Gold

December Gold's slight slippage beneath the midpoint support at 1281.30 shown in the chart (click on inset) is mildly bearish, implying as it does that sellers are about to push the futures down to at least 1254.10.  If and when the decline hits 1275.00, I'd recommend a 'mechanical' short on any subsequent 'lazy' rally back up to the red line. A stop-loss at 1290.40 is recommended.  This trade is intended only for subscribers who are comfortable using 'mechanical' entry set-ups. ________ UPDATE (Oct 23, 6:27 p.m.): Gold rallied today, generating a slightly promising impulse leg on the hourly chart. However, I'd suggest withholding the benefit of the doubt from bulls until we see how they handle the two precise benchmarks shown in this chart._______ UPDATE (Oct 24, 6:26 p.m.): Bulls in fact handled our benchmarks poorly, relapsing into their wonted dirge after topping at 1285.30, a measly 0.70 above the lower resistance shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (Oct 25, 8:24 p.m.): The futures fought off sellers all day, yielding little ground. Even so, the 1254.10 downside target remains valid in theory and is still in play. A 1286.30 print on Thursday would put bulls mildly back on the offensive.

A short-lived rally from a midpoint support at 1281.30 (click on inset) came crashing back to down to the pivot on Friday. Although this Hidden Pivot has yet to be breached decisively, the burden of proof will be on bulls as the new week begins. Specifically, they will to push this brick above 1317.10 in the days ahead to show that they are serious.  Failing that, we should expect the decline to continue  down to 1254.10, a target broached here earlier.  This is frustrating price action, to be sure, but it's encouraging that bullion hasn't completely broken down at a time when institutional firepower has been trained almost entirely on the stock market.

December Gold's slight slippage beneath the midpoint support at 1281.30 shown in the chart (click on inset) is mildly bearish, implying as it does that sellers are about to push the futures down to at least 1254.10.  If and when the decline hits 1275.00, I'd recommend a 'mechanical' short on any subsequent 'lazy' rally back up to the red line. A stop-loss at 1290.40 is recommended.  This trade is intended only for subscribers who are comfortable using 'mechanical' entry set-ups. ______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 8:03 p.m. EDT): Today's price action didn't trigger the short suggested above, but neither did it disrupt the bearish target at 1254.10. The rally was bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, however, and that's why we should give the uptrend the benefit of the doubt.  If it exceeds 1298.40 on Friday, then goes on to better a middling Hidden Pivot resistance at 1300.40, you can use 1323.20 as a target.

I'm tracking a single-contact position with a cost basis that has been reduced by profit-taking to 1204.80. At a current price of 1306.10, that would imply a theoretical gain so far of a little more than $10,000. On Friday, the futures leaped on the opening bar to 1304.90, a single tick from the 1304.80 target I'd sent out the night before.  After a moderate pullback of about $4, they reversed direction and headed higher into the close, topping at 1306.40.  This is bullish price action that implies the uptrend is very likely to continue. My immediate target is 1312.90, provided the futures can push past the 1306.80 midpoint pivot shown (see inset).  If the move through that number is quick and decisive, we should see more progress to as high as 1320.90 over the near term (60-minute, A=1262.80 on 10/6).  Raise the  stop-loss to 1286.70 for now, day order, but plan on hedging the long position with GLD options if and when 1320.90 is closely approached. Specifically, I'll recommend shorting one GLD Nov 3 125 call if GCZ17 is trading above 1319.80.  I estimate the calls will be trading for about 1.30-1.40 if the target is reached within a week. Mark the order good-till-canceled. _______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 10:35 p.m. EDT): Gold gave up all of Friday's nice gains and then some when the bad guys pounded the futures late in the session for who-knows-what reason. This generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart, but I'll suggest using the 10-minute chart shown to get a precise read on the downtrend's strength. If the 1292.80 midpoint support gives way easily, look for more slippage down to at least d=1287.20. _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 10:08 a.m.): This morning's downdraft stopped out the position by generating an even more powerful impulse

I am tracking a single-contact position with a cost basis that has been reduced by profit-taking to 1204.80. At a current price of 1293.10, that would imply a theoretical gain so far of nearly $9000. As is my custom, I track positions only when subscribers have reported initiating trades with actual money, based on explicit recommendations I have made, or on precise reversal targets that I've calculated using the Hidden Pivot Method. We are swinging for the fences with one contract that remains from an original four, all purchased when December Gold bottomed on Friday exactly at a correction target sent out the night before. The implied big-picture rally target is 1414.10, meaning we could conceivably rack up another $11,000 in gains before the bull cycle begun in July has run its course. In any event, I'll recommend using the 60-minute chart to fashion an 'impulsive' stop-loss like the one shown (see inset). That means you should exit what's left of the position if a downtrend exceeds two prior lows on the hourly chart without an upward correction after the first low has been breached.  The lower of those lows lies at 1277.70. ______ UPDATE (Oct 11, 4:26 p.m.): We continue to hold a single-contract tracking position with a cost basis of 1204.80.  The futures are bound most immediately for the 1298.80 target shown, but if buyers are serious they should be able to make short work of it.  That would indicate still higher prices are likely. For Thursday, stick with the 1277.60 stop-loss implied above. _______ UPDATE (Oct 12, 9:25 p.m.): The futures bettered my 1298.80 target by $1 and now look bound for 1304.80, based on the pattern shown.  A decisive move through p=1298.30 would all but clinch it. Raise the stop-loss to 1281.70 for now.

Using a correction target I'd sent out Thursday night, subscribers were able to get on board near the exact low on Friday, just ahead of a $16 rally. Accordingly, based on reports from subscribers in the chat room, I am establishing a tracking position of four contracts with a cost basis of 1263.00. When the futures resume trading on Sunday evening, I'll recommend exiting half of the position. As encouraging as the rally may have seemed, it will need to clear the 1293.20 'external' peak shown before we can relax. ________ UPDATE (Oct 9, 8:32 a.m. EDT):  The futures opened Sunday at 1278.60. Imputing the theoretical gain on the two contracts sold to the two still held gives them an effective cost basis of  1247.40. At a current price of 1283.80, the theoretical profit on the tracking position is $7280. For now, offer a third contract to close at 1289.00, good till canceled. ________ UPDATE (Oct 10, 8:08 a.m.): The futures have taken another leap, allowing an easy exit from a third of four contracts originally acquired. Imputing the paper gain to the single contract that remains gives it an effective cost basis of 1204.80 The theoretical position profit with the futures currently trading at 1295.20 is $9040.

A bearish target at 1270.20 has kept us on the right side of the trend. But with the futures currently within a few ticks of our number, it's time for a new one: 1256.50.  This is little stuff, for sure, but make no mistake, it will always be useful to know: 1) exactly how far the trend is likely to go, minimum; and 2) how much resistance the target is likely to offer. In this case, a drop to at least 1256.50 over the next few days seems all but certain; a tradeable bounce from within a few ticks of it almost as certain. This gambit will be catch-as-catch-can:  Trade 'em however you like, but with the conviction that the target above is going to work like magic. _______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 9:25 p.m. EDT): A moderate rally was continuing into the night session, promising to deliver 1278.80 (click here for chart). Let's wait and see how buyers handle this Hidden Pivot resistance, since they'll need to push past it with ease to suggest they're ready for significantly more. The big-picture  target you shouldn't lose sight of lies at 1462.70 (daily chart, A= 1073.00, 12/31/15). Traders please note: A pullback to the green line (x) of the big pattern would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal at 1220.60, stop 1139.60. __________UPDATE (Oct 4, 5:46 p.m.):  Buyers delivered 1285.00, somewhat more than we'd asked of them.  But because they gave more than half of the gains, the burden of proof is still on the bulls. If they can push this brick above 1293.20, a peak recorded a week ago on the way down, that would be a mildly encouraging step in the right direction. _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 7:15 pm.): Easy come, easy go. But then, we've grown accustomed by now to

We had a stink bid in at the opening, but gold's ebullient leap from well above it left us choking on dust as we played spectator for the remainder of the day. The chart (see inset) shows a subtle but very compelling rally target at 1320.50, and I have little doubt the futures will get there. However, if the rally is going to suck in more bullish buying, it will need to impale D=1320.50, the more brutally the better.  Today we'll just watch, learn and plan. _______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 4:38 p.m.): Wow! A more compelling demonstration of 'Matt's Curse' could not be found than yesterday's wicked reversal in gold. It occurred precisely at the p2 'secondary' Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown in this chart.  Then, just as subscriber and intrepid bullion-trader Matt's theory holds, after hitting p2 almost exactly, December Gold turned tail, eventually crashing the 'C' low. I'd thought a rally to the 'D' target was a lock-up when the tout above went out Monday night. For now, though, and especially when forecasting precious-metal futures, I will be paying closer attention to price action at p2, since it has become a notoriously treacherous spot for gold and silver trading vehicles. ________ UPDATE (Sep 27, 8:31 a.m.): December Gold's bombed out low this morning fell within three ticks of the D target of this pattern on the 480-min (and others) chart: A = 1319.80 on 9/20; B= 1291.20 on 9/21. If 'D' fails badly as support, 1270.20 would be the next stop. ________ UPDATE (Sep 28, 5:59 p.m.): The (corrected) 1270.20 target remains valid (click here), but bulls will have a fighting chance if they can push this brick above 1292.00 on Friday.

First the good news:  December Gold looks like a great bet to reach the 1462.70 target shown -- a exhilarating, 10% move from these levels.  The not-so-good-news is that the futures could relapse $105 to the green line at 1220 without compromising the bullish look of the weekly chart.  That would be a terrific spot to place a 'mechanical' bid, assuming we still had the stomach to be in there buying with the futures plummeting. But in the meantime, we'll need to be on our guard as the correction from the recent high at 1362 gathers steam, as appears likely.  The 30-minute chart suggests the decline is bound for a minimum 1317.10 Sunday night. Any lower, however, would beget more downside to 1314.30, a Hidden Pivot whose decisive breach would be warning bulls to back away. Worst case for the next two weeks: 1295.30. _______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 11:14 p.m.):  December Gold has fallen to a level where it is starting to look enticing as a possible 'counterintuitive' buy.  I'd like to see the point 'C' low form in the range 1301.10-1303.50 before I give the go-ahead, but in any event the entry trigger will ultimately lie exactly 15 points above 'C'.  That implies $750 of theoretical entry risk per contract, but we may opt to use a 'camouflage' entry instead if the move from C to x takes more than a day. Stay tuned to the chat room if you want to stay closely apprised. ________ UPDATE Sep 19, 6:22 p.m.): Tuesday's dirge didn't inspire much confidence that buyers are about to take a leap. We'll give it another day, but a fall to at least 1295.30 is still looking likely. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 11:38 p.m.): Gold has gotten pounded recently, but the selloff has generated only a