June

Two days of pussyfooting an inch from my 111.88 target has killed my enthusiasm for getting short there. Although I would ordinarily view the week's pooch-screwing price action as consolidating for an upthrust, I'm still tempted to use the target to get short as originally planned. It can be done with an rABC set-up using an a-b interval as tight as 40 cents. If you understand this instruction, you're qualified to do the trade. If it gets stopped out, take it as a hint of more upside to at least 116.25, or 124.87 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (May 9, 6:20 p.m.): The futures could have been shorted with an rABC set-up as advised, but only after applying imaginative genius, since they never even got close to 111.88 before tanking.

Although charts with shorter time frames would appear to suggest that crude is in a bullish consolidation, the continuous weekly chart displayed (see inset) provides a speculative basis for inferring that the bull market peaked with March's surge to 130.26.  I say this is speculative because there is nothing in this picture arguing against another bull leg once the spectacular Covid rally begun in 2020 has had time to regain strength. There are reasons to doubt this scenario, however, particularly the significant weakening of China's economy. Energy demand from China sets the global price of oil at the margin, and when the nation's manufacturing sector in particular is imploding, as it is now, no amount of cartel price-rigging or ginned-up constraints on supply can surmount the deflationary effect of falling demand. An even bigger picture suggests the global economy has begun to shrink, with a report on Friday that U.S. GDP fell 1.4% in Q1. (Leave it to the WSJ to publish an op-ed by that useful idiot Alan Blinder saying IF a recession comes, it will be mild.)  If a U.S. recession has indeed begun, as I asserted in my commentary last week, then the March high in crude is certain to stand for a very long time.  ______ UPDATE (May 3, 10:28 p.m.): Check out the Trading Room thread starting with my 12:50 post, which produced an easy winner bottom-fishing June Crude futures. The 99.02 downside target in the pattern linked in my post will remain my price objective unless the 'C' igh gets stopped out. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 11:)3 a.m.): Since the minor bearish pattern we used yesterday to make money (from the long side!) has gotten stopped out, and because the upturn has come from the midpoint pivot of a corrective pattern, we will gaze upward

The pattern in the chart replicates the one displayed here last week, but with an additional, plunging bar that shows why the once-outrageous target at 3994.75 remains a lock-up. We confidently assumed it would be reached when sellers obliterated the pattern's 4312 midpoint support a little more than a week ago. On Friday, they wrecked another Hidden Pivot, the 4146 'D' target of a lesser pattern, all but clinching more downside to D=3994.75. The pattern is too obvious to suggest that bottom-fishing with the usual nickel-and-dime stop-loss will be easy, but even so, there is no way in hell the futures will not rebound tradeably from somewhere very close to the target. Shorting corrective peaks will be yet more difficult, although nothing we can't handle with some diligent crowdsourcing in the Trading Room. _____ UPDATE (May 3, 10:35 p.m.): The pattern shown is a fine specimen of  my favorite kind of gnarliness, which explains why it produced several 'mechanical' winners during today's session. If you made money on the long side, use some of it to cushion a stop-loss shorting at D=4210.25. You'll be on your on if the order fills. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 10:36 p.m.): If you're eager to get short -- as who on Earth is not? - fixate on the dotted red line I've drawn at 4401.75 as a place to set it up. This is the sweet spot of the 'discomfort zone' we love to use, and although it lies an impressive leap above current levels, it shouldn't prove too difficult for DaScumballs to achieve. They drilled shorts a new orifice today, then strung them up with piano wire and left them hanging a millimeter from last week's peak. This is how powerful rallies happen with zero bullish buying, and we should always be careful about

The week ended with a feebly impulsive rally, so we shouldn't get our hopes too high that the June contract will somehow avoid a predicted fall to at least the 1825.80 target of the pattern shown. It ha s been working fairly well for trading purposes although, strictly speaking, the rally to the red line on Friday did not trigger a valid 'mechanical' short because it came from a low that missed touching p2 by a hair's breadth. ______ UPDATE (May 2, 6:47 p.m.): Mechanical trades rated higher the '7' are rare, but here's one that triggered today -- on the monthly chart, no less! With more than $60,000 of initial risk on four contracts, however, this is one you should either paper trade or execute using 'camouflage' in the full-size  contract or the mini.  My target for the corrective move, basis the June contract, suggests the futures will go lower, to at least 1825.80, before they can turn around.  The 2329.10 rally target is hardly a done deal, but it is not looking too shabby for the long term, given the way buyers impaled p=2011 in March. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 10:45 p.m.): So far, so good!  The corrective rally implied in my last update has traveled $50 since bottoming. This occurred a millimeter from an 1852.30 low I'd rated 8.1 for 'mechanical' longs. Anyone aboard?  _______ UPDATE (May 5, 9:31 p.m.): Yet another promising rally turned to dross when the futures reversed near the opening and gave up nearly all of the previous day's gains. I'll have little more to say ahead of the weekend.

That whooshing sound on Friday was the stock market getting flushed for a rare change. Permabears shouldn't get their hopes too high, however, since DaBoyz will have an opportunity to turn things around at the 4146.75 'D' target shown in the chart. This Hidden Pivot support can be used as a minimum downside objective for the near term -- and also as a place to attempt bottom-fishing with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. Since you will be catching the proverbial falling piano, be prepared for more slippage to 3994.75 if the support doesn't hold. There, too, I would encourage you to bottom-fish using a bullish pattern on the very lesser charts (aka 'camouflage'). _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 11:22 p.m.): At today's close, I provided detailed guidance for a countertrend trade that went on to produce a profit of as much as $2000 per contract. Two subscribers reported doing the trade successfully, each in a different way. The 4194.75 'D' target of the pattern  is just an inch away at this hour, so you should be out of 3/4 of the position. Here's a chart that shows how the trade set up. _______ UPDATE (Apr 27, 10:57 p.m.): When the futures finish their distributive dance at p2=4153.81, expect them continue falling to at least D=3994.75 of this pattern. This is the same target as the one given above, but with additional, falling price bars. _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 10:06 p.m.): No telling how high this detour will go, but AAPL's very strong performance today is warning bears not to get too aggressively in the way.

Subscribers should have exited a profitable long trade using a 1942.30 stop-loss before the futures turned limp on Friday. The fact that a moderately appealing 'mechanical' play didn't work better suggests weakness will be the coming week's theme. But probably not too much of it, since sellers have not shown much gumption either. My gut feeling is that DaBoyz will stop out C=1893.20 before they gratuitously reverse until hopes are high enough to dash yet again.  Set your snooze alarm for 2018.40, a tick above an 'external' peak recorded on March whose breach would signal a bullish resurgence. _____ UPDATE (Apr 25, 5:04 p.m.): After plunging sharply overnight, the reversal came exactly as anticipated, from a hair below C=1893.20. One subscriber reported making hay with the $13 rally that ensued. The futures spent the rest of the day playing footsies with 'C', leaving me with little more to say at the moment. _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 11:55 p.m.): Although June Gold has bounced from precisely where we'd anticipated, the countertrend has been weak. This has activated the bearish pattern shown in this chart, with a D target at 1825.80. It is an odds-on bet to be reached because of the easy with which the downtrend penetrated p=1914.40, then made it resistance. _______ UPDATE (Apr 28, 10:16 p.m.): The futures bounced sharply off p2=1870.10 of the bearish pattern that projects to 1825.80, delaying a still-likely fall to that number. This has activated Matt's Curse in a bullish way, although I'd need to see the rally surpass 1922.80 before I change my tune.

June Crude validated the bearish pattern shown on Friday with a day-long game of toe-sies at the red line. That's a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 101.18, and its decisively breach would signal more downside over the near term to at least p2=99.05, or possibly to D=96.93 if any lower. So far, however, the breach has been slight, and it would therefore be premature to offer odds of a further fall. In the meantime, we can look to get short 'mechanically' on a rally to the green line, but I am recommending that the trade be initiated only via 'camouflage'. In practice, that would mean using a downtrending ABCD pattern on a 15-minute chart or lower to set up a trigger.______ UPDATE(Apr 25, 5:12 p.m.): Crude's plunge crushed all of the Hidden Pivot supports identified above, sending the June contract into  a boring void of white space on the daily chart. Adding to the boredom was the return of the June futures to the midway point of the intraday range. UPDATE (Apr 28, 10:19):  The picture is still moderately bullish but boring.

The little hoser spent most of the week tap dancing on a 4388 midpoint Hidden Pivot that had served as our minimum downside objective. Its decisive breach would make further slippage to D=4146.75 more likely, but sellers have looked so gutless lately that we shouldn't take this for granted. More immediately, p2=4267.82 can be used a a minimum downside objective for the near term. I still doubt that bulls have the strength or enthusiasm to stop out C=4631 of the bearish pattern, but let's keep an open mind, lest they use some inscrutable pronouncement from Powell & Co. to catalyze a volume-less short squeeze. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:22 p.m.): Just a little more upside to x=4510 would trigger a mechanical short, stop 4631.25, but I am recommending the trade only to subscribers who can cut the implied entry risk of $6,000 per contract down to $240 or less. In practice, this will require a 'camouflage'  set-up on the 15-minute chart or less.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 11:24 p..): The futures plunged 70 points after topping a single point from the 4510 benchmark flagged above. No one mentioned getting short as the tout update had suggested, even though I posted instructions for initiating the trade belatedly with a mechanical trigger. 

To alleviate the brutal tedium of gold's dance just beneath my old target, I've created a new, slightly lower target at 1986.40 that has already been achieved. This will not affect the pattern's promise to reward 'mechanical' buyers with relatively low-risk profits, since the tradeable implications of its powerful impulse leg cannot be easily subverted. It will also give us a good chance to catch a potentially tradeable top at D=2079.50 with a high degree of precision. This may take great patience, but the wait will be made more bearable by the knowledge that a nasty swoon would likely spell opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Apr 18, 9:24 a.m.): With just a day's rest, buyers have blown through p=1986.40, all but guaranteeing more upside over the near term to at least p2=2032.90.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 12:56 p.m.): Yes, the pullback to x=1939.80 makes for an appealing 'mechanical' buy'. However, the implied risk of $18,000 risk on four contracts with a stop-loss at 1893.10 warrants doing the trade only if you are familiar with 'camouflage' triggers that could pare the theoretical risk down to around $1600. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:48 p.m.): The futures have rallied $20 off a 1941.00 low that missed the green line by a front-run 1.20. If you did the trade, take 25% off at a current 1953.30 and set a 1942.30 stop-loss for what remains. Our price objective for two of the three contracts still held is p=1986.40.