The so-far low for this month at 297.45 just missed triggering a 'mechanical' buy at the green line, 294.75. If the Cubes should relapse to it in the weeks ahead, the trade would still be a 'go', subject to a sop loss just beneath C=260.11. Subscribers will notice that the 398.68 target of the pattern shown is somewhat higher than the already ambitious one at 377.14 presented here earlier. This is a lesser pattern, but I've given it precedence nonetheless because it is more easily managed for trading purposes. Regardless of whether Mr Market gifts us with a pullback to the green line, the 398.68 target would become an odds-on bet to be reached following a decisive move past p=329.40. ______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 6:37 p.m.): Reading my last few touts for this vehicle, subscribers might not recall that a long-ago forecast nailed the so-far all-time high within three-tenths of a percent. The 337.10 target was dropped from subsequent touts and updates after QQQ peaked at 338.19 exactly a month ago. It has since recouped half of the steep plunge to 297 (!), but that hardly negates the possibility that a bull market top is in. This update is simply to put 337.10 back on-the-record and to add heft to the still speculative idea that we are in a bear market.
DaBoyz have beaten down the lunatic sector pretty hard simply because they had to. With bubble chatter at 100 decibels, it became necessary to rotate Other People's Money into quieter places. The mere process suggests that 'they' have control and plan to take stocks higher. This will occur just as soon as investors return to their wonted state of obliviousness toward insane stock valuations and rampant speculation in every investable save bullion. To help distract us from the recurring idea that the Mother of All Tops is in, I will maintain my focus on the ambitious 377.14 target in this vehicle. Traders will also want to notice that if a selloff hits p=271.04 it would trigger an attractive 'mechanical' buy, stop 235.67. There are no guarantees 'D' will be reached, however, given the lengthy basing period at p. ______ UPDATE (Mar 10, 4:04 p.m.): DaBoyz gapped QQQ higher on the opening, but the relatively weak selloff suggests the uptrend is likely to continue. The thrust exceeded three minor 'external' peaks, adding to the hidden power of the move. Here's a chart that shows it.
Lest we get so wrapped up in the imminent prospect of a major top, here's a long-term chart of the Cubes to keep the bullish imagination supple. It projects a 20% rally to a 377.14 target that might have seemed absurd a year ago. At the moment, however, it looks like an odd-on bet to be achieved, notwithstanding the toppy look of the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. Price action at the 271.04 midpoint pivot was choppy, but most of it occurred above the pivot, and that's why the D target itself should be regarded as a good bet to be reached. If it were to occur by way of a spiky rally, I'd eagerly back up the truck to get short there. More likely in my estimation is that it will be a bumpy ride to the target if it is in fact achieved. A pullback first to p=271.04 would be widely heralded as the start of a bear market, but in the context of this chart, it would actually present an excellent 'mechanical' buying opportunity (with a stop-loss placed at 235.67).
QQQ poked its rapacious snout just above a compelling Hidden Pivot resistance at 337.10 last week, then rolled down with somewhat more conviction than the Dow. It ended the week toward the lows, leaving the possibility of a hung jury when the new week begins. We’ll reserve judgment for now, but if short-covering should shred the resistance and leave it behind, I’d have to grudgingly concede that the 352.09 secondary pivot shown in this chart is in play as a minimum upside objective. Another interesting aspect of the chart is that QQQ would trip an enticing ‘mechanical’ buy if it were to plunge 12% to the green line at 290.77. ______ UPDATE (Feb 25, 5:53 p.m.): It's been a long time since a week ended with a crushing decline, but perhaps this will be the one patient bears can celebrate. The fact that the selloff begun ten days ago from a high 1.09 points above our longstanding target at 337.10 at least makes it interesting.
Tracking three sets of targets for two vehicles -- QQQ and the E-Mini Nasdaq -- in one tout became unwieldly and confusing, so I am limiting this analysis for simplicity's sake. The 337.10 rally target shown corresponds very closely to targets in ES and DIA that were missed last week by millimeters. A hat-trick of major tops is possible, and I've suggested getting short speculatively via puts in DIA and/or IWM. You're on your own if you elect to trade the E-Mini Nasdaq, but as far as I can tell there are only a handful of subscribers with the experience and brass balls needed to get in its way. My target for it, flagged here earlier, is 13836. The actual high last week was 13821. _______ UPDATE (Feb 16, 8:00 p.m.): Both QQQ and the E-Mini Nasdaq (NQ) reversed after slightly exceeding their respectively rally targets. If you got short at either, stop yourself out on a close above the highs. ______ UPDATE (Feb 17, 8:33 p.m.): After exceeding the 13836 rally target by 64 points, the futures have plunged, trading more than 300 points below it. If you got short and hung on, as much as half of the position should have been covered by now.
My imagination has failed whenever I've tried to predict the potential Mother of All Tops. We've nailed some nice peaks along the way, usually making a few bucks on the short side before the inevitable reversals occurred. However, the 377.14 target shown in today's chart (see inset) looks like the most promising so far for delivering a big winner. The three coordinates I've used to draw the pattern are elemental and even historical, comprising the 2009 start of the longest bull market in U.S. history, and then the start and finish of the mind-blowing pandemic collapse last February/March. The 377.14 target is simple and compelling, but also an ambitious stretch for anyone who may have thought the radical change in political leadership would get no honeymoon on Wall Street. This chart allows for a further 12% rally even though 2021 is fraught with potential economic pitfalls and vaccine disappointments that should have made investors far more cautious. Few doubt at this point that they are out of their minds, or that a bear market worthy of the name is long overdue. It will become even more overdue if and when QQQ hits 377.14. The equivalent rally target for the E-Mini Nasdaq is 15351, shown in this chart. To be extra cautious, let me mention two numbers for the QQQ and the Mini-Nasdaq that reflect, respectively, the midway points between p2 and D: 350.51 and 14262. I am flagging these price points because it would not be unprecedented for a bull market to sputter out in, so-to-speak, the middle of nowhere. Finally, there's this promising target at 13836 in the E-Mini Nasdaq. For short term plays, the pattern looks hard to beat -- not only for shorting D with a very tight stop-loss, but for 'mechanically' buying a pullback to p=13,281.
The Cubes have rolled down from within an inch of a 331.87 Hidden Pivot target that has been in play theoretically since early October. It kept us on the right side of what may prove to be the last gasp of the bull mania begun in March. It also allowed us to acquire put options with great timing. Whichever puts you hold, including butterfly spreads that I'd suggested, you should cash out half your position if and when its value doubles. If the fledgling downtrend gets legs, we can roll positions as warranted. The multitude of possible point 'A' lows in the chart argues against certitude that the bull market top is in. However, the prospect in somewhat corroborated by the recent top in the E-Mini Nasdaq. I'd been drum-rolling a potential top at exactly 13,555 for quite a while, and this pivot came within 50 cents (three thousandths of one percent) of nailing the sharply etched top recorded last Monday. After diving hard for a day, the futures subsequently head-faked to 13,600 before taking an even bigger plunge. However, there can be little doubt that bulls were feeling the weight of the Hidden Pivot. Here's the chart, and although the point 'A' low is not as distinctive as I'd prefer, it has the advantage of being the only visible choice. FYI, the lesser downtrend begun last Wednesday projects, with so-so clarity, to 12712. No clear equivalent is evident for QQQ. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 9:08 p.m. EST): Su-prize su-prize. The futures have rallied sharply from a low at 12727 that missed my correction target by a tenth of one percent. Now, if it pushes above the record 13,599 achieved last week, that will be no reason to let down our guard. _______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 5:52 p.m.): Bears are
Use the 331.87 target shown in the chart to warn of a potentially important top, since another at 382.75 that I'd identified here a week seems far too ambitious with Biden nominally in charge of America. The point 'A' low is not as distinctive as we should prefer, but it's good enough to imply that bulls are unlikely to simply blow past 331.87, even with the help of nervous-Nellie shorts. Another reason I prefer this target is that it closely coincides with one at 13,555 in the E-Mini Nasdaq that has been on our radar since September. Here's a chart that shows it. We already hold puts in QQQ, but I'll recommend buying a few more cheap ones when 13,555 is reached. Like the target in QQQ, it looks unlikely to be a pushover. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 8:24 p.m. EST): Now wasn't that refreshing! The Cubes shed nearly 3% of their value today after topping at 330.32 on Monday, a hair below my target. As for the E-Mini Nasdaq, it got sacked for a 4.4% loss after cresting a millimeter (0.6%) above the 13,555 target first drum-rolled here months ago. Let's see if the selloff snowballs into something frightening enough to wipe the smile off the Reddit/Robinhood crowd's face. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:35 p.m.): The 331.87 target remains unsullied by all the nuttiness, but we'll give it up if the Cubes can close for two consecutive days above it..
I've switched to a less ambitious pattern for two reasons: 1) this one produced two pullbacks from close to p, validating the pattern itself and its D target at 332.14; and 2) the target is less than three points from the 329.40 midpoint of the old pattern, effectively creating a double resistance. The Cubes look well energized to succeed, especially if the momentum of the last three sessions carries a day or two into this week. Our best bet for getting aboard will be by way of a 'mechanical' set-up encompassing the rightmost bars. Most immediately, a swoon to 309.48 would trip the signal, stop 305.17 (daily, A=298.09 on 12/10; B= 315.29 on 1/4). _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 5:33 p.m. EST): Cancel the bid, since another trade triggered at the red line and has taken off after narrowly missing getting stopped out. A 322.38 rally target obtains, the D of a smaller pattern than the one yielding 332.14. ______ UPDATE (Jan 14, 6;44 p.m.): Following my suggestion in the chat room today, subscribers took small, bearish positions using puts of their choosing below the 300 strike and expiring around mid-February. This will help augment a small speculative position we hold in IWM in case inaugural week doesn't go as smoothly as nearly everyone seems to expect. ______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 8:27 p.m.): Buyers smoked the 322.38 Hidden Pivot so badly that they seem unstoppable. I always provide a new price target when this happens, buy in this case the obvious number is difficult to imagine: 382.75. Here's the chart, but let's wait and see if p=321.43 is left choking on dust by week's end. That would add to the likelihood of 382.75 being reached.
The Cubes so far have exceeded my 312.29 target only slightly, but we should be prepared nonetheless for a resumption of the rally to the next logical Hidden Pivot, a 329.40 midpoint resistance that lies 5% above these levels. The pattern is not quite pretty enough, nor the point 'A' low distinctive enough, to make 329.40 a no-brainer spot to get short, but we can attempt it anyway with a small put position initiated with QQQ within a point or two from the target. The pattern looks appealing for getting long 'mechanically' at the green line, but we'd need quite a correction to make that possible. For now, continue to sit on the Feb 19 240/250/260 put butterfly spreads we acquired last week for a pittance. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:53 p.m.): With the S&P futures' downturn from a hair above my target, an important top today in this vehicle has become more plausible. Let's see what a couple of big-news days adds to the picture. ______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 11:05 p.m.): An important top at 312.29?? I must have been on drugs when I wrote that.
