Gold

Thursday's fleeting upthrust tripped a theoretical buy signal at the green line. Ordinarily it would be easy to overlook or ignore it, since buy signals since late August have come to naught. However, gold's price action has been so tedious and frustrating in the interim that we should take extra care to avoid missing the turn when it comes, especially since the impulsive thrust that occurred last summer was so powerful and promising. Most immediately, we'll use p=1529.50 as a minimum upside objective and trade it aggressively. In practice, this will mean looking for rABC and  'mechanical' setups in charts of small degree. Stay tuned to the Trading Room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (Dec 23, 6:22 p.m. EST): The futures are headed most immediately to 1497.30 (60-min, A=1459.80 in 12/2 at 4:00 a.m.; B=1491.60 (12/12). I expect a stall, possibly tradeable, within two ticks of the target. But if buyers blow past it, that would shorten the odds of reaching p=1529.50, my current minimum objective in a larger pattern. ________ UPDATE (Dec 26, 12:45 a.m.): Buyers handled the 1497.30 resistance with ease, all but clinching more upside to the p=1529.50 target noted above. It was first broached here 11 days ago with Feb Gold trading nearly $40 lower.  An easy push through it would shift our attention to the pattern's 'D' target at 1605.90. This number seemed like pie-in-the-sky when the buy signal triggered on December 12, but it is growing less farfetched by the day. ________ UPDATE (Dec 31, 4:43 a.m.): The futures have hit 1529.00 tonight, effectively fulfilling the target given above. A two-day close above this Hidden Pivot resistance, or an intraday spike to around 1538, would shorten the odds of a further rally to 1605.90. ______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 10:24 p.m.): Tensions with Iran have

Gold has disappointed and bullyragged its most devoted fans for more than three months, but it could become an enticing speculative buy as it approaches a key low at 1418.90 recorded back in August. The bearish pattern shown is not the largest among several alternatives, but it shows promise nonetheless to deliver a tradeable bounce at or very near the pattern's 1440.00 target.  I'd prefer to initiate the trade via an rABC pattern, since that's probably the least risky way to catch the falling javelin.  If so, we'll look at using A=1465.40 (from 12/3 at 2:00 a.m.) Stay tuned, however, since the set-up will depend on how easily the downtrend achieves 1440.00, assuming it does. ______ UPDATE (Dec 10, 9:12 a.m. EST): The futures are rallying  moderately even though the S&Ps are slightly higher. This is unusual, so we'll give bulls the slight benefit of the doubt. You can use this pattern to trade the move. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 9:07 p.m.): Zzzzzzzz. _______ UPDATE (Dec 11, 10:52 p.m.): The pop through p=1478.10 has made the February contract a good bet to reach the 1493.10 target shown. If there's a pullback to X=1470.50 first, ideally in the first half of the session, it would trigger a mechanical buy, stop 1462.90. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 11:23 p.m.): How's that for nasty? Even so, based on reports in the Trading Room, subscribers who got long for a shot at the 1493.10 target got out with a nice profit before the futures reversed precipitously. From a high just $1.50 shy of my target, they dove $36. Overall, the price action was neither bullish nor bearish, just nutty. Gold appears to be biding its time until the stock market cools off and the chimps turn their attention to 'risk-on.' ________ UPDATE (Dec 30, 5:47

Friday's exuberant but inexplicable leap may have felt encouraging at the time, but a chart that goes back a few months makes the rally look far from impressive. Even so, bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt for the moment, since the move was indisputably going their way at the closing bell. It would take a print at x=1491.30, the green line, to trip a theoretical buy signal, but only 1474.80 would be needed to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. That could set up an appealing trading opportunity intraday, so stay tuned to the Trading Room if you're eager to play. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 10:05 a.m. EST): The futures have taken wing this morning and appear bound for a minimum 1489.50. If this Hidden Pivot is easily exceeded, bulls could take heart. Here's the updated chart. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 11:09 p.m.): Buyers should have been able to reach the 1489.50 target shown in this chart on the first try but failed. Disappointment would fade if they get second wind and take out the 1496.30 'external' peak shown, but until such time as that happens we shouldn't get our hopes too high. _______ UPDATE (Dec 4, 6:14 p.m.): The futures dove $12 after peaking at 1489.90, four ticks above the target flagged above. That is well shy of the 1496.30 I'd said was needed to turn the intraday charts unambiguously bullish.  I'm going to raise the bar a tad just to be cautious, stipulating that the rally achieve 1503.10, just above the external peak shown in this chart, before I ratchet down my skepticism. Incidentally, a Trading Room denizen reported having used the 1489.50 target to get long and exit the position at the top for a nice profit.  He posted as follows: "Exited the

The futures were  slipping below the water line Monday evening, threatening to negate the support of a 1454.40 midpoint Hidden Pivot support. It is tied to a 1429.50 target given here earlier, although it's possible the downtrend will go no further than p2=1441.90. The bad news is that that is my minimum downside objective for the near term. Clearly, gold cannot swim upstream, not even a little bit, as the stock market continues its by-now historical wilding spree.  Here's a step-by-step forecast for the next couple of weeks that I posted in the chat room. Let's see how I do: "First, a decisive breach of p=1454.40; then, instead of continuing down to D=1429.50, GCZ reverses sharply to trigger a not-unappetizing mechanical short at x=1466.80. But instead of doing what it is supposed to do -- i.e., delivering a quick profit by plunging to p=1454.40 -- it continues higher, breaking above C=1479.20 to turn everyone bullish. The rally will come within 1.20 of some minor ABCD target; then the uptrend, on an overnight spike as usual, sputters out and dies, reversing punitively." (Note: 1436.10 for the February contract is equivalent to the one at 1429.50.) _______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 9:16 p.m.):  Click here for a play-play scenario that I posted last week; and here for a chart that shows how it would play out for the February contract.  So far, price action has gone more or less according to plan. If you're interested only in the bottom line, Feb Gold could fall to 1436.10, but don't be surprised if the little sonofabitch head-fakes first.  It'd take a print at 1496.40 to rouse my enthusiasm once again.

Gold's recent low at 1446.20 overshot the 1447.50 target shown by just $1.30, which is neither bullish nor bearish. However, the bounce would need to exceed 1489.20 -- or better yet, 1495.90 -- to hint that the correction that has obtained since early September is over. These numbers correspond to external peaks recorded on the hourly chart on, respectively, November 7 and November 6.  Please note that they are not visible on the chart accompanying this tout, but they are viable nonetheless. Recent price action has been dispiriting, marked by the December contract's failure to reach an 'easy' rally target at 1485.90 (60-minute, a= 1446.20 on 11/12).  This was particularly disappointing because the A-B impulse leg of the pattern was strong. The target will remain in play nevertheless until such time as C=1456.60 is breached. That would put a downside target at 1429.50 in play (A=1495.90 on 11/6).

The stock's bounce from a 1447.50 correction target hit on Wednesday could have produced a gain of as much as $1000 per contract for subscribers who traded it. Those who leveraged the target appeared to have taken profits near the 1467.40 threshold where I'd said the rally would become a better bet. And so it has, mainly because the rally exceeded 1467.40 by two ticks, generating a bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts. However, the futures have made no more headway, so we'll have to wait and see what the new day brings.  The chart shows at a glance why pulls are not yet out of the woods with respect to the 1425.00 downside target. It will remain theoretically viable in any case as long as 1525.80 is not exceeded to the upside. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 7:49 p.m.): A timid, three-day rally has generated some minor impulse legs, but the burden of proof remains on bulls for now. The 1425.00 downside target is still a good bet to be reached, but odds would lengthen if buyers can push the futures above the 1491.10 peak shown here.

Shhhh. I've refrained from drum-rolling the 1447.50 correction target (see  inset) because it looks so likely to produce a precisely tradeable bounce. I didn't want to queer the opportunity by giving it too much attention, but now you won't have to worry about bumping heads with the riff-raff. Friday's weak rally did nothing to change the odds that the futures will get there, but how far and how long the bounce goes is unknowable at the moment. The chart appeared here last week, but I didn't explain why the pattern is so enticing. Mainly, it is a matter of the A-B impulse leg exceeding a true external low at 1488.90. This set-up is textbook-perfect, and subtly so, and that's why it behooves us to make the most of it. _____ UPDATE (Nov 11, 9:15): My forecast caught the intraday low within $1.40, but also the tradeable bottom of a so-far $10 bounce. Only two subscribers mentioned this, so I have not established a tracking position.  If you would like me to continue following gold futures, please say so in the room so that I am able to gauge interest in them. ______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 7:48 p.m.): Subscribers were able to re-use the 1447.50 target to bottom-fish for a second straight day. Monday's gambit yielded a theoretical, four-contract gain of slightly more than $3000; today's could have netted as much as $5000.  Check posts in the trading room between 10 and 2 if you're skeptical these trades worked for-real. The rally was continuing Monday night, but it would need to surpass  1467.40 to imply it's about to get legs. Subs should have cashed out half of the position by now in any case, with the remainder tied to a wide 'impulsive stop-loss' on the 15-minute chart. At the moment, that

Gold has been stalled for three months and is getting mighty tiresome. This is notwithstanding an upthrust last week that allowed subscribers who followed my detailed guidance to make a quick $3400 profit on four contracts. The trade was pegged to a 1535.90 target that has helped keep us on the right side of the trend for nearly a month.  If buyers should push past it this week, 1547.60 would be the next stop, and thence 1586.10 (daily chart, A=1412.10 on 8/1). Rather than pretend we have a crystal ball, we'll simply wait to see what bulls can deliver. So far, considering stocks are in the grip of lotus eaters, bullion has held its own. This is encouraging, but don't expect much until the bull run in stocks falters. _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 5:41 p.m. EST): The high and low of gold's dive today fell within the tedious range of the last month and has not damaged the pattern projecting to our aging target at 1535.90. Psychological damage is another matter, since the selloff, possibly gratuitous, has occurred in the space of just one day. But if we stay focused purely on 'technicals', there is not yet any reason to despair. _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 10:42 p.m.): Sure this is depressing. But even if the so-far $100 selloff from early September's high had been three times as bad it wouldn't negate the huge bull move that began from 1208 fifteen months ago.  This nasty correction has a little farther to go before it hits a Hidden Pivot support that could turn gold around. It lies at 1447.50 and can be used to bottom-fish.  It can also serve as a minimum downside target for the moment.

Careful! I'd practically guaranteed a run-up to at least 1535.90 over the near term, but it was not to be. Bulls who were counting on it got sandbagged on Friday -- or perhaps worse, since the high occurred just inches from the secondary pivot, 1521.40.  Hidden Pivot geezers will recall that when a rally reverses from very close to p2, the retracement often goes on to stop out the point 'C' low of the pattern. This is known as 'Matt's Curse', named after the 15th Century explorer who set sail for the southern tip of Florida but got no further than the Bermuda Triangle  Matt's Curse has yet to be statistically validated, but even so, the gratuitous nastiness of Friday's reversal warrants caution, since it suggests that we, meaning everyone who trades this vehicle, had grown just a tad too bullish. If the retracement comes down to the green line (x=1492.50), I'd be tempted to execute a 'mechanical' buy there, stop 1478.00, but let's play it by ear for now. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 8:05 p.m. ET): The trade triggered, but you should check the Trading Room for alternative entry strategies (and my rating, a 6.9), since the 'mechanical' one has initial risk of nearly $1,500 per contract. Just one subscriber, using mini-contracts, reported getting aboard. I'd suggest taking off at least half if the futures make it to p=1507.00. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 8:57 a.m.):  A nearly $30 rally from yesterday's  headless-chicken low has hit 1512.20 so far, allowing exit from half of a four-contract position at $1507.  The gain on two contracts would have been $1900 for anyone who did the trade. Offer another contract to close at 1535.40, half a point below the original target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 5:49 p.m.): Bring the offer to sell one