GS

If our favorite market bellwether is to point the way higher for the broad indices, the current weakness should go no lower than ____, a midpoint support tied to a 'd' target at _____.  A bullish reversal and final top above $190 would still be possible on a pullback to _____, but that would strongly suggest that the rally would be Goldman's last gasp.

I want to reiterate the _____ target, which looks as promising as ever (see chart), notwithstanding the fright-wig plunge into the close. We took a close look during yesterday's tutorial session and saw a ripening short, presumably using out-of-the-money puts in the October series.   

The _____ target given here earlier will make for a juicy shorting opportunity if and when Goldman gets there, but I'm reluctant to play the upside unless we can get in at a retracement target. The best such opportunity tied to a Hidden Pivot would be down near _____, the midpoint sibling of _____.

Because I've hung out a bullish target in the _____, we should watch closely to see how stubbornly the little sonofabitch bucks weakness in the broad averages.  We may have an opportunity to observe and learn Monday morning, since Goldman had already begun to sell off on Friday, well before there were any clues that stocks would get hit Sunday night. If the market drags GS lower, the first Hidden Pivot support where we could try bottom-fishing would be at 172.77, stop 172.66. You'll be on your own if the order fills and initially goes your way.  You should also be watching for signs that a recalcitrant Goldman is keeping the market from falling apart, as might be the case. _______ UPDATE (10:28): After falling shy of our downside target by a relatively paltry 40 cents, Goldman suspiciously did NOT participate in this morning's phony selloff, thereby telegraphing the broad rally currently under way.

We hold four Jan 130-Oct 130 put spreads with an adjusted cost basis of 2.50. That number reflects a $360 profit we booked yesterday on a September 170 call we'd bought for $200. The gain seemed ambitious at the time -- it represented a 6300% annualized profit(!!!!!), in newsletter-speak -- but it is only after one cashes out of such a position that Goldman's _____ potential smacks one in the eye. That's where I now think the stock is headed if it closes above the 175.05 midpoint. Incidentally, the September 170 calls traded as low as 0.67 on September 2, with the stock around $159. Whoever sold them at that price must have forgotten that when Goldman shares are rampaging, they can easily climb $10 in just a few days. I won't beat myself up for suggesting that you buy just one September 170 call, but the lesson learned is that Goldman is the horse you should bet on if you think a two or three-day decline in the market is likely to be recouped.

Our offbeat "strangle" in Goldman is starting to work, since the September 170 call we bought for 2.00 traded as high as 3.40 yesterday.  Its purpose was to slightly leverage the upside, thereby lowering the effective cost of four Jan 130 - Oct 130 put spreads that we also hold (for 3.40 apiece). Today only, offer the call to close for 4.80.  If the order fills, it will reduce our cost basis on the spreads to 2.70.  

Yesterday's savaging did no damage whatsoever to the bullishness of the daily chart, although there is still room to fall on the lesser intraday charts. Specifically, a Hidden Pivot target at 158.90 looks like a good place to try bottom-fishing. Officially we'll bid 158.93 for 200 shares, stop 158.79.  We continue to hold the Jan 130 - Oct 130 put spread four times for 3.40 and a September 170 call for 2.00. _______ UPDATE: The bottom-fishing gambit worked out nicely, since the stock rallied $1.08 after making a low at 158.90 around midway into the session. You would have needed to apply a trailing stop, though, since Goldman subsequently relapsed to 158.14 before the closing bell.

We hold the Jan 130 - Oct 130 put spread four times for 3.40 and are long one September 170 call acquired on Friday for 2.00. This is a very slight backspread, with moderate premium exposure over the next three weeks. Our goal is to sell the call on a quick pop to reduce the carrying cost of the put spread. The call also makes us approximately delta neutral -- long the equivalent overall of about five shares of stock.  Goldman looks like it could push up to _____ if it can get past a lesser Hidden Pivot resistance at _____.

We hold the Jan 130 - Oct 130 put spread four times for _____.  We've been trying to buy an out-of-the-money call as a hedge, so far with no success. However, option volatility has been falling, and we could catch a lucky break today if we underbid the market. Accordingly, I'll recommend bidding 2.10 for a single September 170 call,  contingent on the stock trading 164.20 or higher.