Microsoft

This pattern, with a 353.96 bear-market target, is such a gem that I hate to publish it, since putting it on the home page, even visible only to paying subscribers, could queer its gnarly perfection. It has signaled winners at every turn: shorting at the green line conventionally; shorting there 'mechanically' a week later; and now, betting all your marbles on a tradable turned from D=353.96 -- a conventional target, no less!  Trade this however you please, since it cannot miss. I'll be looking to naked-short puts myself, but also calls until the target is reached. It is guaranteed. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 1:18 p.m.): MSFT gapped below the target before launching into a nearly $30 rally. The island reversal this left on the intraday charts is bullish, but it looks like the stock will need to correct down to 352.65 to find good traction. It is currently trading for around 361 and falling. _______ UPDATE (Apr 9, 9:57 a.m. EDT):  The stock needs one more relapse to fulfill  the 332.11 target shown. My strong gut feeling is that it will get there.

Microsoft sat poised on a high ledge when the dust settled on Friday. Although the visually unavoidable plunge the chart displays so well could wait for a few weeks or longer, it's highly unlikely the stock's institutional sponsors will be able to hoist it to the $420 midpoint of the supply zone, never mind to new record highs.  The alternative is a wealth-destroying slide into the low $300s that should bring a bounty of opportunity for the nimble, since it will be reflexively punctuated by rallies designed to keep hope alive until a bottom is reached.

MSFT's glory days may not return soon, but the polio-inflicted rally begun two weeks ago from a shell-shocked low at 377 has at least a little farther to go. Specifically, a Hidden Pivot resistance at 398.06 beckons and can be used as a minimum upside target for the next 2-3 days. A tradable pullback is likely there, but the effect could be muted by my billboarding it on the front page. (Please note: It is visible only to paying subscribers.) Pivoteers can hitch a ride coming and/or going, but I'd suggest a tightly constructed 'camo' trigger for the short.

MSFT is the unwitting captive of the pattern shown, with immediate upside potential to 398.06. Judging from the ease with which short-covering bears bulldozed the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 387.49, they should have little trouble inadvertently boosting the stock to the target Monday or Tuesday. If they are still feeling their oats, the next logical price objective would be 414.57, the 'd' target of a larger reverse pattern. Its corresponding midpoint resistance lies at 395.74, so a precise stall there would validate the pattern and increase the odds of an equally precise, shortable top if and when 413.80 is reached.

Although a longstanding correction target at 373.39 remains viable, we'll go with a more timely picture that is bullish and which projects a bounce to as high as 418.66.  Friday's dip to the green line (x=390.43) triggered a 'mechanical' buy short that would require a 380 stop-loss, but we'll paper trade this one for now. It should be good for a ride up to at least p=399.83, but a decisive move through that midpoint Hidden Pivot would open a path to the 'd' target at 418 mentioned above.  _______ UPDATE (March 10, 11:00 a.m.): My apologies for the rickism of the month. I've corrected the trade noted above that was triggered at 390.43, since it was a 'mechanical' buy under discussion, not a short sale. Also, in case you didn't notice, MSFT failed to bounce and is falling with a vengeance, presumably to the 373.39 target we've been using for quite some time. _______ UPDATE (Mar 12): The bombed-out low of Microsoft's 40-point slide over the last three weeks missed my target by 3.52, or 0.9%, but a relapse that would fulfill the target exactly is still possible.  It would be worth bottom-fishing.

The stock is on a 'mechanical' short signaled when it poked energetically above 435.47 last week. The 373.39 downside target advertised here earlier looks likely to be achieved. If so, it would be a down payment on a bigger drop to around 300, which I continue to expect. It will also provide an appealing place to bottom-fish, notwithstanding that it has appeared on my front page, available to paying subscribers only. It's possible MSFT will resume bull-market leadership with a strong rebound from 373.39. However, I will continue to favor Bitcoin as my #1 bellwether, since it reflects the manic speculative energy that has fueled the bull market since covid.

MSFT spent yet another week hopscotching lower on voodoo numbers that point toward more tedium. The look of the chart should be no comfort to bulls, since it shows DaBoyz slathering on layers of supply since early 2024. Never underestimate their ability to goose this stock 30 points higher in a relative blink of an eye, however, since they've demonstrated great cunning at instigating short-covering gaps on the opening bar. Their pony may do just one trick, but the trick makes it much harder to get short and stay short as the stock edges toward the ledge of a $100 drop-off. More immediately, I expect the initial plunge to hit 373.39 before the stock can gain traction. A rally touching 435.47 first would offer an excellent opportunity to get short.

Unlike AAPL, Microsoft's weakness cannot be attributed to unforced errors, or even to the prospect of recession. The stock has simply leveled  off after a spectacular run-up in the first half of 2024. There isn't much to support it just below, however, and that's why it could fall hard if just one engine sputters out. I'd be inclined to try bottom-fishing at 393.19, an interesting voodoo number, in any case, but with a very tight stop loss created with a small 'reverse pattern'. If this magic level were to give way, the next stop would likely be around 375, where a cluster of obscure supports lies.

The world's most important stock, supported by bombproof annual revenues approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars,+  has been trapped in a tedious range since July.  Is it being distributed to widows and pensioners, or are the institutional geniuses who have held it forever simply marking time ahead of their next opportunity to mark it up? Whatever the case, it has been tightly controlled within a gently pitched channel that contains no breakouts or breakdowns. My gut feeling is that this is about to change with a gratuitous fall to 393.19, a voodoo number suited for aggressive bottom-fishing. I would suggest using a trigger interval no wider than 1.50 points, with the 'c' low planted within $1.00 or less of the voodoo.