June

Subscribers reported profiting from a 4103.25 rally target I'd drum-rolled here two weeks ago, when the futures were trading more than 100 points lower. Some of you were long part of the way up, while others got short at the target using a 'reverse rABC pattern' I'd put out earlier that evening. Because the futures topped at 4102.50, less than a point from my number, it was easy money -- as much as $900 per contract in mere hours.  We began Friday not knowing whether the top would hold, but like countless others since 2009, the bullish herd made quick work of it. This implies that the June contract is likely to reach a minimum 4200.44, the secondary pivot shown in the chart. Moreover, if this 'hidden' resistance, too, is crushed, we would need to shift our sights up to 4536.50. That's as high as the daily chart goes, and therefore a great place to attempt getting short with the usual ultra-tight stop-loss. Notice that the move through p=3864.38 was more of a drift than an impalement. That means I cannot quite guarantee that either of these Hidden Pivot objectives will be reached. However, the lower one at 4200 looks like about an 85% shot to get hit; and 4536, about 75%. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance on getting short with risk extremely tightly controlled. As long-time subscribers may have noticed, we've had little trouble making money over the years by going against the crazed herd precisely at promising Hidden Pivot targets. (Recall that a 234.82 target in IWM target that caught the all-time high in mid-March within pennies has yet to be exceeded following a 27-point plunge amounting to almost 12%.) _______ UPDATE (Apr 13, 9:27 p.m.): While we're waiting for El Diablo to ascend to

Although the current Silver tout enthuses about possible trading opportunities, Gold's chart is about as appealing as warm beer. The most bullish thing you could say about the May contract is that it has so far avoided falling to a 1614.60 target that had looked magnetic. Last week's feint slightly above the 'C' high of the bearish pattern that produced that target has negated it, but it would take a further push exceeding Feb 23's 'external' high at 1817.60 to put the bear into hibernation. The lesser charts will be tradeable in either direction nonetheless, and we can use this big-picture view not only to board this vehicle 'mechanically', but to fantasize about its 2083.90 target.  For now, let's cross our fingers and see if the futures can get to x=1778.1. That would put p=1880.10 in play as a minimum upside objective. I don't usually render unsignaled targets in green, but without a little added 'color,' gold's chart is almost too dispiriting to contemplate.

The futures spent three days consolidating for a pre-Easter push toward the 4103.25 rally target first flagged here a week ago. It remains valid and should be achieved by no later than midweek. As always, an easy move past so compelling a Hidden Pivot resistance would imply that still-higher prices are coming. The futures have not pulled back enough to permit a 'mechanical' entry, but we should be alert to the opportunity as the new week begins. It would require a pullback from the pink line to the red, ideally within the space of a 24-hour period. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 8:25 p.m.): At press time, the futures were slithering to within inches of the 4103.25 target. You can short it using the tight rABC pattern shown in this chart. I would suggest 'dropping anchor' with a point 'c' high only when the futures have reached 4102.75 or higher.  The small a-b segment of this 'reverse' set-up will limit risk to a theoretical $150 or so per contract -- about all the trade is worth, considering that we'll be fading a tsunami of crazed buying.

Gold tripped a so-so mechanical short Thursday when it rallied to 1730.70, the green line. When I mentioned this in the chat room, I rated the trade a 7.0; however, on closer inspection it is not quite so appealing. For one, the three legs of the pattern are too mellow; and for two, the rally to 'x' began above the sweet spot. Because of the $14,000 initial risk on four contracts, I advised initiating the trade with an 'reverse ABC 'pattern on the hourly chart that has yet to trigger. It would reduce theoretical risk to around $1000. I am now suggesting that you cancel the trade until we've seen how gold opens following a three-day weekend. If the June contract pushes above C=1756.00 it would be as bullish a sign as we've seen in bullion in a while. Alternatively, if the futures relapse you can use 1614.60 as a downside target. That would be a back-up-the-truck opportunity to get long, as far as I'm concerned. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 6:45 p.m. EDT): This rally looks like doo-doo, with upthrusts that are failing to surpass prior peaks on the hourly chart. I'll take this as mildly bullish, since gold has a nasty habit of reversing when it looks worst, and of dying just when one feels encouraged. 

Bears got ambushed Friday in the final hour, setting up a likely short squeeze to begin the new week. If so, it is just an inch to new record highs that would likely pull the broad averages along. Most significant among them is the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has been feigning weakness for the last six weeks while fund managers rotated funds from growthies to relative 'value' stocks.  The E-Mini S&Ps seem all but certain to move to new heights, but if the FAANGs and other 'lunatic' stocks get in gear with them, bears had better retreat to their bomb shelters. In any case, you can use the 4103.25 target shown in this chart as a minimum upside objective if buyers push this gas bag decisively above p=3973.25 intraday or close above it for two consecutive days. ______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:10 p.m. EDT): The futures have played patticake all week with the 3973 pivot, biding their time until the Archegos disaster blows over. They have lost no ground, however, and appeared revved at today's clos to rally ahead of the three-day weekend.

Sellers turned timid as the week ended, but they still had bulls mildly on the run. With just a little more weakness ES would trip a bland 'mechanical' buy at p=3890.63, stop 3830.50, but I'd suggest passing it up for a less risky play at x=3800.56. If the futures appear reluctant to come all the way down to meet our niggardly bid, we can always attempt another way in. My gut feeling is that the current pullback will stop out a long initiated at the red line, but that the futures will have the potential in any event to reach the 4070.75 target. It is equivalent to one at 4083.75 that we'd been using for the March contract. _______ UPDATE (Mar 23, 6:04 p.m. ET): Sellers have been too timid to do more than limp through the day, and sell-offs lasting more than two days have been extremely rare. If  recent weakness is about to intensify, it would be telegraphed by an easy penetration of the 3846.50 Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart. That's my minimum downside objective for the moment. ________ UPDATE (Mar 24, 11:29 p.m.): The futures will have a chance to turn from 3860.75, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 3859.75, or with a tight rABC pattern. Notice in the chart that today's rally to the green line tripped a textbook 'mechanical' short tied to D=3860.75. _____ UPDATE (Mar 25, 6:01 p.m.): The first trade suggested above would have produced a quick $50 loss, but trying again at the lower number, 3846.50, would have gotten you aboard 3.25 points from the low of a 63-point rally worth up to $3100 per contract. Bears were on the ropes at the close, but this short squeeze would need to touch 3951

Friday's afternoon's histrionics triggered a 'mechanical' short at 9721.50 that has left a 9338.25 target in play well below these levels. (Please note that the equivalent target for the September contract is 9327.50.] Although the futures got socked on the opening bar Sunday night, this was just the usual sleazy ploy to exhaust sellers, the better to run NQ back up their old wazoo.  If they return in droves for a second wave of selling before dawn, however, DaBoyz may need to take this vehicle down to the D target flagged above to set-up the next short-squeeze.  None of this will have much bearing on the very bullish target at 10571 billboarded here earlier.

Sellers left stocks hanging on for dear life at the close, implying the market is unlikely to come roaring back to end the week. A few more days of punishment could lie ahead, but how much more of it are we likely to see. The chart shows two Fibonacci levels that would equate to pullbacks of, respectively, 61.8% and 78.6%, measured against the powerful rally begun from 2760 on May 14. The corresponding levels are 2940, which lies 86 points below; and 2861, which would imply a 166-point plunge. I doubt that this correction -- and that's what I think it is -- will exceed the May 14 bottom, but if sellers crush a couple more external lows on Friday (i.e., 2992 and 2903), we may need to reconsider.

Bulls faced two daunting Hidden Pivot obstacles on Friday, demolishing both with little effort. They'd been well advertised here, making them less than ideal as places to get short. Fortunately, they appear to have kept some subscribers who've had trouble believing this absurd rally from getting short prematurely. You should prepare yourselves now for upside to at least 3300.50, the Hidden pivot shown in the chart. Judging from the way the uptrend has impaled the secondary pivot at 3165.44, the June contract should have little difficulty getting there. We'll want to squeeze off a short at that point, but as usual, I am recommending the trade mainly to those of you who have made some money -- at least $1000 in this case -- on the way up.  Please note that the equivalent target for the September contract, which will become active the week of June 15, is 3285.50. Here is the chart. _______ UPDATE (June 8, 9:28 p.m. EDT): Use this pattern to trade the little monsters en route to the bigger-picture target at 3300.50 noted above. It projects to 3259.50, and all levels -- x. p and p2 -- can be used to position a 'mechanical' bid that meets the criteria of the Hidden Pivot Method. As always, seek real-tie guidance in the Trading Room if you are interested._______ UPDATE (June 9, 10:22 p.m.): You're up $5200 at the moment if you used the pattern linked in the previous update to stage a 'mechanical' bid at the green line. The set-up was textbook-perfect, although it took the futures six hours to get airborne after they tripped a buy signal at 4:30 a.m. Eastern. Here's the chart. If I hear from two subscribers who are still in the trade, I'll establish a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (June 10, 10:22