I've been quietly promoting a 486.17 target as a place to get short, and although I am still recommending that you attempt it with a very tight stop-loss, I am no longer as enthused. It was based on a variant of my favorite pattern, a 'quickie' ABC followed by a long, dragged-out C-D leg. In this case, I ignored a visually compelling ABC whose 477 target had already been exceeded to favor a bastardized pattern with a still unfulfilled target. The change has forced me to the big, bullish pattern shown, with a target at 503.69. The pattern looks much too obvious to work precisely, but the gap through p=424.24 still all but guarantees that D will be reached, at least. If it doesn't stop the rally precisely, it will surely impose a formidable obstacle, and possibly a fatal one. This is important to consider, since a major top in MSFT would mark the start of a bear market for stocks in general. _______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 3:14 p.m. EDT): The stock has made a so-far high today at 487.75, somewhat above my target. See the chat room discussion for explicit instruction on getting short. ______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 9:40 a.m. EDT): The short triggered around 7:10 a.m. this morning when the stock dropped from an off-hours high at 492.00 to 489.26. A drop of an additional 2.74 (equal to the suggested trigger interval) dictated profit-tsking at 486.53. The trade is still 'live', with a break-even-or-better stop-loss on the remaining 50% of the position. The downside target is 481.06, where most (although not all) of the position that is left is to be covered. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 1:19 p.m. EDT): Check my post in the chat room just now for a tradable update.
Headline news from the Middle East loosened DaBoyz' deadly grip on shorts as the week ended, but it did not disturb my expectation of a potentially juicy short at exactly 486.17. That Hidden Pivot target was first signaled five weeks ago, and it has kept us from turning too bearish on the stock market despite an apparent dearth of buying interest in the broad averages. I cannot say exactly when MSFT will hit the target, but when it gets within a few pennies of it we should be ready to jump on some options, either naked shorting soon-to-expire calls or buying some cheapie, expiring puts. Stay tuned to the chat room for timely guidance. Also keep in mind that a major top in this stock will end the bull market begun in 2009, and that this could be it.
Try shorting the 486.17 target shown, since it promises a high-odds climax to the hoax rally that has wafted MSFT into the ozone since May 1. I explained earlier how this trick is done, and I will not belabor the details yet again. However, the manipulators themselves are controlled by forces they do not acknowledge, much less understand, and that's why this pattern will work. It can also be used to bottom-fish a swoon using a mechanical bid at 458.64, stop 449.46. To enhance your odds, I will not drum-roll this target in the chat room, nor make it publicly viewable.
I was counting on MSFT to drop the hell dead so that it could lead the stock market lower. Alas, it spent the entire week diddling a 462.26 voodoo number where I still expect the the biggest-cap stock in the world, to make an important top. Although it was satisfying to have nailed the top, within a few pennies, of the vicious short squeeze that followed May 1 earnings news that surprised no one (except shorts), watching the stock go all feeble and aimless since then has been an ordeal of patience. My hunch is that new all-time highs are coming, although I will be very careful not to assume that this will pull the broad averages along with it. In the meantime, I'll recommend bottom-fishing at 451.18 with a tight stop if the opportunity arises.
Thursday's stab higher failed by $2 to reach a 462.26 voodoo number I'd advertised here, so we ended the week without taking home a short position. The stock barely held above an 'external' low at 448.73 on Friday, but the obviousness of this structural all but guarantees that sellers will crush it when the new week begins. That would create a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart, the first since late March. If bears are agitated enough to push the futures below a second 'external' low at 431.11 notched on May 7 without any upward corrections, that would double the putative power of the impulse leg. _______ UPDATE (May 27, 6:18 pm}: MSFT's rally from a too obvious low on Friday would ordinarily have brought a punitive reversal. But I didn't foresee that DaBoyz would throw the switch to activate short-squeeze conditions. They are already prepping for an ambitious run-up to challenge the old record highs. I have expressed serious doubts they will get there, but I am not about to lay odds. See my chat room comments today regarding Peter Eliades.
When the white-shoed crime syndicate that controls this stock goosed it for a quick 30-point gain on May 1, they probably didn't expect to get as much additional mileage as the stock has delivered since. It now looks like a shoo-in to achieve thee 488.75 target shown. That as much as ensures that the bull market has a ways to run, since the Nasdaq is tethered to MSFT now that it has become a relative-strength engine once again. If the stock should relapse to p=416,.77, however unlikely, that would trigger a very enticing mechanical buy, stop 392.77.
MSFT wasted a week with its failure to achieve a modest 'conventional' Hidden Pivot target at 450.24. I didn't make the target viewable on this page, even by paying subscribers, because I didn't want to queer its voodoo magic. However, it still looks like a terrific place to attempt getting short with a tightly crafted 'camo' trigger. If you don't know enough about them to fool around, I'll suggest buying a few puts or naked-shorting some near-the-money, soon-to-expire calls when the stock gets within 1.00 of the target. Tie the position to a tight stop-loss, since the trade is likely to work precisely if at all, and be sure to nail down a small partial profit if the opportunity arises. _______ UPDATE (May 15, 5:10 p.m..): The sleazeballs who control this fusion-powered 'wealth-generator' are milking the huge short-squeeze gap from May 1 for all it's worth. MSFT now looks like it will hit 477.45 before DaBoyz run into real resistance. Short there, too, with a stop-loss as tight as 0.20-0.40 cents. For your information, the short I'd recommended above from 450.24 could have produced a quick, juicy gain, since the stock fell to 439.78 on May 12 after topping at 450.59 the same day, just ahead of the regular-session opening.
The slimeballs who manipulate this stock for a living made full use of a short-squeeze opportunity when Microsoft announced earnings after Wednesday's close that unsurprisingly surpassed estimates. What could bears have been thinking?? DaBoyz kicked off the celebration with a $40 rally after the close, then worked their criminal magic again on Friday's opening to hoist the stock a further $10. Realize that no stock changed hands during the spectacular first stage of this maneuver, and only a relative handful of shares traded on the second. The result was an approximately $317 billion contribution to the financial realm's gaseous 'wealth effect'. Most of it came in mere nanoseconds, since that's how long it takes to create an enormous gap on a chart. This is a feat that mere bullish buying could never have hoped to achieve. It required mainly the arrant stupidity of shorts, who dependably acted as though the risk of getting blown out of the water was negligible. If I had to guess where MSFT, financialization's chief instrument for adding fake money to the system, is headed, I'd say to xxx.xx. I don't want to queer the bold, Hidden Pivot magic of this number, so I'll post it only in the chat room.
MSFT should have little difficulty reaching the 400.26 rally target early in the week. If the 'D' target were not such a juicy round number, I'd recommend shorting there aggressively. However, many traders will be counting on it to halt the stock's ascent temporarily. The bar that pushed the stock past p=378.06 was bluntly decisive, implying you could buy the stock anywhere above C=355.86 and be confident of cashing it out eventually at 400.26. For better risk management, though, you should try to get long using a 'camouflage' trigger from the 5- or 15-minute chart.
There are idiosyncratic reasons for selecting the reverse pattern shown, but its main purpose is to bring visual clarity to the 'mechanical' buy signal that would trigger if MSFT touches the green line (x=362.44), which it almost certainly will. I was unable to drag the 'a' low into the picture, but if you want to replicate the chart, it lies at 385.58 (8/5/24). There's plenty of potential here, although I would find a way around the textbook stop-loss at 344.78. A 'camo' trigger fashioned from the 5-minute chart would allow you to test the water without risking more than relative pocket change.
