June

The bull trend begun in February has gone comatose along with the stock market. The timing of the breakout is unpredictable, but look for the futures to ascend quickly to p=1993.20 when it happens. The futures could continue to swing gratuitously $40 either way in the meantime, but any trading opportunities thereof would need to come from the lesser intraday charts.

Ordinarily I would infer weakness from the futures' failure last week to reach the 4645.25 rally target drum-rolled here earlier. In this case, however, I'm inclined to think that enough traders and algos are starting to catch on to 'our' reverse patterns that instances as obvious as this one are going to get front-run. Even more compelling for the bullish case is that in this vehicle and our bellwether of bellwethers, AAPL, the selloff has followed an upthrust that exceeded an important prior peak, generating a robust impulse leg on their respective daily charts. We can test this bullish theory as the new week begins using this pattern, a corrective abc that in theory should yield a decent 'mechanical' short at x=4534. If bulls are still in charge, look for it to get stopped out within a day or two. _____ UPDATE (Apr 4, 10:01 p.m.): It took only a few hours for the unrecommended trade to get stopped out, so bulls are still in charge.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 6:04 p.m.): Bulls turned comatose, activating this minor, bearish pattern,  An overshoot of D=4475.75 would imply sellers are not yet done. Also, a rally straightaway to x=4560.50 would trigger a 'mechanical' short, subject to the usual 'camo' risk controls. ______ UPDATE (Apr 6, 11:25 p.m.): The futures fell to the 4475 target overnight, then spent the entire day diddling it as though nothing were happening in the news.  In the end there was no bounce, however, so bears will have the edge when Thursday's session begins. The pattern shown in this chart should be helpful in nailing the swings on the way down to as low as D=4146.75.  And yes, p=4388.88 can be bottom-fished with the tightest 'camo' set-up you can construct. If it gets pulped, expect selling to gain momentum.

Gold has sold off hard after peaking three weeks ago at $2082, about 1.8% beneath the all-time high at $2122 recorded in August 2020. Because the pullback has come from the pattern's sweet spot above p=2022, we should be prepared to buy the June futures 'mechanically' if they pull back to the green line.  There's nearly $16,000 per contract of theoretical entry risk, so we will naturally be looking to 'camo' our way aboard in order to cut that down to more like $600-$800. Stay tuned to the chat room and keep your account 'Notifications' switched on if you're keen to play.

Expect the futures to make a short-able top at either of the two Hidden Pivot targets shown. They lie, respectively, at 4584.25 and 4645.25, differing only with respect to their point 'A' lows. Pivoteers can attempt to get short at one target or the other, or both, using a reverse pattern with a tight a-b. The higher of these two numbers looks likely to yield better odds. To be sure, it will also trip the alarm of bears who have viewed the nasty short squeeze begun on March 15 as just a bear rally. Even at 4645.25, it might still prove to be that, but we can exploit this possibility only with risk as tightly controlled as the Hidden Pivot Method allows.

Use the pattern shown, with a 4584.50 rally target, to confidently trade and second guess this vehicle. It has already produced a nearly $50,000 'mechanical' winner from x=4216.75 and looks reliable for doing so again if the futures should surprise with another swoon to the green line. More upside to D=4584.50 is not quite a done deal, since we'll need to see this short-squeeze take out p2=4461.75 decisively first. Notice that if 'D' is achieved, that would generate the first major, bullish impulse leg we've seen on the daily chart since a presumptive bear market began on the second trading day of the year. At that point, we bears had better not be so complacent, since the crooks running this gaff would stand an excellent chance of achieving new record highs.

The pattern shown (inset) is pure sausage, with a point 'B' high that occurred in the middle of nowhere. However, it is gnarly enough to work anyway. In practice, this means you can 'mechanically' buy a pullback to the green line (4201.60), stop 4165.00, and also rely on D=4310.75 to precisely cap the rally. The futures stalled Friday at the 4238.00 midpoint pivot, but my gut feeling is that they will leave it in the dust on Monday, all but guaranteeing a finishing stroke to at least 4310.75. You can get short there with a generous stop-loss if you've profited on the way up. Since volume in the June contract will dry up by midweek, here's the September contract, using the same pattern and a target at 4300.00. _______ UPDATE (Jun 14, 10:29 p.m.): Unless you're a masochist, there is no reason to be trading this little POS other than in relationship to my Hidden Pivot levels and targets. Notice that it spent the entire day ratcheting lower in such a way that anyone who was short endured Chinese water-torture. Then, in the final 30 minutes, DaScumballs got it all back and then some with a short-squeeze calculated to keep the pressure on during the night session. This is mother nature's way of telling you that you should be trading this little monster only from the long side to begin with, and that furthermore, there is no way it will embark on a potentially tradeable countertrend until it has reached p2=4274.38 (or, basis the September, p2=4263.88). _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 12:23 a.m.):  I'm going fishin'. Back later. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. ______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 6:55 p.m.): A ten-thousand lemmings went postal on the non-news today that the Fed just might start the dreaded "taper" in, oh, maybe a couple of years. The

There was zero chance shorts were not going to get their chains jerked Friday with a feint above the earlier-in-the week high at 4230.00. I said so in the chat room hours before the breakout, but without any great confidence about whether it was bulls or bears who would ultimately get hosed. If it had happened earlier in the session, I would have advised an 'reverse abc' short using this pattern.  However, given the way things played out, we'll have to wait and see what Sunday night brings before we can formulate a new strategy. My gut feeling is that the angsty price action will settle in favor of bulls and that we will be lifting our sights accordingly to p2=4325.50, but there's no point in speculating until the new week begins. _______ UPDATE (Jun 8, 10:30 p.m.): What a shock. The futures spasmed up and down, 20 points at a time, without going anywhere! See my post in the chat room this evening if you want a more interesting story. ______ UPDATE (Jun 10, 8:58 p.m.): Even though the futures have spent a week in limbo, there is no reason to think they won't reach the 4310.75 target of this pattern, and soon.

Bulls made no progress whatsoever last week toward a 4324.50 target, but that did not make it any less likely to be achieved.  In the meantime, I'll suggest focusing on a more modest objective at 4242.75 that is shown in the chart (inset).  The C-D leg has provided no opportunities so far to get long via a 'mechanical' set-up, but you should be alert to the possibility nonetheless in case the futures swoon.  Accordingly, a bid at the red line (p=  4192.5o) would require a 4175.75 stop-loss, implying about $3300 of initial risk on four contracts. ______ UPDATE (June 1, 3:01 p.m.): Today's gratuitous hump failed to trigger the trade, although it did make it less appealing.  The 4242.75 target remains viable nonetheless. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 9:48 p.m.): Reaching the 4242.75 target should have been a piece of cake, but the futures' failure to so should be viewed as warning of a possible bearish tone change. They are currently on a 'mechanical' short triggered at 4199.00 and predicated on a 4106.00 target. Here's the chart, which was discussed in the chat room as the trade was setting up. 

June Gold has consistently been exceeding minor targets while showing increasing resistance to the $50 takedowns that have plagued bullion since last summer. This gives me increasing confidence that the 2083.90 target shown will be achieved. It was first broached here six weeks ago, a feature of a bullish 'reverse ABC' pattern that looks unlikely to fail us. That means not only that the levels can be used for 'mechanical' entries, but also that last week's penetration of p=1880.10 was undeniably bullish. Notice that the thrust also took out two 'external' peaks from January, adding further evidence that the bozos who have impeded gold in its role as an inflation hedge are finally starting to smarten up. This is good news for gold bugs, though not so much for lovers of bitcoin. ______ UPDATE (May 25, 10:51 p.m. ET): June Gold was wafting effortlessly higher late Tuesday, having pushed through round-number resistance at 1900 with little hesitation. The futures looked bound most immediately for the 1918.60 target shown in this chart, but an easy move past it would telegraph still more upside over the near term. _______ UPDATE (May 27, 5:58 p.m.):  We'll use the pattern shown, with a 1944.90 target,  for the time being.  The futures would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal on a pullback to x=1882.70, but because initial risk would be more than $2000 with the required stop-loss at 1861.90, I'll recommend the trade only to those who are able to cut it down to size with a 'camouflage' set-up.  _______ UPDATE (May 28, 11:06 p.m.):  The trade worked perfectly off a textbook-perfect pattern that has produced a so-far gain of around $1700 per contract. The trampoline bounce followed an 1880.90 low just 80 cents beneath the suggested bid.  In practice, the trade would have produced a quick and