ESM21 – June E-Mini S&PS (Last:4187.25)

Bulls made no progress whatsoever last week toward a 4324.50 target, but that did not make it any less likely to be achieved.  In the meantime, I’ll suggest focusing on a more modest objective at 4242.75 that is shown in the chart (inset).  The C-D leg has provided no opportunities so far to get long via a ‘mechanical’ set-up, but you should be alert to the possibility nonetheless in case the futures swoon.  Accordingly, a bid at the red line (p=  4192.5o) would require a 4175.75 stop-loss, implying about $3300 of initial risk on four contracts. ______ UPDATE (June 1, 3:01 p.m.): Today’s gratuitous hump failed to trigger the trade, although it did make it less appealing.  The 4242.75 target remains viable nonetheless. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 9:48 p.m.): Reaching the 4242.75 target should have been a piece of cake, but the futures’ failure to so should be viewed as warning of a possible bearish tone change. They are currently on a ‘mechanical’ short triggered at 4199.00 and predicated on a 4106.00 target. Here’s the chart, which was discussed in the chat room as the trade was setting up.