QQQQ

We hold two May 54 puts with a cost basis that has been reduced to 0.28 after a swoon to 55.32 a week ago allowed us to close out half of the position for a gain of 0.18 (or so) per option.  We'll let 'em ride for now, since risk on this 15-to-1 horse is minimal.

We bought four May 54 puts a while back @ 0.46. They are obviously a longshot bet -- nearly all owned (as opposed to shorted) puts have been losers since they were first listed in 1973 -- but from this point forward in our trading lives, we should always own a few puts just in case. We will also want to take partial profits whenever a put moves our way.  Accordingly, I'll recommend selling two May 54 puts to close if the Cubes closely approach (i.e., within 10-12 cents) the 55.65 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown.

We hold four April 53 puts that we'll write off for a $148 trading loss.  It's time to replace them so that we can have a horse in the race for May expiration. Accordingly I'll suggest bidding 0.46 for four May 54 puts.

We hold four April 53 puts whose cost basis has been reduced to 0.37 by profit-taking on March 57 puts that we rolled at expiration. Since the most we can lose on the entire position is about $150, we can forget about it for a while.  But just in case, enter a good-till-canceled offer to short four April 50 puts for 0.40.  If successful, we'll have legged into a $3 vertical bear spread with no risk and $1200 of profit potential. Regarding the Cubes, the hourly chart will remain bearish until such time as 58.37 is exceeded to the upside.

We’re long a single March 57 put for a 0.12 credit, having missed a golden opportunity to exit it for 3.25 the other day.  No matter.  I'll suggest selling it on the opening and simultaneously buying four April 53 puts (which closed yesterday @ 1.03).  _______ UPDATE (11:52 a.m. EDT):  We sold the March 57 put @ 2.02 and bought four April 53 puts @ 0.84.  Imputing the 1.90 paper profit on the sale to the price of the Aprils gives us a cost basis of 0.37 for them.  Do nothing further for now. 

We're long a single March 57 put for a 0.12 credit, meaning we cannot lose no matter what happens.  The QQQs could go as high as 62.09 if they follow the same long-term abcd pattern as the Mini-Dow and Mini S&P, although that would imply a much more powerful last-gasp spike. Accordingly, we'll plan on buying eight April 60 puts, no stop, if the Cubes get within a nickel of 62.09.  We'll also look to buy four April 59 puts if the rally hits 59.78, a lesser Hidden Pivot target.  In this case, though, we'll stop ourselves out if the QQQs touch 59.93.  ________ UPDATE (March 16, 2:55 a.m.):  Since "easy" trades like this one are intended to help pay for your subscription, I'll recommend offering the put to close for $350, good-till-canceled. -

We hold a single February 57 put which owing to earlier profit-taking can do no worse than make us $12.  In fact, our paper gain is currently $124 with the put valued at 1.12.  We'll continue to hold this position, oblivious to the ups and downs of the QQQs, since we've earned the right to think we may finally have precisely caught the Mother of All Bear Rally Tops.  If you are a new subscriber who took this trade for cheap thrills, offer the put for $350 -- the price of a year's subscription -- good till canceled. From a technical standpoint Da Cubes look southbound to a minimum 56.63.  That's a Hidden Pivot midpoint, and if it's breached on a closing basis more weakness over the near term to as low as 55.21 would be implied.

We've already taken a partial profit on a short position initiated an inch off yesterday's high, so there is little risk even if the broad averages head higher (as they always seem to do).  Adjusted for the theoretical gain of 0.18 per contract that we realized by selling two March 57 puts intraday for 0.80,  our two remaining puts have a cost basis of 0.44. For now, plan on stopping yourself out if they touch 0.50, a price that would leave us with no actual loss even after commissions.  If the Cubes do get second wind and pop above yesterday's high, we'll plan on re-shorting the little s.o.b. at 60.36 by buying four April 60 monthly puts. (They settled yesterday at 2.76.)  The target pattern, clear as day on the weekly chart, is shown in the inset.  _______ UPDATE (10:37 a.m. EST):  The sneaky little s.o.b. head-faked on an opening-bar gap to 58.02, but the puts went no lower than 0.55, so we remain long two of them.  Close out one, good-till-canceled, if they should touch 1.00. If successful, we'll own a free put (or multiple thereof, depending on how many puts you bought initially) with zero risk. _______FURTHER UPDATE: The puts hit 1.00 around 1:30 p.m. and have since slid back to 0.94 after topping at 1.02.  We now have a single contract remaining for each set of four originally purchased. The profit-adjusted cost basis of our position amounts to a 0.12 CREDIT, implying a $12 gain and no loss possible even after adjusting for commissions.  We'll simply forget about this one until it's time to roll into the April contract, assuming we get the chance. In the exaggeration-prone and oft-disingenuous world of direct mail marketing, our profit might be headlined as representing a "SENSATIONAL 20,000% ANNUALIZED GAIN!!!!!!!!!"

A rally target at 57.96 remains valid, so we'll look to short it by buying four March 57 puts. You can determine their fair price by monitoring the bid/asked spread as the QQQs closely approach the target.  A stop-loss at 58.12 is still advised. ______ UPDATE (9:36 a.m. EST): We bought the puts for 0.62.  Stick to the 58.12 stop-loss for now.  ________ FURTHER UPDATE (2:05 p.m. EST): Sell for 0.80 or better two of the four puts acquired earlier this morning for 0.62.  We'll carry the two that remain using 0.44 as our new cost basis.