Sellers turned timid as the week ended, but they still had bulls mildly on the run. With just a little more weakness ES would trip a bland ‘mechanical’ buy at p=3890.63, stop 3830.50, but I’d suggest passing it up for a less risky play at x=3800.56. If the futures appear reluctant to come all the way down to meet our niggardly bid, we can always attempt another way in. My gut feeling is that the current pullback will stop out a long initiated at the red line, but that the futures will have the potential in any event to reach the 4070.75 target. It is equivalent to one at 4083.75 that we’d been using for the March contract. _______ UPDATE (Mar 23, 6:04 p.m. ET): Sellers have been too timid to do more than limp through the day, and sell-offs lasting more than two days have been extremely rare. If recent weakness is about to intensify, it would be telegraphed by an easy penetration of the 3846.50 Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart. That’s my minimum downside objective for the moment. ________ UPDATE (Mar 24, 11:29 p.m.): The futures will have a chance to turn from 3860.75, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 3859.75, or with a tight rABC pattern. Notice in the chart that today’s rally to the green line tripped a textbook ‘mechanical’ short tied to D=3860.75. _____ UPDATE (Mar 25, 6:01 p.m.): The first trade suggested above would have produced a quick $50 loss, but trying again at the lower number, 3846.50, would have gotten you aboard 3.25 points from the low of a 63-point rally worth up to $3100 per contract. Bears were on the ropes at the close, but this short squeeze would need to touch 3951 to threaten them seriously.
ESM20 – June E-Mini S&Ps (Last:3887.75)