gold's biggest rally in recent memory failed to exceed even a single 'external' peak on the hourly chart. The nearest lies at 1574.80, about $5 above today's high, but we'll reserve judgment about the health of the uptrend until we've seen a little more of it.