Gold

The weekly chart featured here on Friday suggested a high-probability low, potentially a major one, at exactly 1035.70. However, buyers have intervened to resuscitate a lesser, bullish pattern that I'd nearly given up for dead. The selling had abated on Thursday just shy of breaching the point 'a' low of our uptrend, and the subsequent rally to end the week tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal at 1057.53 that would have netted a quick gain of $1100. There's still more than $20 of upside potential if the futures achieve the 1089.70 target shown. Look to get aboard via a 'mechanical' bid at p=1068.25 once this pivot has been exceeded by at least 3.00 points. _______ UPDATE (8:50 a.m. EST): A dip to 1066.30 at 8:05 a.m. tripped a mechanical 'buy' at that price, confirmed by a trade report in the chat room. Accordingly, I'm establishing a tracking position consisting of four contracts.  Exit two of them now at around 1073.20, then offer another at p2=1078.97. The offer should be held o-c-o with a 1066.20 stop-loss on the two contracts that will remain following the sale of two at current levels. _______ UPDATE (10:43 a.m.): Exiting two contracts as suggested above would leave two contracts with an effective cost basis of 1058.20.  Now you should be out of a third contract, since p2=1079.00 was just hit (per my chat room instruction at 9:27). That leaves one contact with an adjusted cost basis of 1048.20. With such a fat cushion, we can relax and swing away now: minimum objective is D=1089.75, but we won't exit there, we'll simply modify the stop-loss. For now, make it 'impulsive', based on the 60-minute chart. That implies you would exit the position on a print today or tonight at 1063.00 for a theoretical profit of $1500 per

Gold got pummeled on Thursday, but this may have opened the door to some cautious buying Friday or Monday down around the 1035.70 Hidden Pivot support shown. Given the sexy look of the ABC pattern that produced the target, it seems most unlikely that we won’t see a tradable bounce from somewhere very near it (i.e., within about 0.60 points). To get aboard, you could bid there, or perhaps a tick or two above, with a stop-loss as tight as 1034.90. If you want to control risk even more tightly, however, I’d suggest entering on an uptrending abc pattern of three-minute degree or less after the futures have gotten within 0.40 points (i.e., 1036.10) of the target. Click here for a free trial subscription that will allow you to access the chat room, Rick’s daily touts and intraday alerts, and ‘impromptu’ analysis sessions online for two weeks.

Gold rarely fails to disappoint, and Monday was no exception. We shouldn't have been too surprised, however, since Yellen, a company gal whose every pronouncement is calculated to be problematical for bullion, is scheduled to bloviate and obfuscate on Wednesday. Putting that aside, however, and sticking strictly with the 'technicals', it is still possible to make the bullish case. Specifically, I've moved the point 'C' low of the bullish pattern shown (see inset) down a bit to take yesterday's mini-plunge into account. The implication is that things would be looking up for March Gold's daily chart if buyers are able to push it above the midpoint resistance, which is shown here as a red line at 1078.40. Moreover, a decisive thrust past that number would suggest that bulls have the wattage to continue to as high as D=1098.70 over the next several days. As always, a 'mechanical' buying opportunity would materialize following a pullback to either p or p2 once they have been surpassed by at least $3-$4.  Do I actually think any of this will happen?  Not really._______ UPDATE (2:15 p.m. EST): Another disappointing day. The apex of a $16 rally got the futures only to 1077.90, a crucial five ticks shy of our benchmark. This was most surely not the decisive breakout above it that would have signaled buyers' resurgence. They'll have another chance on Thursday, but the longer it takes to surpass 1078.40, assuming it is surpassed at all, the less bullish the implications.

Buying enthusiasm was in conspicuously short supply last week. The futures managed to hold above the 1059.20 low, albeit barely, whence the last decent rally commenced on December 4 (a Friday), but that's surely nothing for bulls to crow about. With a new week about to begin, we'll shun hope and guesswork and play it strictly by-the-numbers. That means the March contract will have to start demolishing Hidden Pivot resistances with the ease of a battering ram taking out a screen door before we allow whatever bullish 'feelings' we may harbor toward gold to surface. Friday's rally did not decisively exceed the midpoint resistance shown (p=1077.25), but if and when that happens, you could buy there 'mechanically' on a pullback, stop 1071.0, using D=1092.80 as a price objective.

Last Friday's $30 surge looked like the beginning of an even bigger rally. So why have the futures been stalled for the last three days?  Maybe because they need time to consolidate for a follow-through worthy of the name. But we should still judge them only by what we see, not what we are hoping for. In that regard, we've got a perfectly serviceable abc pattern to tell us whether bulls have the moxie to push significantly higher over the near term. If so, we should see them push decisively past the 1085.30 midpoint Hidden Pivot that precisely contained yesterday's abortive rally attempt. That could set up a potential 'mechanical' buying opportunity on a pullback to p. (Note: a  1078.50 stop-loss would obtain.) Most bullish of all would be an explosive move that blows past D=1105.60 by week's end. _______ UPDATE (December 10, 5:13 p.m.): The day's constipation was much less than we'd hoped for, but it did nothing to alter the promise of the pattern shown in the chart. However, if buyers can't end the week on an upbeat note, it's going to be more difficult for them to get this sludgepot moving higher come Sunday evening.

Buyers took the day off yesterday as gold gave back half of its modest gains for December. The $20 loss left last Friday's bullish impulse leg intact, but it will take a push today exceeding 1079.50, the 'p' midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown (see inset), to put the futures back on track.  If the pivot is exceeded decisively, meaning by at least $3 in this case, that would put the 1094.00 target in play. Once thus surpassed, any one of the levels indicated by, respectively, the green, red or purple line, could be used for a 'mechanical' bid, provided you are familiar with the tactic. (If not, stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time if the opportunity ripens.) Alternatively, if the point A low at 1059.20 is breached, a test of last week's 1o45.40 bottom would become an odds-on bet.______UPDATE (December 8, 10:50 p.m. EST): Tuesday's timid uptrend left the short-term picture unchanged.  It fell $1.20 shy of our bullish benchmark, but buyers will have a second chance on Wednesday to get the job done.

I've established a tracking position consisting of four contracts to reflect reports from subscribers who got long on Thursday when the December contract came within $2 of a longstanding bearish target at 1044.50.  Assuming half the position was cashed out as suggested at 1063.50 for a quick gain, two contracts remain with an adjusted cost basis of 1025.00.  This will provide a sufficient cushion to swing for the fences with what remains. I had further suggested rolling into the February futures, which have been trading for around the same price as the Decembers, so it will be the former that I track from this point forward.  Although bottom-fishing down near 1044.50 stood to be a high-odds bet, we cannot know how far the rally will get. The important thing was that we were able to stake out a position with initial risk under tight control. My immediate objective is to take another profit, which would leave 25% of the original position. Accordingly, offer a single contract to close at 1101.00.  It should be tied to an o-c-o (one-cancels-other) order to stop out the position if the futures fall to 1047.60. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 11:36 a.m. EST): Based on reports from subscribers, I'll use a 1032.20 basis for the two contracts that remain. It is imputed from an initial buy at 1046.70 and profit-taking on half at 1061.20. The 1047.60 stop-loss is still in effect, tied to an o-c-o offer of a single contract (per four contracts bought initially) at 1101.00.

I’m establishing a tracking position — long four contracts from 1048.00 — since subscribers reported buying December Gold on the basis of a longstanding target I’d furnished at 1044.50. The futures traded as low as 1046.20 intraday, probably as close as they’re going to get to the target if it’s going to work. As is my practice, I will recommend taking a quick profit on half the position at a current price of around 1063.70. That’s admittedly not much of a gain, considering that I expect a very strong bounce from these levels. But it will give traders a comfort cushion that will allow them to swing for the fences with what’s left. The best way I know of to give one's trading decisions the crucial benefit of a relaxed state of mind is to take some of the house’s money off the table early on in a trade; and so I have advised.  Since the February 2016 contract is now the active month, I will further suggest rolling into it. It's trading for around the same price as the December contract, so I'll use the same cost basis.  If subscriber reports in the chat room warrant it, I will adjust the price to reflect their actual experience.  Finally, once you’ve exited half the position, set a stop-loss for what remains at 1035.90.

With the soon-to-expire December contract just inches from a longstanding target at 1044.50, the February futures have somewhat farther to fall to reach an important target of their own at 1035.70 (see inset). It is of a lesser degree, but potentially useful to us because it is so clear and compelling. The implication is that it can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss in expectations of a strong bounce. If the futures surprise by smashing the support on first contact, however, or if they relapse and breach the support after rallying for mere day or two, that would be quite bearish. A long-term target at 817.40 would remain theoretically in play in any event, but odds of it being achieved would shorten if the Hidden Pivot support at 1035.70 proves to be a pushover.  Please note as well that I advised covering a short position in December gold on Friday that had an $1176 basis. The theoretical gain would have been $12,000 per contract, based on a holding time of slightly less than one month._______ UPDATE (December 3, 7:46 p.m. EST): I've established a tracking position in the December futures (see above) -- long four contracts from 1048.00 -- but if you bought the February contract instead, please let me know in the chat room so that I can price it to reflect the actual experience of subscribers. It is the February position that will be carried forward in any case, and so I have advised those who hold a position in the Decembers to roll it forward.