Although Silver broke out around mid-morning on Friday, it spent the remainder of the session idling in a shallow pullback. This behavior reflects the preference of strong, confident buyers who could use a little rest. The quiet end to the week was deceptive, since it featured a decisive push through a 58.45 midpoint Hidden Pivot associated with a 'D' target at 70.81. (Please note that this number was incorrectly given here last week for the January contract as 63.39). A pullback to the green line (x=52.27), however unlikely, would be a screaming 'mechanical' buy. Here's a chart showing the futures' crucial progress last week.
You could back up the truck and buy 'em at 46.16 the 'd' target of the pattern shown, although there are no assurances the futures will get there. Odds are somewhat in favor of it, since the pattern has already produced three theoretically profitable trades: a conventional short at the green line, a mechanical short on the rally back up to it, and a buy at 48.224, the secondary Hidden Pivot support. It would take a rally exceeding the 52.245 peak from November 19, for bulls kick-start the long-term uptrend. _____ UPDATE (Nov 28, 12:15 p.m. EST): Silver has exploded this morning and is currently up $3.01/oz, trading well above a would-be daunting Hidden Pivot resistance at 56.05 (basis the January contract). The next HP of consequence is 57.61, which can serve as a minimum price objective for now. If it is decisively exceeded, that would imply further potential to 63.50, or even 69.40. Both targets come from the weekly chart of the January contract, where A= 30.27 on 4/4/25.
Friday's bombed-out low pierced the red line (p=50.28) by enough to make any upward progress to the green line (x=52.35) a tempting 'mechanical' short sale. That implies that once the fledgling downtrend gets rolling, it will fall to at least p2=48.22 in search of a foothold. Since we always want to allow for an alternative outcome, the most bullish possibility would be a rally exceeding 53.375, Friday's intraday high, before the futures can plummet anew. It could begin from any low that doesn't exceed the secondary Hidden Pivot support at 48.22. You can play for a bounce from there, provided you know what you're doing.
I've shifted to a bigger picture that aligns with gold's, where indecision rules. Bulls have been stymied so far by a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 49.043 that precisely contained the last big bounce. Now, they've got a running start to attempt once again to smash through. A success would put d=52.575 in play. There's little point in trying to predict the outcome, but if the futures pop through p and then return to the green line (x=47.276), we should be prepared to bottom-fish there aggressively with a small-pattern trigger. Alternatively, a breach of C=45.510 would be bearish, although not necessarily fatal. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 1:14 p.m. EST): The futures have broken out today, impaling p=49.043 with sufficient brio to get them to d=52.575 eventually. Be careful up there, since this Hidden Pivot resistance does not look like it will surrender quietly. There are significantly higher targets outstanding, so stay tuned for Sunday's updates.
Silver is close to aborting a 'mechanical' sell signal that triggered last Tuesday with a rally back to the green line (x=47.96). If buyers can pop it above C=49.225, negating the pattern, it would be a constructive way to start the week. The first Hidden Pivot resistance they would encounter above it lies at 50.030, a minor 'D' target associated with the 45,510 low recorded on October 28. Short there only if you've caught a profitable piece of the approximately $1.75 ride north that remains between Friday's closing price and the target.
The chart replicates the bullish pattern shown this week for gold (see above), although silver has yet to deliver any winning trades. Near-misses were another story, however, since the pattern would have yielded a theoretical $12,540 gain on a single contract if Thursday's 49.225 high had been just a slightly higher 49.328. The second of the two trades that would have resulted would have been a 'long' at the green line (x-48.074) that would have shown a small profit at the bell on Friday. (For details, check out my 21:21 post in the chat room Thursday night.) Looking just ahead, I expect gold to pull silver higher when the week begins. That implies a push past p=49.328, followed by a run-up to at least p2=50.581, or to d=51.835 if any higher._______ UPDATE (Oct 27, 1:24 p.m.): This morning's plunge through the red line (p=46.650) means the downtrend is likely to continue to at least D=44.145. This is even though the pattern is a conventional one that every trader on Earth is aware of. A bounce up to the green line (x=47.903) should be shorted 'mechanically' with a small-pattern 'camo' trigger.
Silver signaled a potentially significant reversal Thursday night at the same time as gold, although I did not put out an additional trade recommendation in the wee hours as I did with Gold futures and GDXJ. Both overshot Hidden Pivot correction targets on Friday, Silver by enough to make it a short-term prospect for shorting. Do so gingerly, using the 50.945 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of the pattern shown. You can pare the theoretical entry risk by at least 90% by using a reverse-trigger pattern fashioned from a chart of minute degree. I have explained this tactic many times, but if you are unfamiliar with my instructions, don't do the trade. You could attempt the short at d=52.230 as well. Whatever happens, buyers' progress through the Hidden Pivot levels shown on the chart can tell us much about whether the short-to-intermediate trend may have shifted to bearish. Please note that the Big Picture remains insanely bullish, and I mean that literally, since London deliveries reportedly are caught in a potentially fatal squeeze. A chronic shortage of 'physical' has persisted for years, and I am not sure why it took so long to blow up in the greedy faces of the white-collar carnies who run the game. Until now, it has been easy for them to borrow bullion for next to nothing, and to substitute 'paper' silver (and gold) whenever it suits them. Now they are on the ropes, realizing that Trump's free-market team is not about to rescue them. Perhaps their lucrative scheme is about to be undone by a bull market, much as a bear market undid Bernie Madoff's fraud. ______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 12:50 a.m.): The futures have bounced tentatively after plummeting 13% to support on the right side of a garden-variety head-and-shoulders pattern begun in early October.
A short squeeze on Silver in the London market has pushed quotes easily past a Hidden Pivot target at 50.955 that had seemed ambitious less than a week ago. This has put the December contract on course for additional gains up to D=55.185 over the near term. Judging from the way buyers fist-pumped through the midpoint 'hidden' resistance at 50.943, they are no worse than an 80% shot to achieve D sometime soon. In the somewhat unlikely event of a felicitous swoon over the next 3-5 days, belated buyers should position themselves with a 'mechanical' bid at x=48.820, stop 46.695. ______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 10:35 a.m.): The fresh tout I put out last night at 10:20 p.m. (see above), nailed a quick, easy profit of $10,600 per contract. This graph shows how December Silver swooned overnight to a low at 48.75 that lay within 0.14% of the 'mechanical' bid I'd suggested. This means you would have endured no more than $350 of adversity to capture a gain of $10,600 (or an additional $3,300, for a total of $14,200, if you held out for the actual, overnight high at 51.160 that occurred somewhat above the red line). The 55.185 rally target remains valid as a minimum upside objective for the next two weeks.
The 49.835 target I'd billboarded here caught a nasty top within millimeters, allowing subscribers to get defensive just ahead of a $3.26 downdraft. Now, use the pattern shown to keep in step. It signaled no fewer than three trades on Friday: short at the green line; long on the reversal from the red line (p=46.988), and 'mechanically' short again at x=47.804. That last trade has yet to touch 46.966, where half the short could be covered, and there is no assurance the position will be a winner. Indeed, if bulls seize the advantage as the week begins, they will likely negate the pattern with a very bullish push above C=48.620. Thereafter, use this pattern, with midpoint resistance at 48.828 and a 'D' target at 50.955. Don't pass up an opportunity to buy 'mechanically' if the futures pull back to x after a run-up to our sweet spot.
The 53.05 target shown is the highest that can be projected for Silver on a long-term chart. It is unlikely to work precisely, since the chart is a blend of different contract months, and because the pattern itself will be too obvious to too many. Even so, the target is sufficiently compelling to suggest the Comex price will either top somewhere near there, or stall on the way to still greater heights. We can use 53.05 as a minimum objective in any event, since that stab through p2, the secondary pivot, left little doubt about the feistiness of silver bulls. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3): Assuming today's top at 48.325 endures for a day or two, try bottom-fishing with a tightly stopped bid at 47.175, a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot support. An easy breach would portend more slippage to as low as 46.025. ________ UPDATE (Oct 6, 12:08 p.m. EDT): The pullback got no lower than 47.685 before silver took off again. The closest Hidden Pivot 'D target you can use for a minimum objective for the next couple of days is 49.835.
