Gold

The futures will have a chance to reverse their slide at the 1228.30 Hidden Pivot support shown, but my hunch is that they've been too long in distribution to escape with merely a marginal new low this week. An alternative target at 1222.30 can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 1221.90, but I'd suggest limiting contract size to one. Alternatively, if gold surprises with a show of strength, a print today at 1263.30 would turn the lesser charts encouragingly bullish.  Bigger picture targets we've been using that remain to be filled: 1212.80 and 1195.40.

Next stop on the way down:  1212.80, the second of three descending targets we've been using to gauge the bear's continuing strength. (The third lies at 1195.40.) The one at 1237.40 hit yesterday was two months in coming, and although it was exceeded by just $1.60, the pattern that produced it was so precise that the target shouldn't have been exceeded at all.  Things are never quite so dismal, however, as to be hopeless. But it would take an upthrust to at least 1268.00 today to give bulls a fighting chance next week. Failing that, look for 1212.80 to produce a tradable bounce, followed by a relapse to 1195.40.  My big picture target for the bear market is still 1125.  (Note to scalpers: 1228.30, a minor hidden support not mentioned earlier, can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks.)

Yesterday's price action looked distributive, lending weight to the stair-step targets given here earlier at, respectively, 1237.40, 1212.80 and 1195.40. Keep in mind as well that a bear-market target at 1125.00 that comes from a much larger pattern is in play too. Alternatively, the futures would provide a faint glimmer of hope with a thrust today or tomorrow exceeding the 1281.70 'external' peak shown. That would turn the 15-minute chart bullish -- not much, but all bull markets have to start somewhere.

Although we've been using a bearish sequence of targets at 1237.40, 1212.80, and 1196.40, we went against the forecast yesterday to trade a promising rally. Details of the trade were advanced to subscribers early Thursday morning in the form of a bulletin.  Traders' outcomes would have varied, however, since the entry signal, tripped at 1282.50,  gave way to a rally that died at 1293.80 -- well shy of the 1298.10 target. The target remains viable, and the futures have yet to dip below the entry price. However, I'll leave it up to subscribers to determine whether they stay in the position. My gut feeling is skepticism, since the futures should have been able to reach so modest a target easily. _______ UPDATE (November 18, 1:07 a.m. EST): The finishing stroke to our presumptive rally target at 1298.83 is taking quite a while, especially considering how unambitious the target is.  It remains valid nonetheless, but you'll need to craft your own entry strategy amidst the tedium of fluctuations that are now entering their fourth day (see inset, a fresh chart). Bulls will need to do somewhat better to energize this vehicle for bigger and better things. Specifically, they must overshoot the target and  surpass the 1313.40 peak without pausing for breath. The bigger picture remains bearish, defined by the sequence of targets given above.

The succession of lower targets I've put out in recent weeks was intended to keep subscribers from turning bullish prematurely.  For the most part, gold has taken a precise bounce from each, usually with sufficient vigor to be tradable. However, none of the rallies has gotten very far; moreover, the targeted supports have not survived for long. This is a key factor in calculating how much more downside might be coming; for if bearish Hidden Pivot targets that have taken weeks to achieve are obliterated in mere hours, this is a reliable sign that even lower prices impend.  In the current context, yesterday's nearly effortless breach of a 1272.00 target we'd been using implies that another, more important one at 1125.00 -- my worst-case low for the intermediate term -- is very much in play. More immediately, the futures will have a chance to gain traction at the following Hidden Pivot supports:  1237.40;   1212.80 and 1196.40. The first is my minimum downside projection for the near-term. As noted above, if it's easily breached, the next, 1212.80 would be in play; and then the next.  Each of these numbers can be bottom-fished with the tightest stop-loss you can abide (but no more than six ticks in any case).  You should step up your contract size only if you know how to use 'camouflage' to reduce your entry risk.  Of the three targets, the middle one should be deemed the least reliable for purposes of bottom-fishing. _______ BULLETIN (November 14, 1:58 a.m. EST): A very promising rally in after-hours trading has turned the 240-minute chart bullish for the first time in weeks. Even better for us is that the developing impulse leg (A=1267.40 at noon; prospective B= 1288.20) has the potential to provide us with a superb opportunity to get long

With a minor upward adjustment, the bearish target given here last week remains valid. I've revised it to 1272.00 from 1271.60 based on the hourly chart shown. (The original pattern we used to target the move came from the 240-minute chart).  The Hidden Pivot is well situated for tightly stopped bottom-fishing, but as always, a decisive breach would portend more weakness ahead. Keep in mind that an 1125.10 bear-market target first broached here a while back (from the weekly continuous chart, where A= 1487.20 on May 3) remains viable. It would be actively in play if the futures were to close beneath its 1279.00 midpoint sibling for two consecutive weekly bars.

Yesterday's tout caught the exact high and low of a wild, $30 swing. The 1326.00 top came within four ticks of my target. For reasons that were made explicit in the tout, the failure of buyers to push above it telegraphed the nasty swoon that was soon to follow. The plunge hit 1296.00 -- 40 cents above a correction target at 1295.40 I'd disseminated earlier in the week with the futures trading around $1312. The futures were on thin ice Thursday night, threatening to fall a further $22, to 1284.10, if the 1299.10 Hidden Pivot midpoint support (red line) fails. (Note: It can be bottom-fished with a micro-tight stop-loss.)  The outlook would brighten for bulls, however, if they can muster a push today exceeding the 1327.30 'external' peak shown. If that happens, it could set up a potentially powerful rally next week. ______ UPDATE (11:09 a.m. EST):  The futures have plummeted anew, breaching the 1284.10 target by several dollars. This implies more downside to at least 1271.60. That crystal-clear target can be bottom-fished and is derived from the following coordinates (240-minute chart): A=1359.60 (10/30); B= 1305.20 (11/5).

Although a big-picture target from the weekly chart lends authority to the mildly bearish, 1295.60 target we're bidding, the lesser charts show bulls unwilling to give much ground. They'll face a crucial test today, however, since the promising impulse leg they generated on the hourly chart yesterday looks too good to fail. It projects to 1326.40, with an entry tripwire at 1317.30 that has already been hit.  Buyers should be able to push past the 1320.30 midpoint pivot with ease, which would all but clinch a follow-through to 1326 or higher. However, if there's any sign whatsoever of a struggle, look for the futures to relapse to 1295.60.

Minor rallies continue to fail, implying that this vehicle may need to go lower before it can gain good traction.  How much lower?  The 1306.40 midpoint pivot shown should be held in mind as a logical minimum downside target for the very near-term.  Traders can bottom-fish there with a 1305.90 stop-loss tied to a single contract, but if it's hit be prepared for more downside to as low as 1295.60.  If you use 'camouflage' to get long and can hold the theoretical entry risk down to no more than six ticks, a four-contract trade can be attempted. _______ UPDATE (10:15 p.m. EDT):  The midpoint support was exceeded by 80 cents -- enough to put the burden of proof squarely on bulls.  If the slippage hits 1295.60, I'll suggest bottom-fishing there with the tightest stop-loss you can abide.  Officially, we'll bid 1295.60 for one contract, stop 1294.90, but camouflageurs can step up the size. Please keep me apprised in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.