GCG16 – February Gold (Last:1077.90)

Gold's funkGold rarely fails to disappoint, and Monday was no exception. We shouldn’t have been too surprised, however, since Yellen, a company gal whose every pronouncement is calculated to be problematical for bullion, is scheduled to bloviate and obfuscate on Wednesday. Putting that aside, however, and sticking strictly with the ‘technicals’, it is still possible to make the bullish case. Specifically, I’ve moved the point ‘C’ low of the bullish pattern shown (see inset) down a bit to take yesterday’s mini-plunge into account. The implication is that things would be looking up for March Gold’s daily chart if buyers are able to push it above the midpoint resistance, which is shown here as a red line at 1078.40. Moreover, a decisive thrust past that number would suggest that bulls have the wattage to continue to as high as D=1098.70 over the next several days. As always, a ‘mechanical’ buying opportunity would materialize following a pullback to either p or p2 once they have been surpassed by at least $3-$4.  Do I actually think any of this will happen?  Not really._______ UPDATE (2:15 p.m. EST): Another disappointing day. The apex of a $16 rally got the futures only to 1077.90, a crucial five ticks shy of our benchmark. This was most surely not the decisive breakout above it that would have signaled buyers’ resurgence. They’ll have another chance on Thursday, but the longer it takes to surpass 1078.40, assuming it is surpassed at all, the less bullish the implications.