NYBOT Dollar Index

Are there any hints that a weak dollar will help bullion make the turn higher?  So far, there's not much to go on.  Last Friday's run-up missed an 81.63 rally target by 0.29 points, and DXY has been in purgatory since.  The midpoint associated with the target lies at 80.60, and a close beneath that number today would be telegraphing weakness next week.  Please note, however, that a second midpoint resistance at 80.98 has already been busted, tipping the short-term bias moderately bullish.

The Dollar  Index is moving effortlessly above the 80.98 pivot that halted Tuesday's powerful rally, implying more upside over the near term to as high as 81.78.  A pullback from that number appears likely because of the precise pullback that has  already occurred at the C-D midpoint , so currency traders might look to get long the euro with a tight stop if and when the turn comes.

The Dollar Index topped a single tick above the 80.98 midpoint flagged in yesterday's tout.  If and when it gets by the resistance, look for a swift follow-through to exactly 81.87, the midpoint's 'D' sibling.

The last three weeks'  price action has turned an uptrend begun in mid-January to slop, but we can use a print at 80.74 to alert us to a potentially meaningful "booster" rally. Alternatively, a decisive breach of 80.24, a Hidden Pivot support, would be warning of weakness creeping into the short-term  picture. _______ UPDATE (10:51 a.m. EST):  DXY has tagged both of our numbers today, alerting us to the dollar's schizophrenia, if little else. The dominant trend remains bullish nonetheless and points to 81.78 over the near term. Midpoint resistance at 80.98 would have to be overcome first.

After having missed an 81.56 rally target by just 0.22 points, the Dollar Index has plunged by nearly a full point. The pullback would become bearishly impulsive on the hourly chart if it hits 80.18 today, but there's no point drawing any conclusions until that happens.  The decline has already exceeded 50% of the rally from last Wednesday's low, but support at 80.24, where 0.618 Fibo line comes into play, remains to be tested.

Just a little more upside will max out a pattern begun on Feb 3 from 78.68. The Hidden Pivot lies at 81.56, just 0.26 points above yesterday's spike high, and it can serve as our minimum upside projection for the near term. A decisive move through it intraday, or a close above it, would be hinting of more upside over the near term to as high as 83.33. That's the C-D midpoint of a pattern that looks compelling on the weekly chart.

The shadow of the decline from a well-advertised Hidden Pivot target at 80.78 continues to lengthen and could reach  79.21  today if f selling persists.  A key test of bears' resolve could come very soon at 79.55, a midpoint support that will remain valid as long as 79.90 has not been exceeded to the upside first.

Since topping Friday just a hair below an important Hidden Pivot target at 80.78, the Dollar Index has created a single bearish impulse leg on the intraday charts. It has yet to play out, but the implied target is 80.03. An easy breach of the support would imply still lower prices, but it would only take slippage to 79.96 to refresh the downtrend on the 15-minute chart.

The Dollar Index came within 0.10 points of reaching a longstanding target at 80.78 on Friday, and I'd be surprised if  this Hidden Pivot fails to contain the rally for at least a week or two, if not significantly longer. The resistance is not chopped liver, as we sometimes like to say, and if it were to be easily swept aside, it would be warning dollar bears to dive for cover.