Next stop on the way down:  1212.80, the second of three descending targets we’ve been using to gauge the bear’s continuing strength. (The third lies at 1195.40.) The one at 1237.40 hit yesterday was two months in coming, and although it was exceeded by just $1.60, the pattern that produced it was so precise that the target shouldn’t have been exceeded at all.  Things are never quite so dismal, however, as to be hopeless. But it would take an upthrust to at least 1268.00 today to give bulls a fighting chance next week. Failing that, look for 1212.80 to produce a tradable bounce, followed by a relapse to 1195.40.  My big picture target for the bear market is still 1125.  (Note to scalpers: 1228.30, a minor hidden support not mentioned earlier, can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks.)