Silver

The futures tripped a reverse-pattern buy signal Thursday night and then went blotto on Friday, unable to poke above the green line for more than a few minutes after three tries. There was no reason to hold a position over the weekend, but if you did anyway please let me know so that I can decide whether to provide a tracking position. Usually when a clear signal like this one produces...nada, it means the dominant trend -- in this case down -- will continue. Since I don't have a crystal ball to predict how this mud-dog will open Sunday night, I will wait for it to instruct me. If I had to guess, I'd say traders will scare themselves to death with a gratuitous feint beneath C= 23.13, paving the way for a weak bounce that will not likely be tradeable unless we're glued to the 3-minute chart.

Last week's top occurred an inch from the 25.34 target of a reverse pattern stretching back to July, so I've lowered its point A to June's bottom to produce a new, somewhat higher rally target at 25.74. A further drop to p=24.16, or to x=23.37 could cue up a 'mechanical' buying opportunity, although the latter would be somewhat less risky. The stop-loss for a bid placed at the higher level would be at 23.63, but check for timely guidance in the chat room, since we may be able to cut risk significantly. The predicted move to at least D=25.74 comes with high confidence, given the easy penetration of p=24.16 on the way up. _______ UPDATE (Sep 6, 6:41 p.m.): Now that the futures have come down to the green line (x=23.27), you can use a trigger interval of 28 cents to get long. That implies entry risk of about $1400 per contract, so the trade is advised only for subscribers who can locate the trigger pattern. Based on Wednesday's low at 23.31, the buy signal would come at 23.595, with a partial- profit-taking exit at p=23.875.

September Silver became a 'mechanical' short in theory with last week's run-up to the green line (x=24.403), but it looked too revved up as the week ended for the trade to be enticing. My gut feeling is that the futures will hit the red line (p=23.33) first, even if they eventually stop out the short, but we'll look for low-risk opportunities to test this theory rather than trade with a bias. If bears lose this round, that could signal a run-up to as high as 28.48 over the next 5-7 weeks (daily, A= 20.42 o 3-10).

What a mess! Even so, the pattern shown in the chart meets our criteria for accuracy and reliability in subtle ways, so let's assume the cycle of hard-selling begun from 25.47 a month ago is headed down to at least D=21.18. In the meantime, we should be alert to shorting opportunities if last week's so-far weak bounce gets legs. A run-up to p=23.33 would trigger a relatively risky 'mechanical' short, stop 24.04, but there may easier ways to do it, so stay tuned to the chat room for timely guidance. ______ UPDATE (Aug 21, 9:29 a.m.): A subscriber reported shorting silver based on the above. My response n the chat room, for your guidance, was as follows:  "My target missed the top of the nasty spike by 0.03, but I hadn't expected it to be reached so dramatically. Is your stop at 24.04, the number in the tout? That implies 72 cents of theoretical entry risk. However, you could have cut that to 11 cents using an rABC set-up that triggered at 23.25, with 23.15 as the threshold for partial-profit-taking (15m, a=23.07 on 8/17." D=22.93).  _______ UPDATE (2:49 p.m.): The futures bottomed an inch from the 22.93 target I provided in the chat room, generating a profit of as much as $2,000 per contract for shorts from 34.33. Shorts covered near 22.93, then reversed and turned into long positions, could have made an additional $2,000 per contract, since the bounce took Sep Silver all the way back up to the intraday high. All the swings were gratuitous and orchestrated by thieves, but as I hope as has been demonstrated, such movement is perfectly predictable and easily tradeable.

The chart projects a correction to as low as 21.39 of the big bull move begun in March from 20.42. Since the initial downside penetration of p=23.43 earlier this month was not especially dramatic, however, we should be alert to a possibly significant upturn without D having been reached.  There is a chance it began Friday, since the bounce from an intraday low began at a voodoo number that should have jumped out at advanced Pivoteers. If the futures relapse as the week begins, look here and in the chat room for an update that could be tradeable.

Although silver has grazed over a nearly $12 range for the last two years, it prefers to hang out near the $24 midpoint. To be sure, it is in a bull market with the potential to reach $36 or higher. But it seems in no hurry to get there, and it will likely remain an accumulation opportunity between 17 and 23 for the foreseeable future. A breakout would be signaled at  27.36, a tick above an important 'external' peak recorded by the September contract in March 2022.  More immediately, a reverse pattern promises good odds for bottom-fishing at 22.98. That is the 'd' target of a= 24.83 on June 9. _______ UPDATE (Aug 8, 9:49 p.m.): Sellers bombed the 22.98 Hidden Pivot support, implying Sep Silver is likely to grope its way down to June's 22.34 low in search of support.

I rarely display a chart with two patterns, but in this case, both have been working well enough to provide a handhold for trades in either direction. The 24.22 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the smaller, downtrending pattern caught a tradeable low on Friday almost precisely and would signal a 'mechanical' short if the futures were to touch x=24.85 (stop 25.48), as the new week begins. There's $12,600 0f theoretical entry risk on four contracts, so this one is intended only for subscribers who have mastered 'camo' set-ups. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 7:05 a.m.): Only one subscriber mentioned having done the trade, so I did not establish a tracking position. The short from the green line is still 'live', however, and has produced a profit so far of $3150 for each contract covered at the red line. Typically, I advise covering half of any position there, or of implementing an 'impulsive' stop-loss if just a single contract is held.

A short from the red line (p=25.45) could have been worth as much as $14,000 by week's end on four contracts, although no one mentioned having done the trade, so I didn't track it. Now, draw a reverse pattern on the weekly chart using A=24.83 on 6/9, and you'll see why p=24.228 can be used as a minimum downside projection for the near term (and 22.98 as a worst case). It can also be used to bottom-fish with a 'reverse-pattern' trigger. If silver surprises and closes above last week's 24.47 high, that would put the 28.56 target in play. _____  UPDATE (Jul 27, 7:20 p.m.): Silver did in fact plunge today to within an inch of the 24.22 midpoint Hidden Pivot where I'd suggested bottom-fishing (see above), but I won't provide tracking guidance unless I hear from at least two subscribers who traded on my guidance.

Silver will not be able to avoid telling us what is on its tiny, fevered brain when it connects soon with the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 25.45.  If buyers pulverize it, that would shorten the odds of a further move to as high as 28.56, that pattern's D target. There will likely be good opportunities to trade with and against the trend on the way up, so if you trade this vehicle or an ETF equivalent, stay closely tuned to my tout updates and the chat room. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 11:55 p.m.): A reverse-pattern short from the red line could have produced a quick profit of as much as $1100 per contract (60-min, a=25.30 at 6:00 a.m.). The fact that the futures ended the day above our 'c' plant says they are going higher. _______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 12:15 a.m.): Thursday's fright-wig selloff may be the start of the real thing, since it generated a persuasive impulse leg on the hourly chart.