Gold

We had a stink bid in at the opening, but gold's ebullient leap from well above it left us choking on dust as we played spectator for the remainder of the day. The chart (see inset) shows a subtle but very compelling rally target at 1320.50, and I have little doubt the futures will get there. However, if the rally is going to suck in more bullish buying, it will need to impale D=1320.50, the more brutally the better.  Today we'll just watch, learn and plan. _______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 4:38 p.m.): Wow! A more compelling demonstration of 'Matt's Curse' could not be found than yesterday's wicked reversal in gold. It occurred precisely at the p2 'secondary' Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown in this chart.  Then, just as subscriber and intrepid bullion-trader Matt's theory holds, after hitting p2 almost exactly, December Gold turned tail, eventually crashing the 'C' low. I'd thought a rally to the 'D' target was a lock-up when the tout above went out Monday night. For now, though, and especially when forecasting precious-metal futures, I will be paying closer attention to price action at p2, since it has become a notoriously treacherous spot for gold and silver trading vehicles. ________ UPDATE (Sep 27, 8:31 a.m.): December Gold's bombed out low this morning fell within three ticks of the D target of this pattern on the 480-min (and others) chart: A = 1319.80 on 9/20; B= 1291.20 on 9/21. If 'D' fails badly as support, 1270.20 would be the next stop. ________ UPDATE (Sep 28, 5:59 p.m.): The (corrected) 1270.20 target remains valid (click here), but bulls will have a fighting chance if they can push this brick above 1292.00 on Friday.

First the good news:  December Gold looks like a great bet to reach the 1462.70 target shown -- a exhilarating, 10% move from these levels.  The not-so-good-news is that the futures could relapse $105 to the green line at 1220 without compromising the bullish look of the weekly chart.  That would be a terrific spot to place a 'mechanical' bid, assuming we still had the stomach to be in there buying with the futures plummeting. But in the meantime, we'll need to be on our guard as the correction from the recent high at 1362 gathers steam, as appears likely.  The 30-minute chart suggests the decline is bound for a minimum 1317.10 Sunday night. Any lower, however, would beget more downside to 1314.30, a Hidden Pivot whose decisive breach would be warning bulls to back away. Worst case for the next two weeks: 1295.30. _______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 11:14 p.m.):  December Gold has fallen to a level where it is starting to look enticing as a possible 'counterintuitive' buy.  I'd like to see the point 'C' low form in the range 1301.10-1303.50 before I give the go-ahead, but in any event the entry trigger will ultimately lie exactly 15 points above 'C'.  That implies $750 of theoretical entry risk per contract, but we may opt to use a 'camouflage' entry instead if the move from C to x takes more than a day. Stay tuned to the chat room if you want to stay closely apprised. ________ UPDATE Sep 19, 6:22 p.m.): Tuesday's dirge didn't inspire much confidence that buyers are about to take a leap. We'll give it another day, but a fall to at least 1295.30 is still looking likely. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 11:38 p.m.): Gold has gotten pounded recently, but the selloff has generated only a

Today's rally was the most important in gold since it entered a bull market in December 2015. Actually, from a technical standpoint the rally has significantly raised the odds that gold's balky ascent since then has in fact been a bull market rather than a mere correction in a bear market begun from 2011's record peak at $1911. It also put in play the 1474.4 target shown.  The rally achieved two additional feats, one of them crucial to the intermediate-to-long-term picture when it: 1) exceeded a 1352.90 Hidden Pivot target of middling importance; and, 2) pushed above the extremely important peak at 1353.00 recorded on the night Trump was elected.  All of this adds up to a greatly improved technical picture for gold -- one that we will be watching closely to get the most possible leverage from bull trades in the weeks and months ahead. _______ UPDATE (Sep 10):  Use the secondary pivot at 1391.30 (see inset) as a minimum upside target for now. If buyers are intent on pushing the futures to at least 1474.40, they should make short work of the 1391.30 resistance. ________ UPDATE (Sep 11, 9:49 p.m.): This correction targets 1320.30 most immediately (60-min, a=1360.30 on 9/8), and there should be a tradeable bounce from that Hidden Pivot if bulls are about to get their mojo back. _______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 9:12 p.m.): The futures have rallied off the secondary pivot (1326.10) without having gotten near the 1320.30 downside target with which it is associated.  This is moderately bullish but would become still moreso if and when the move starts to exceed some prior peaks on the hourly chart. The first of significance lies at 1343.30, about $9 above current levels. ________ UPDATE (Sep 13, 10:37 p.m.): The futures relapsed down to 1322.20, settling just

With a sharp lurch higher, December Gold has broken above the 1301.20 resistance I'd flagged as crucial to the intermediate-to-long-term outlook.  The rally is encouraging, but we should remain cautious for two reasons. For one, the move was catalyzed by news that Kim Jong Un-sane had fired a missile over Japan. As someone pointed out in the Rick's Picks chat room on Tuesday, however, traders who have faded market moves caused by seemingly shocking news have only made money.  Indeed, every geopolitical crisis in memory, including the bombing of Pearl Harbor and the Cuban missile showdown turned out to have been a great opportunity to buy stocks at relative bargain prices.  DaBoyz used these crises and countless others to shake down shares so that they could by more of them at bargain prices. This was clearly the case here. On Sunday evening, index futures plummeted on news of Kim's brazen aggression.  But Wall Street, cynical as ever, treated the short-lived panic as a fire sale. The result was that, by the end of Tuesday's session, traders had reversed a 134-point selloff on the opening to close the Dow up 57 points -- a 190-point reversal. The second reason we should treat gold's 'breakout' cautiously is that it is still well shy of election night's watershed top at 1353.00. Until such time as that high is exceeded, the 1462.70 rally target given here earlier will in my estimation be more theoretical than probable. For now, caveat emptor. _______ UPDATE (Aug 31, 10:36 p..m. EDT): Thursday's stall at 1327.60, a midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in this chart, implies December Gold will hit 1352.90 if and when it pushes decisively past the lower number. In the meantime, a pullback to the green line would be a 'mechanical' buy, stop 1302.20._________ UPDATE (Sep 5,

Gold's tedious shenanigans should not cause us to take our eyes off the little sonofabitch for too long, since we might miss something interesting. Like now, for instance. The December contact has mildly caught fire and is making another run at 1301.20, a very important midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance that has stopped promising rallies three times since April, including one earlier this week. This is a very crucial obstacle, since once decisively above it the December contract would be no worse than an even-odds bet to reach 1462.70. How decisively?  Two consecutive weekly closes above the pivot would do the trick, or alternatively an intraday thrust exceeding 1325.00 or so. The chart (see inset) shows the whole picture, including the 1301.20 midpoint pivot that I have revised slightly upward from an earlier 1300.70. _______ UPDATE (Aug 26):  I won't dignify Friday's freakish spasm by 'analyzing' it, but suffice it to say, it changed nothing in the technical picture given above. _______ UPDATE (Aug 28, 7:26 p.m.): December Gold is streaking higher tonight, goosed by news that Kim Jong Un-sane had lobbed a missile over Japan. The so-far top at 1330.00 has surpassed the benchmark given above by $5, raising the odds that this rally is for real. At the very least, it has put into play the 1382.00 'secondary' pivot of the pattern as a minimum upside target for the near term.

Gold's slight breach of the 1288.00 target shown is encouraging, but the bullishness of this is merely, well, slight.  The overshoot is not sufficient for us to infer that a glorious rally lies just ahead, but if and when the next upthrust comes, look for it to hit 1300.70, an important midpoint resistance (daily chart, A=1074.10 on 12/30/15). It would take more than that, however -- specifically, a print exceeding 1307.00 -- to refresh the bullish energy of the daily chart; and still more -- i.e., a push above the election night high, 1353.00 -- to put gold back on the warpath. ________ UPDATE (Aug 10, 6:56 p.m. EDT): The futures ended the day slightly shy of the very important Hidden Pivot resistance at 1300.70 noted above (click  here for chart).  A decisive push past it, or two consecutive weekly closes above it, would put a 1461.60 rally target well in play. Buyers have failed twice this year to blast through 1300.70 in April and June. Let's see if the third try proves to be the charm. ________ UPDATE (Aug 13, 6:05 p.m.): No change. The 1300.70 resistance remains critical to my outlook for gold over the near-to-intermediate term. _______ UPDATE (Aug 14, 5:56 p.m.): If the futures slip beneath the 1285.90 midpoint Hidden Pivot support that contained today's selling, look more more downside to 1280.30, a minor retracement target that you could bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks (60-min, a=1295.30 on 8/14 at midnight). _______UPDATE (Aug 15, 8:14 a.m.):  For the third time since April, December Gold has receded from the 1300.70 Hidden Pivot resistance without having penetrated it decisively.  Rinse and repeat. This is neither particularly bullish nor bearish, but it does affirm my earlier advice to tune out gold until it does something worthy

Thursday's modest rally deserves the benefit of the doubt, since it surpassed the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of the minor, bullish pattern shown. It projects to 1282.90, but it would take a decisive move past that number to suggest that buyers have the gumption to keep the rally going. If they do, that would take the futures up to at least 1293.80, where they would face the same test that they passed this morning with their subdued upthrust. _______ UPDATE (Aug 4, 10:58 a.m. EDT):  And down we go again -- a nasty, out-of-nowhere $15 selloff for no 'good' reason.  From the chat room, here's a note I posted moments ago for those who may have grown weary of gold's increasingly frustrating behavior: "Gold rarely fails to disappoint, Giovanni. Re-read the last half-dozen or so gold touts in the archive for perspective. I try to cast gold in the most positive light possible, but without implying that it's about to 'do something'. It's not, and there's no point in getting enthused about bullion until such time as it clears some key technical hurdles. The election night peak should be your benchmark."

I've switched to the December contract, displaying enough price bars to temper even the permabull's overripe enthusiasm for gold at the moment. Not that there's much cause for worry, either.  For in fact, the picture is so utterly hum-drum, with repeated, gratuitous swings of nearly $100, that it cannot but prepare you for more hypnotic, meaningless price action. We'll have mild reason to perk up if the current rally shreds its way past the 1290.00 'external' peak that I've labeled, but until then I can only suggest that you get back to your nap and enjoy a good snooze._______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 11:54 p.m. EDT): If the futures haven't rallied above 1270.30 overnight, look for more slippage to at least 1262.30 in the early going. A breach of that minor Hidden Pivot support would send them even lower -- to as low as 1254.20 over the near term if the selling turns strident.

Gold did what we asked of it on Friday but not much more. The August contract need only have achieved a 1268.70 target first broached here nearly a week ago to stay on a bullish track. The actual high was 1270.00, or 1.30 points more than we'd required. The overshoot was not sufficient to ensure a robust follow-through on Monday, but it nevertheless generated a very subtle impulse leg that we may be able to use to get aboard with entry risk tightly controlled. I have sketched the ABC pattern for your guidance, but initiating the trade could be tricky due to the relatively tiny k-A segment.  It implies that even Friday's minuscule pullback from the intraday high may prove sufficient to have created a valid b-c leg. For that reason, the trade is recommended for experienced Pivoteers only.