Gold

An apparent consolidation above the 1334.90 HP resistance shown implies that a finishing stroke to at least 1354.70 lies just ahead. I'd broached a 1358.90 target here as well, and we may see some hesitation at the number.  However, an easy move through it would be telegraphing a push above 1400. Two targets would be in play at that point: 1411.60, the 'D' Hidden Pivot of the big pattern shown; and 1428.80, a number given here earlier that comes from another, equally compelling, pattern. The lower number would be our minimum upside objective once 1358.90 has been surpassed.

The futures have been up as much as $13 this morning after basing overnight at 1315. The move is not yet bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, but it would take a further push of just 1.90 above today's so-far high at 1333.60 to remedy that.  Any pullback from just above the relevant peak (1335.40 on 8/13 at noon EDT)) should be viewed as a buying opportunity, but you'll need to position the trade on the 5-minute chart or less to reduce entry risk to our wonted 4-5 ticks.

Monday's strong rally occurred in the space of about 18 minutes, but it has taken DaBoyz nearly eleven hours to beat it back down to levels where, presumably, they can accumulate more gold before they let go of the reins. Careful here!  We've become so used to seeing bullion rallies evaporate as fast as dew on cactus that we'll need to guard against assuming that is the case now.  One reason for being skeptical about selloffs at the moment is that we still have some unachieved rally targets: a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 1350.40, and another at 1358.90. If these impediments are easily brushed aside, however, we should confidently expect the push to hit a minimum 1428.80 over the near term (i.e., 7-12 days).  Traders looking for a low-risk entry opportunity should focus on opportunities as subtle as the one shown.  With this vehicle, our goal is to pare initial risk down to no more than four ticks ($40) theoretical per contract.

It's Sunday night, and Gold has been up as much as $21 so far, tracking last Thursday's forecast perfectly. The December contract is currently at 1329.90, just off a 1333.00 high recorded on the opening bar. Keep in mind that the first test of the 1428.80 rally projection proffered here last week will come at its midpoint sibling, 1358.90. An easy or decisive move through it would greatly shorten the odds of a quick follow-through to the higher number. For trading purposes, camouflageurs should try to leverage the 'external' peak at 1334.00 shown in the chart.  Any rally that pulls back from a tick or two above that number would afford an excellent opportunity to get long, especially if the B-C pullback is as shallow as $2 or $3. The expected ride would be to at least 1350.40, a secondary target that has come into focus tonight.

Gold finally got airborne Thursday, generating the strongest impulse leg we've seen on the hourly chart in more than a month. The surge breached not only the single 'internal' and single 'external' peaks we require, but a second 'external' for good measure. This should suffice to keep the futures buoyant into next week, at least. It could also make any pullback that meets our 'camouflage' criteria a low-risk buying opportunity. To that end, I'll recommend doing your hunting on the 5-minute chart or less, but with one caveat -- i.e., that you not attempt entry until a second point 'C' has been created. This precaution acknowledges that yesterday's move will have turned many fence-straddlers, erstwhile snoozers and dabblers bullish. The goal is to let them all get stopped out on an initial, presumably failed, push of a C-D follow-through. Keep in mind that it might take a third point 'C' before most bulls have been shaken off and the rally resumes in earnest. From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, this rally has the potential to reach 1428.80. However, crucial resistance at 1358.90 would first need to be reached -- and then overcome.

I've been having a little difficulty lately believing my blandly disinterested indicators whenever gold encourages us with a so-so rally.  Is this one for real, destined for big things, or is it just a flash-on-the-pan?  Regardless, the fact that the December contract has reversed without having quite achieved a magnetic, clear-as-day correction target at 1268.70 is undeniably bullish.  Moreover, late Wednesday night the futures were just an inch shy of vigorously refreshing the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart with a push above the 1296.00 'external' peak shown. Traders should view a valid B-C correction from a tick or two above that number as an excellent opportunity to get long. To keep theoretical risk down to the customary 4 or 5 ticks, I'll suggest zooming down to the 3-minute chart or less when you look for your entry signal.

Although this morning's tout for HUI sounds a despairing note, we can still give gold futures the benefit of the doubt, since they have yet to crush any compelling Hidden Pivot supports.  That could change today, however, if the December contract were to smash the 1268.70 target of the pattern shown.  That number can still be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks -- or better yet via camouflage.  However, we should brace for the worst if it comes in the form of a battered 'D' correction target.

There are enough things to like about the corrective pattern shown that I can recommend bottom-fishing its 1268.70 target using a single contract and a four-tick stop-loss.  There is but one drawback arguing for a 'camouflage' approach: the existence of a structural low at 1369.00 recorded on 7/12.  However, it should pose no problem for the canny camouflageur, who can step up the size to four contracts if a perfect entry set-up forms.  Alternatively, bull trades will best be found using impulse legs on the 5-minute chart or less.  At the moment, that would require an upthrust touching 1299.80 (5-min, a=1288.80 at 11:10 p.m.)

The futures would need to push up 1376.00 to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart worth getting excited about. However, regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, December Gold would become a very enticing 'camo' buy on a b-c pullback from just above the 1328.00 peak flagged in the chart (see inset).