Subscribers reported profiting from a 4103.25 rally target I’d drum-rolled here two weeks ago, when the futures were trading more than 100 points lower. Some of you were long part of the way up, while others got short at the target using a ‘reverse rABC pattern’ I’d put out earlier that evening. Because the futures topped at 4102.50, less than a point from my number, it was easy money — as much as $900 per contract in mere hours. We began Friday not knowing whether the top would hold, but like countless others since 2009, the bullish herd made quick work of it. This implies that the June contract is likely to reach a minimum 4200.44, the secondary pivot shown in the chart. Moreover, if this ‘hidden’ resistance, too, is crushed, we would need to shift our sights up to 4536.50.
That’s as high as the daily chart goes, and therefore a great place to attempt getting short with the usual ultra-tight stop-loss. Notice that the move through p=3864.38 was more of a drift than an impalement. That means I cannot quite guarantee that either of these Hidden Pivot objectives will be reached. However, the lower one at 4200 looks like about an 85% shot to get hit; and 4536, about 75%. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance on getting short with risk extremely tightly controlled. As long-time subscribers may have noticed, we’ve had little trouble making money over the years by going against the crazed herd precisely at promising Hidden Pivot targets. (Recall that a 234.82 target in IWM target that caught the all-time high in mid-March within pennies has yet to be exceeded following a 27-point plunge amounting to almost 12%.) _______ UPDATE (Apr 13, 9:27 p.m.): While we’re waiting for El Diablo to ascend to at least 4200.44, here’s a potential mechanical set-up, presumably for night owls. The chart shows a bid at 4124.25, stop 4116.50, predicated on a 4147.25 target. Somewhat less risky would be to attempt it at the green line, provided it’s hit ahead of Wednesday’s opening. This is for expert ‘mechanics’ only, with a potential quick, $4000 payoff. ______ UPDATE (Apr 14, 5:35 p.m.): Both trades triggered. The first got stopped out by two ticks for a $1600 loss, while the second produced a gain so far of $2200. That would rise to $4500 if you eventually exit at D=4147.25. No one mentioned these trades in the chat room, so I’ve assumed interest was nil. If anyone had, I’d have warned you off the first trade (although not the second), since the rally that preceded it got close to D. _______ UPDATE (Apr 15, 8:58 p.m.): The predicted climb to at least 4200.44 looks to be in-the-bag, but because a stall at the secondary pivot can have serious consequences, we should monitor price action there closely.