June

For sheer arrogance and effrontery, the steep rally that ended the week really takes the cake. Granted, short-covering bears supplied most of the fuel, but the news environment was as discouraging of speculation as we've seen in a while. Consumer inflation was exploding, putting pressure on the Fed to tighten; America's fuel supply had been hijacked by cybercriminals, and the wildly bullish nuttiness in bitcoin was getting quashed by Elon Musk's change of heart. And yet, here were the S&P futures, in a 150-point rally that not only flouted reality, logic and common sense, but which threatened to achieve even loonier new heights. This should tell bears what they are up against: practically unlimited quantities of risk-on capital, much of it supplied in the form of corporate buybacks by companies that can imagine no better use for the money. No one seems to lose as long as this fusion reactor is humming. But because the buybacks produce virtually no real economic growth, it's hardly rocket science to predict that the inflationary spiral of stocks will not end well. For now, I'll eschew new rally targets and simply watch in amazement as the futures ascend to probable new all-time highs. One marginally above last week's record 4238.25 would not be a go-ahead signal as far as I'm concerned, but rather a reason for the utmost caution. It would also put the futures perfectly in our 'discomfort zone', giving us reason to look for ways to get short with our powerful new tool, the 'reverse ABC pattern. Stay tuned if you care. _______ UPDATE (May 18, 10:54 p.m. ET):  Use p=4079 as a minimum downside projection. You can bottom-fish there as well, but if you use the rabc pattern shown in this chart, please note that the entry risk would be around

Bulls spent the week fending off and frustrating sellers before lurching higher toward the 1885.40 target shown.  It is a Hidden Pivot of lesser degree than the one at 1880.10 given here  earlier, but the pattern is so shapely and promising that it justifies raising the target itself.  The pattern can be used to manage the risk of a long position or to acquire one 'mechanically' on the way up.  The bad guys seem to be losing their grip, and it is obvious they are having increasing difficulty pushing gold sharply lower no matter what the news or mood on Wall Street. The effect is subtle, but it is most certainly bullish.  _______    UPDATE (May 19, 10:07 p.m.): The futures achieved our 1885.40 rally target and then some with a thrust to 1891.30. That's not much of an overshoot, but in the context of a target as clear and compelling as this one, we should infer that still higher prices impend. It is a welcome sign that the takedown artists appear to be in a coma after having been punched senseless during the last two weeks.

The 1880.10 rally target first flagged here a while back now looks very likely to be achieved, and sooner than I'd expected just a week ago. Back-to-back rallies on Thursday and Friday caught bulls and bears by surprise, although the former are likely to remain skeptical, given the many setbacks they've suffered over the last ten months.  More interesting than the 1880.10 target is one at 2324.70 activated by the thrust slightly past the green line (1838.30) of a significantly larger pattern. We'll need to see how well buyers handle p=2000.50 of that pattern before we can determine the odds of a further run-up to 2324, but p itself looks no worse than an even bet to be reached. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 11:08 p.m.): Make that, achieved later rather than sooner, since gold has lapsed back into its wonted torment-those-who-love-it-most mode. 

Short covering on Friday drove the futures decisively past a major p2 (secondary ) Hidden Pivot at 4200.44 that had stymied bulls for three weeks. It also left the June contract sitting above the 4222 p2 of a much larger pattern. This means we should expect a further rally to the 4536.50 'D' target over the next 5-8 weeks. A pullback to the red line that would set up a mechanical buying opportunity seems most unlikely, so we'll need to stay alert to entry opportunities on the lesser charts in order to catch a ride. _______ UPDATE (May 10, 5:07 p.m. ET): A few more refreshing selloffs like today's would begin to look interesting, especially if they occur between now and Friday. Specifically, an uncorrected drop exceeding the 4110.50 'external' low shown in this chart would generate the first bearish impulse leg we've enjoyed on the 'daily' since February 2020. _______ UPDATE (May 11, 10:45 p.m.): Hard selling in the morning drove the futures down to 4103.75, creating the bearish impulse leg noted above. Numerous subscribers reported using an rABC pattern I posted in the Trading Room to get long near the intraday low and to catch a ride of as much as 32 points to a target at 4146.50 also provided.  Bulls spent the remainder of the session head-butting that number, a Hidden Pivot, without much success. If they fail again today and the reaction move gets legs, this selloff would begin to look interesting, since it would represent an extremely rare third straight day of steep declines.  _______ UPDATE (May 12, 11:09 p.m.) Now wasn't that refreshing!  Subscribers shouldn't have been too surprised, given my dour outlook lately. The S&Ps have gotten hit hard for three straight days, and we might hope for even more ahead of the weekend.

Bulls are in a dangerous spot, if such a thing were possible in the midst of a relentless, historical buying mania. Last week's record high fell midway between two targets I'd given, respectively, at 4200.44 and 4222.82. Both are 'secondary Hidden Pivots', which we've seen produce a fair number of fatal stalls when they were hit precisely and not exceeded soon thereafter. The lower number comes from a pattern stretching back to the start of the pandemic rally and is tied to a 4536.50 target that lies 8.5% above.  The higher number (4222.82) is tied to the bull market's 2009 low and a pattern projecting to 4905.75. That is the highest target I can project without reaching back to 1932. As always, a decisive push through a clear Hidden Pivot level such as the ones given above implies the next is likely to be reached. We'll be watching in any case. _____ UPDATE (May 4, 8:34 a.m. ET): The secondary pivot at 4200.44 is visually holding like a rock so far, after 17 days. Here's a picture. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 4:59 p.m.):  DaBoyz squeezed shorts in the final minutes of the session, recouping more than half of the day's worst losses.  Even at the 4120.50 intraday bottom, however, sellers failed to breach any prior lows on the daily chart. That would take a print beneath 4110.50, a good place for hopeful bears to set an alert.

Gold has turned punk again, well shy of the 1880.10 midpoint pivot shown in the chart, but also of February 16's external peak at 1817.60.  Exceeding this structural resistance might have offered encouragement; alas, the futures went no higher than 1798. Now, all that bulls have to hang onto is mid-April's successful stab at the green line, which triggered a highly theoretical buy signal. It also activated p=1880.10 as a minimum upside projection, but this goal looks distant, if not to say unattainable, in the context of the daily chart.  Silver, as I keep remarking, looks better -- just not 'better enough' at the moment to drag gold higher through layers of resistance. Where are the robinhood and reddit kiddies when you need them? _______ UPDATE (May 7, 9:13 a.m. ET): With a couple of rare, back-to-back leaps, an energized gold has put my 1880.10 price objective within easy reach. It is a minimum target, but if buyers can impale it on first contact, that would shorten the odds of a further push to 2083.90, the 'D' target of a larger bullish pattern stretching back nearly a year.  And if that Hidden Pivot resistance were to be smashed, we'd be talking -- theoretically -- as high as 2324.70, the 'D' of this pattern. Notice that a theoretical 'buy' signal predicated on that target was triggered at 1838.30,, ticks off the so-far top of today's surge.

I've identified bull market targets as high as 4905.75, but let's use the pattern shown for now, with a less ambitious objective at 4536.50, since the futures are a millimeter from a related, and potentially crucial, benchmark. They traded as high as 4187 on Friday, just 13 points from the secondary Hidden Pivot at 4200.44 shown in the chart.  We shouldn't be surprised to see a tradeable pullback from it, but if buyers blow past or close above it for two straight days, that would put the 4536.50 target well in play. There is one other 'hidden' obstacle noted here earlier: 4222.82, the p2 pivot of the pattern associated with D=4905.75, but we'll ignore it for now to keep things simple.  It may be possible to get short with risk tightly controlled on Monday or Tuesday using a small-degree 'reverse' ABC set-up, but let's play it by ear. Chat-roomers, stay tuned!  _______ UPDATE (Apr 29, 10:13 p.m. ET): Failures precisely at the secondary pivot are especially concerning, so we'll be watching 4200.44 closely. Today's microscopic poke above the line was not enough for us to draw any conclusions, but bulls will need to power decisively above the line to  avoid the suspicion of fatal weakness.

Gold's rally turned sloppy last week after tripping a theoretical buy signal tied to a rally target at 2083.90. It wouldn't be the first time this vehicle has disappointed us just as it seemed to be warming up. Still, the pullback from the recent high has been feeble so far, suggesting bulls are simply biding their time while wild-eyed investors remain fixated on FAANG stocks, small-caps and other whimsical themes. The hotties look likely to continue to draw interest away from bullion, since my target for the DJIA, for one, implies higher prices over the near term.  Gold can rally at the same time, to be sure, but don't get your hopes too high for a quick burst to 1880.10, a midpoint pivot shown in the chart that can serve as our minimum upside objective for now. ______ UPDATE (Apr 29, 10:22 p.m.): Looking like its nasty old self, gold took a gratuitous mid-morning plunge that has put the burden of proof back on bulls for the time being.  We'll set the bar at 1796.40 so that we don't get suckered in. That's a tick above an 'external' peak recorded April 23 on the way down.

The 4905.75 target is as high as I can project for this bull market.  Although it lies nearly 20% above, this hardly seems ambitious considering the ease with which buyers have crushed Hidden Pivot resistances of lesser, albeit significant, degree over the last twelve months.  Neither the target nor the secondary pivot (p2) at 4222.81 will be precisely correct for trading purposes, since the chart is a blend of many monthly contracts stretching back more than a decade. But they should prove good enough for government work, meaning we can try shorting very near them using 'reverse ABC' set-ups.  We can also use the Hidden Pivots at 4200.44 and 4536.50 given here previously for precise targeting, risk management and getting short. They are likely to work well, since both come from a clear pattern associated with the single-contract month of June. ______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 8:53 p.m.): Sellers pounded the hell out of a Hidden Pivot support at 4152.00, so I wouldn't put too much store in the weak rally that has followed.  The yellow flag is out, with slippage in prospect toward a low last week at 4113.00 that begs to be tested. Here's a chart that shows everything. ______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 6:30 p.m.): The test of support came expectedly as expected, but bulls did not exactly pass with flying colors. Now, if the futures were to close lower on Wednesday for a third consecutive day, that would be extremely unusual and probably bearish. Let's see what the day brings.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:00 p.m.): Shorts tripped over themselves and soiled their pants, so eager were they to get' em back today. A key takeaway from the rally is this: If you initiate a long index position at the end of a second consecutive down day, you