SIZ23 – December Silver (Last:23.38)

Silver finished the week on an upstroke, but the pattern that produced it may be too obvious to sustain the steep trajectory. The low occurred just a tick or two beneath mid-August’s 22.58 bottom, implying the turnaround was just bulls and bears scaring themselves into action. That’s nearly always good for a pop, since the former were stopped out and no longer on board to slow down the rally. The pattern should work for bottom-fishing a swoon to the green line (x=22.83) ‘mechanically’, but we won’t be able to judge buyers’ enthusiasm until such time as they interact with the 23.67 target of the rABC pattern. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20, 8:41 p.m.): Here’s a mildly bullish chart to help you leverage Silver’s churlishness.  Because today’s nasty reversal did not quite reach the red line on the upswing, I cannot recommend a ‘mechanical’ buy if its fall hits the green line.