SIK12

We shouldn't allow ourselves to be seduced by Friday's rally, since the larger downtrend had crushed a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 31.680 with ease a day earlier (see inset).  Camouflageurs can attempt to get short near 33.385, the lower green line where a short to 30.270 was initially signaled. However, the hourly chart would swing back to bullish if buyers can push this vehicle above 32.495 today. The importance of that number is also shown in the chart.

A Hidden Pivot target at 31.230 evinced little support, shortening the odds of more weakness down to at least 29.355, a key Hidden Pivot support noted here earlier. On the way south, the futures will likely have one more chance to turn around -- at 30.270, the 'D' target of the pattern shown. Its p sibling at 31.680 got crushed yesterday, so the burden of proof will be on bulls as the week draws to a close.  Night owls looking to 'camo' their way short should note that tonight's rally has come up to the exact p midpoint of the bearish pattern shown.

Last Wednesday's decisive breach of a 31.950 'D' target implies that a lower one at 31.230 is now in play, and thence an even more important one at 29.355 noted here earlier. The short-entry trigger (aka 'X') associated with that last downside Hidden Pivot lies not far above, at 33.170, and is therefore a logical place to try to get short, albeit belatedly. The trade, if it comes, should be attempted only via camouflage.  Alternatively, bulls would need to hit 33.285 today to show a pulse.

A Hidden Pivot at 31.230 remains our minimum downside objective, and it would take nothing less than a surge above 34.380 to turn the intermediate-term outlook back to bullish. Moreover, a two-day closed beneath 31.230 would put into play the 29.355 target noted here yesterday.  Look on the somewhat bright side, yesterday's thrust was weakly impulsive on the hourly chart -- "weakly" because it surpassed no true 'external' highs -- and projects to 33.390 via a 32.910 midpoint resistance that lies just two ticks above yesterday's high. From our Hidden Pivot perspective, the most bullish thing that could happen today would be an unpaused thrust that exceeds external peaks #1 and #2.

As implied her yesterday, a Hidden Pivot at 31.230 is now our minimum downside objective, and it would take nothing less than an explosive move exceeding 34.380 to the upside to annul that decree. Bottom-fishing is recommended to anyone who can hold risk to $70 or less per contract, presumably via camouflage, but my hunch is that there will be a tradable bounce from within no more than 2.5 cents of the target. You should be aware in any case that a two-day closed beneath 31.230 would put into play the 29.355 target of the pattern shown.  Notice that, unlike the larger downtrending A-B pattern shown in today's charts for April Gold, this one's A-B leg is the real deal -- i.e., not sausage because it exceeded the 32.715 'external' low recorded on February 16.  Indeed, it is because Silver's chart is so clear in this respect that I have given my worst-case forecast for gold the benefit of the small doubt.

The bearish target at 31.230 (see inset) will become our minimum downside objective if and when its p sibling at 32.835 fails as support.  The latter number will nonetheless be an appealing place for aggressive bottom-fishing, provided traders can limit entry risk per contract to no more than $70  theoretical. 

The futures have ratched timidly higher in night trading, achieving a largely unimpeded gain of about 25 cents. However, the move was stalled shortly after midnight due to the presence of real resistance at 33.900 where an important peak was recorded earlier in the day on the way down. Night owls and camouflageurs should note the presence of two lesser 'external' peaks that lie, respectively, 2 cents and 5.5 cents below it, since a small pullback from just above either could set-up a low-risk entry opportunity.  I have sketched this hypothetically on the chart for your further guidance. Would you like to learn how we use the ‘camouflage’ trading technique to significantly reduce entry risk? Click here for details.

A midpoint pivot at 33.825 (see inset) has been central to corrective action over the last two days; now, it appears to be a base for the consolidation of Friday's impulsive thrust. No point 'C' low exists yet, but if the 34.030 low shown endures (unlikely, I'd say), the next buying spree could take this vehicle as high as 35.33.  Night owls should be ready for a sneak attack if the 'X' of a bullish pattern should trigger, since my hunch is that there won't be much time to get on board. Under the circumstances, a "timed" buy-stop may be the best way to do it.  Alternatively, if Silver should unexpectedly turn weak, the first place where we might look for a bounce is from 33.280, a midpoint support that could be bottom-fished via 'camouflage'

Back-to-back impulse legs on the intraday charts suggest that bulls are quietly building strength for an attempt at recouping Tuesday's big loss.  My immediate upside target is 33.550 (30m, A=32.860 on 3/7 at 11 a.m.; B=33.510, C=33.225). A thrust to that Hidden Pivot looked like no worse than an even-odds bet Wednesday night because its midpoint sibling at 33.550 has already been exceeded by six cents. Even so, it wouldn't take much from here to create a minor, bearish countertrend.  A print at 33.330 would suffice (30m, a=33.480 at 8:30), and completion to the 'd' target of the pattern would have bearish implications for the near term