Gold

I've switched to the August contract, which from a technical standpoint is identical to the June. The 1314.50 target on the new chart is several dollars higher, but as is the case with the June contract, the 'D' target is looking like an increasingly good bet to be reached over the next 2-3 weeks. The odds shortened a tad on Friday with bulls' decisive push past the 1266.20 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. The near-term outlook would have grown even more bullish had the rally surpassed the 'external' peak at 1273.10 recorded on May that I've labeled in the chart. Like the June futures, however, the Auggies missed this threshold by just a few ticks, so we'll need to cross our fingers on Sunday night and hope for the modest follow-through that would get the job done. Sunday night-owls take note: The 1273.10 peak, along with several others to the left of it, could prove useful for setting up a low-risk 'camouflage' entry trigger for a shot at p2=1290.30 or higher. ______ UPDATE (May 30, 8:15 p.m.): See my 10:16 post in the chat room concerning a 'counterintuitive' entry. At this hour, 1256.20 (5/26 at 2:00 a.m.) looks like a promising point A to use.  _______ UPDATE (May 31, 7:29 p.m.): The futures traded no lower than 1262.00 on Thursday, but some subscribers got long anyway based on the bullish outlook detailed above.  I'm not establishing a tracking position because the trades did not conform to my recommendation. However, the nearest rally target, a minor one, lies at 1279.00. Use it as a minimum upside projection for now, but please note that an easy move past it would indicate more upside over the near term. If the rally were to exceed 1282.90, that would be especially bullish.

Buyers were repelled today by the 1263.80 'secondary' pivot shown, failing badly in their attempt to achieve the 1269.80 rally target that had  looked so promising at Monday's close. The chart will likely have something to say about 'Matt's curse,' whereby a stall exactly at the secondary pivot usually proves fatal to the minor trend. In this case, according to Matt, a regular in the Rick's Picks chat room who trades mostly silver, it would imply more slippage to beneath the 1245.70 point 'C' low. That wouldn't kill the larger uptrend that has been in progress since May 9, but it would certainly dampen bullish spirits for the time being. For now we'll move to the sidelines, since the only opportunity that seems imminent would be a scalp-short overnight. _______ UPDATE (May 24, 6:03 p.m. ET): The futures rallied from a shallow hole today (click here for chart), seeming to dodge 'Matt's curse' for the time being.  The rally is potentially tradable via 'camouflage', but you'll need to zoom down to the 5-minute chart to find 'external' peaks suitable for this approach. _______ UPDATE (May 26, 12:58 a.m.): The June contract will need to pop above 1269.70, an 'external' peak recorded on May 1, to get out of  pussyfooting mode. Not that gold looks bad at the moment, but we should demand something more of it before we shift our attention in earnest to the 1311.70 target broached here earlier.

Today's fleeting stab above the 1263.00 midpoint pivot (see inset) was not sufficient for us to infer that a further run-up to the 1311.70 target is a done deal. Regardless, a pullback to 1238.70, the green line, should be regarded as a buying opportunity. Done with a 'mechanical' bid at that price, the trade would imply a stop-loss at 1413.30 and initial risk of more than $2400 per contract. Clearly, there are better ways to get aboard, including a 'camouflage' entry that we might expect to cut theoretical down to perhaps $40-$60. Accordingly, I'll suggest zooming down to the five-minute chart if the futures should fall to 1238.70; then, using any minor, uptrending abc pattern that occurs subsequently to generate a conventional entry trigger. _______ UPDATE (May 21, 6:04 p.m. ET): The futures stair-stepped higher on Friday rather than correcting for a second day as I'd expected. Now, if they can take out the 1257.80 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance shown, they'll be in good shape for a run at the 1269.80 target. Pivoteers, please note: The 1256.70 peak recorded Friday on the way down has the potential to generate a great 'camouflage' entry opportunity if there's a bc-type pullback from slightly above it on the one- or three-minute chart.

June Gold took off Tuesday without kissing our stingy bid and has now extended the rally in after-hours trading. The 1246.40 target shown can serve as a minimum upside objective for the moment, but we should be rooting for an effortless move past it -- or better yet, past the 'external' peak at 1254.50 recorded on May 3. That would refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart, clearing the way for a potential shot at 1263.00, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a big bullish pattern begun in mid-March (A=1200.00) that projects to as high as 1311.70. _______ UPDATE (May 17, 6:07 p.m. ET):  June Gold took a heroic leap today as stocks plummeted. In after-hours trading the futures were just inches from the 1263.00 midpoint resistance noted above, having traded as high as 1261.60.  I won't try to predict what they will do next, but a decisive thrust past 1263.00 over the next several days would shorten the odds of a further run-up to at least 1311.70 (see above for details -- and click here for the chart).

June Gold slightly exceeded the minor Hidden Hidden Pivot resistance at 1230.10 that we used last week to get on the right side of a bullish trend change and to stay with it. Now I'll suggest using the pattern shown (see inset) to understand and exploit price action over the next day or two. It implies that a decisive push above the 1231.10 midpoint pivot is likely to hit 1235.50. You can see that it would take just a little more, specifically a move exceeding the 'external' peak at 1236.90 recorded last Monday, to put sellers back on their heels. _______ UPDATE (May 15, 6:35 p.m. ET): Gold did as it usually does today: two steps forward, one-and-three-quarter steps back. But not before generating a fresh impulse leg on the hourly charrrrrrrt by exceeding the 1236.90 'external' peak noted above. Traders looking to get long should use this 'counterintuitive' set-up I've sketched hypothetically here. Please note that a point 'C' low beneath 'A' is allowable, but ideally it should fall within the range 1226.10 - 1227.20.

My latest tout for silver futures makes for grim reading. However, because Comex Gold's chart leaves more room for a bullish outcome over the next couple of months, I've decided to treat it as a separate case. For in fact, June Gold would become a 'mechanical' buy if it pulls back to 1213.60, the green line shown in the chart (see inset).  Because the implied entry risk would be about $8400 per contract, however, we'll want to convert any 'mechanical' buying signal that occurs into a 'camouflage' entry trigger in order to hold the theoretical entry risk down to a more do-able $40-$80 per contract. Gold's price action fits a pattern it has exhibited for well more than a year, rallying no farther than it has to in order to lift bulls from the pit of despair; and then plummeting to exactly the threshold where that despair has returned in full. It certainly does feel like a bear-market tease. However, from a purely technical standpoint, this behavior has created a long-term bullish picture going back to late 2015 with a projected top as high as 1464.90. Keep in mind, though, that that number will remain pie-in-the-sky until such time as the futures push decisively above p=1297.40, a key midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. We anticipated a stall there to the exact tick, but as always, there was no predicting with confidence at the time how far or for how long this arguably corrective weakness might last. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 7:34 p.m. ET): The futures were barely treading water today and will likely need to fall at least somewhat lower before they can muster a robust bounce. The most bullish spot for this to occur would be from p=1220.20, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown here. The rally would then need

Because the June contract has yet to exceed the 1297.40 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart, it would be speculative to conclude that it is likely to achieve the pattern's quite bullish 1464.90 target.  However, one needn't be a chartist to discern that the target is derived from a long-term bullish pattern that is both clear and persuasive.  But if presumably corrective weakness were to return for the next several weeks, we might expect to see the futures grope their way down to 1188.60 (60-minute, a=1347.40 on 11/9/16), a fall of about 6% from current levels, before finding good  support. In any event, I can recommend bottom-fishing with a 'counterintuitive' entry that would use a set-up similar to the one sketched hypothetically at the right-hand edge of the chart. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time if the futures take a path similar to this one. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 8:33 p.m. ET): No change. The futures would need to bottom in the range 1248.50-1250.00 to set up the trade noted above and described in the chart (inset). _______ UPDATE (May 3, 8:26 p.m.): Gold's already steep slide accelerated today and looks bound for at least 1232.30, or perhaps 1223.70 if any lower. Worst case over the near term would be 1210.10, a target derived from this pattern. Beware of a bounce from p=1232.30, since that would validate the pattern and its target.

An upthrust today exceeding 1290.10 would put bulls squarely back in charge. At that point our minimum upside objective would be 1315.10, a Hidden Pivot taken from the hourly chart where A=1248.20 on April 10. Alternatively, if the futures fall for a second consecutive day, the first chance they'd have to reverse would be from 1267.90, a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot. However, a decisive penetration of that support would indicate more downside to at least 1255.80. Traders could bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks, but I'll recommend this only to those of you who have caught a piece of the short on the way down. _______ UPDATE (Apr 25, 10:54 a.m. ET): The rally from just beneath p=1267.90 will remain suspect until such time as it exceeds 1280.00. _______ UPDATE (Apr 25, 11:27 p.m.): Despite the gingerly probing of the secondary pivot at 1261.80, June Gold still looks like it wants to go lower. The 1255.80 target remains viable, along with the recommendation to bottom-fish there if you've been short for at least part of the way down.

The June futures have pulled back $22 so far after topping to-the-exact-tick at 1297.40, a longstanding target that has been in play since January. The target is actually a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, and the precise stall there has confirmed not only the pattern but its 1464.90 'D' target.  Now, if buyers are able to push decisively past the pivot, especially within the next 7-10 days, that would bolster the case for a move to at least 1381.10, the 'secondary' pivot, while also putting D=1464.90 in play. We won't pretend to have a crystal ball, however, so let's hang back for the time being and see how the correction plays out. If it reverses to create an impulse leg on the hourly chart without having achieved a 'd' downside target, that would have very bullish implications for the near-to-intermediate term. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 7:50 p.m.): Gold is getting brutalized Sunday night on news that LePen failed to capture the French presidency on the first ballot. Bullion's downdraft may look like a big deal on the intraday charts, but it is not nearly sufficient to have any bearing on the analysis above.