Gold

Although tracking gold for the many Rick's Picks subscribers who are in it for the long haul has been tedious in recent years, don't worry about my being asleep at the wheel when bullion someday turns higher for real.  It could happen with a powerful lurch; or, more likely in my view, a soft launch that breaks free of gravity so gradually that even gold bugs won't know it is happening.  We've been encouraged by false starts so many times since gold topped in 2011 just above $1900 that many are bound to be skeptical when a true bull market finally emerges, as it eventually will. For all we know it could happen next week, although the odds are against it. Still, all we need do to accurately gauge bulls' mettle is to observe how they interact with Hidden Pivot levels on the lesser charts. Currently our short-term benchmarks lie at 1331.90 and 1350.50 -- respectively, the midpoint pivot and the 'D' target of the pattern shown. As always, and easy move through either of these 'hidden' resistance points would command our attention, since it would signal unusual strength relative to what gold has done in recent months.  Stay tuned if precision is important to you. ______ UPDATE (March 15, 6:35 p.m. EDT): Seldom has gold failed to disappoint us in recent months. This time it has pulled back from within an inch of the 1331.90 pivot noted above.  Were the futures to punch through it, I would turn ultra-cautiously bullish.  The good news is that sellers -- other than when there is news helpful to their bullying precious metals lower -- are as utterly lacking in conviction as buyers.

Gold hasn't earned an extravagant rally projection, so we'll stick with the little stuff for the time being.  I'd said we could look for bull trades if the April contract pushed above 1335.60, and that advice still obtains. However, the pattern shown would create a buying reason at a slightly lower threshold. Specifically, if the futures can push a point or so above the 1333.50 target, you can start looking for a 'camouflage' play on, say, the one-minute chart. Pivoteers, please take note: Based on this pattern, April Gold tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal on Friday when it dipped beneath the green line at 1320.30.  Following the simple rules for this type of trade, subscribers would have cashed out half of a four-contract position at 1324.70 for a gain of nearly $900. _______ UPDATE March 6, 8:24 p.m. EST): April Gold performed slightly better than we'd asked of it. Now let's see if it can achieve -- and perhaps surpass -- the 1367.50 midpoint pivot shown in this chart. This Hidden Pivot resistance can be used as a minimum upside objective for the near term.  If the futures should reach or slightly exceed it and then pull back to the green line, that would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal, stop 1303.50. _______ UPDATE (March 8, 6:31 p.m.):  For tonight's assignment I will suggest reading a dozen or so Gold touts for various contract months that have been archived. This will give you a perspective on why, no matter how bullish my forecast is for a given day, my big-picture advice is to expect disappointment for the foreseeable future.  DaBoyz are not taking gold significantly higher until they are good and ready. This will require a sea change in Wall Street's status quo, which is to buy stocks, sell bonds, sell

Much as I've dissed gold in recent weeks, the chart shown is bullish for one reason: the January high at 1370.50 exceeded the peak made four months earlier by 50 cents. That's not much, but it makes the entire rally from December's 1242.70 low bullishly impulsive on the daily chart. It also implies that April Gold could fall a further $75 without negating the bullishness of the chart. But how do we get long without suffering the damage and disappointment bullion has been inflicting on true believers for so long?  For starters, I'll suggest focusing on the possible 'counterintuitive' set-up that is taking shape on this chart.  A point 'C' low in the range  1307.20-1310.30 would look pretty tempting, and that is what I recommend you look for. I may not be in the chat room if it triggers, but just ask any Pivoteer for guidance if the trade sets up in the way I've noted. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 10:45p.m.): Gold popped today, but from a 1304.70 low just beneath the range I'd specified to trip a 'counterintuitive' buy signal. We can start looking for another way to get long above 1335.60, since that would activate a bullish pattern with upside potential to as high as 1431.40 (daily chart, A=1242.70 on 12/12/17).

Bulls got sandbagged Friday when a promising rally in the early going turned suddenly into a $17 drop. However, the good news is that this occurred after the April contract had pushed above a key 'external' peak at 1361.00 labeled in the chart, generating a fresh, bullish impulse leg. Buyers failed to capitalize on this when they allowed the futures to dip beneath the 1350.80 low recorded a day earlier. It would have made an good launching pad if bulls had not been so exhausted. Look for more weakness in the days ahead, but please note that a rally of $6.25 or more would signal a possible bullish reversal. _______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 8:47 p.m.): How dreary!  Gold will lose some of its luster -- and my good will, technically speaking -- if this correction exceeds the 1319.10 low recorded on Valentine's Day. _______ UPDATE (Feb 21, 6:28 p.m.):  Assuming it goes no lower than Wednesday's 1324.40 low, April Gold would need to pop to 1335.70 today -- and close above it -- to register a pulse. _______UPDATE (Feb 22, 10:55 p.m.): The futures tripped a weak buy signal, but I'd suggest getting long only if you know how to 'camo' your way aboard on the five-minute chart. If you know why 1336.20 matters, you're qualified to do the trade. Be a Pivoteer hero! Consider sharing the trade with the chat room if it triggers.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 26, 5:38 p.m.): Buyers must push this cinder block above 1345.60 -- and close it above that number for at least two consecutive days -- to demonstrate that they are serious.  Thereupon, a 1368.20 target would be in play.

We've learned to look for rallies in gold whenever we start to feel a small twinge of despair. Lo, the April contract delivered right on schedule after I sounded this mildly despairing note in a tout sent out to you Monday evening: "Gold’s rallies have been so pathetic lately that the contrarian in me says it may be about to pop." Gold did indeed pop, overshooting the 1331.90 target I'd flagged by a technically significant $1.50.  Then the futures went on to exceed an 'external' peak I'd mentioned at 1334.80, refreshing the bullish energy of the hourly chart. The implication is that the futures are now on their way to at least 1349.30, the only significant resistance on the near horizon.If they can hurdle it, too, we'll raise our sights to the 1370.50 peak recorded on January 25. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 10:36 a.m.): Gold has had a spectacular rally this morning -- a $30 surge following a nasty shakedown on bearish CPI news.  The high so far is 1350.40, putting the 1370.50 benchmark noted above within shooting distance.

Gold has bounced as usual from the depths of disappointment, if not quite the brink of despair. This tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal at the green line (1340.40) that I very deliberately chose to ignore. Let it be a learning experience if buyers go on to reach the 1371.40 target, particularly if they do so effortlessly. This would become more likely if they get past the 1350.80 midpoint Hidden Pivot without pausing for breath. Once this has occurred, a pullback to 1340.00 would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal that we'll consider on its merits at the appropriate time. _______ UPDATE (Feb 6, 6:32 p.m. EST): Gold has reverted to its wonted sludgepot mode, although the 1350.80 benchmark noted above kept us from waxing unnecessarily enthusiastic about the last rally. Now the futures are headed down to the 1318.40 target shown, a Hidden Pivot support that, just for the hell of it, you could bottom-fish with a 1318.50 bid, stop 1317.90. If it fills, good luck! You'll be on your own. _______ UPDATE (Feb 7, 7:36 p.m.): Gold stopped out the 1318.40 trade, but the April contract would become a 'counterintuitive' buy in theory if it rallies today to 1327.70. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 5:59 p.m.): A weak rally tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal at the somewhat altered price of 1323.20. It could be good for a ride to 1337.30 or even 1365.60, but I am not recommending the trade unless you found it yourself and know how to manage the risk.  Please report any fills in the chat room if you'd like me to consider a tracking position.  Note: I have projected 3.11% for the Ten-Year Note, currently trading around 2.85%. As long as rates continue to rise, and the dollar to strengthen, my enthusiasm for gold

Gold is playing the tease once again, bettering September's key high at 1370.00 by an inch before receding again into the murk. Although this has not much affected the odds that the 1394.20 rally target we've been using for more than a month will be reached, it has put gold into limbo for the moment. At the very least, somewhat lower prices seem likely over the near-term. That's because last week's uptrend stalled to-the-tick at a 1354.30 midpoint I'd flagged, turning a weak rally into a mildly bearish formation. It projects to 1320.70, a Hidden Pivot support you can bottom-fish with a 1320.80 bid for a single contract and a stop-loss as tight as 1319.90. If the position goes in-the-black, you'll be on your own.

We have higher targets outstanding for April Gold, most immediately the one shown at 1373.10 (see inset). Odds that it will be achieved within the next couple of days would shorten significantly if buyers are able to push easily past the 1354.30 midpoint resistance.  At the close of Wednesday's regular session, buyers were stalled precisely at that number, but the shallow pullback so far is encouraging. A higher target of larger degree at 1394.20 that was first broached here a month ago still looks very likely to be achieved. (Note: We exited a profitable 'counterintuitive' trade around mid-session Thursday because it was taking too long to get airborne. The trade was associated with the 1373.10 target noted above.)

Pivoteers may have noticed that April Gold tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal when it rallied through the green line Wednesday afternoon. Odds that the rally will now reach the red line, a midpoint pivot at 1354.30, over the next 12-18 hours are at least 80% -- about what we have come to expect for this type of trade. However, a decisive penetration of the pivot would imply this vehicle is on its way at least somewhat higher, to the 1373.10 target associated with the midpoint resistance. Above it sits the 1394.20 target of a much larger, bullish pattern that goes back to July 2017. (Note: For the March contract, the published target was 1389.60.) _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 12:30 p.m.): If you did the trade, perhaps belatedly, I recommend exiting the position now at around 1346.00 for a small profit. CI trades in particular should NOT be allowed to test our patience.