The 1838.10 target we used last week to stay on the right side of a challenging uptrend still looks like a good bet to be reached. Even certitude about this is no license to use a buy-and-hold strategy, since the risk/reward ratio stinks most of the time. The best way to get onboard when trading a vehicle that is as crazy-stupid and nasty as this one is with a mechanical bid. I flagged one last week at 1802, but with a warning that the the entry risk on four contracts was nearly $4000. As it happened, the position went $3200 in the hole on Thursday before the futures pulled out of a tailspin and reversed course sharply on Friday. At the close this gambit was showing a paper gain of around $3600 — proof again that mechanical trades work well if they are predicated on textbook impulse legs. Subscribers unfamiliar with the tactic should paper-trade ‘mechanicals’ whenever I tout them to build confidence. ______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 9:06 p.m.): The 1838.10 target given above looks like a lock-up at this point, but here’s a bigger-picture target at 1994.40 to wrap your head around. This is the first time I’ve mentioned it, and although I can’t offer any guarantees, it would become an odd-on bet to be reached following a decisive push past p=1833.10 or a two-day close above that midpoint Hidden Pivot. _______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 8:36 a.m.): It is most encouraging that buyers have blown past 1833.10 this morning with a spike to 1843.20. Usually Comex futures give up most such gains achieved at this time of day, but perhaps not. In any event, the rally certainly hasn’t hurt bulls’ chances of seeing 1994.40, perhaps soon. If this is the beginning of a powerful bull phase, it should happen within the next 7-10 days.
GCQ20 – August Gold (Last:1819.90)