Silver

July Silver has been on a buy signal since March 4, when it pulled back to the green line (see inset) after vaulting the 28.62 midpoint resistance with a meter to spare. That made a further push to D=35.02 an odds-on bet, even if it has taken three months to return to the midpoint pivot where partial profits were in order. Now we should want to see the futures close for two consecutive days above  the red line (28.62) before inferring that silver has launched for an ascent toat least p2=31.82.  We'll trade the move using 'reverse abc' patterns and 'camouflage' on the intraday charts, so stay tuned to the Trading Room if you want in.

A Hidden Pivot at 31.51 has served as our minimum upside target for the intermediate term, with a larger-degree target at 35.02 looming above it. Since July Silver has been too strong to swoon to a 'mechanical' bid on the bigger charts, here's a smaller one that projects to 29.25 that you can use to get long 'mechanically'.  The futures already tripped a buy related to this pattern when they pulled back to the green line (27.76) last week, but they would do so again by retracing to p=28.25 after trading up into the range 28.75 - 28.85. _______ UPDATE (June 1, 2:50 p.m.): Anyone aboard?  The trade did not trigger in the way I'd described, but if you did it anyway, use a 27.91 stop and a 29.24 target.  ______ UPDATE (June 1, 10:43 p.m.): The trade was stopped out, but a second trade that is more appealing would trigger at x=27.76 (shown in this chart).  Initial risk on four contracts would be $10,000, so the trade is recommended only to subscribers who either know how to cut that down to $2,000 or less using 'camouflage' or an 'rabc' entry trigger; or to those who have made significantly more than $10,000 from my previous recommendations in silver/gold futures. _______ UPDATE (Jun 2, 8:28 a.m.): The overnight low occurred at x=27.765 exactly, triggering the trade. The futures have since bounced as high as 28.07, generating a paper profit of a little more than $6000 on four contracts. Exit half of the position now. ______ UPDATE (Jun 2, 11:29 p.m.): Several subscribers reported doing the trade, which is currently showing a theoretical profit of about $2800 per contract with July Silver at 28.330.  With a perfectly timed entry to fill your sails, you're on you're own now, shooting for the 29.24 target noted

Although the bullish pattern shown is very different from gold's, it has the same encouraging energy and vitality. Its 31.51 target looks very do-able, and although we have a higher one at 35.02, this lesser pattern should suit us better for the near term. That means a pullback to x=25.718, however unlikely, would offer an excellent opportunity to get long in order to augment a bullish position or perhaps initiate a new one.  More immediately, the robustly impulsive ABC pattern begun from 26.78 on 5/13 could prove useful for setting up an entry trigger on charts of lesser degree. Stay tuned to the chat room, and don't hesitate to make your interest known, even if you are new to Rick's Picks. Crowdsourcing is encouraged as always.

We've got rally targets as high as 35.02, but for now we'll use the pattern shown, with a 28.54 objective, to get a confident handle on risk management and entry tactics along the way. The ABCD here is similar to the one I've featured in gold, although Silver came to rest last week just beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 27.66 equivalent to one gold bulls were head-butting at the bell. Once past it, expect the futures to move easily toward 28.54. As always, a decisive push past it, especially on first contact, would imply the uptrend is likely to continue. _______ UPDATE (May 18, 7:32 a.m.): The July futures hit 28.54 as expected, then blew past it. Shifting the 'A' low downward yielded a somewhat higher at 28.93 to max out the minor cycle, but that target too was reached overnight. Silver has certainly earned a rest of perhaps 3-5 days, but if it blasts higher quickly after a shallow correction, here is the pattern that will be in play, with a 31.65 target. I have very high confidence in the target, but also in the pattern itself for purposes of generating 'mechanical' (or other) signals to trade the levels. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 10:17 p.m.): As implied above, a pullback to the green line (x=28.858) would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' buy, stop 23.91.  Since entry risk would be more than $9700 per contract, we would need to create a 'camouflage' trigger to do the trade and reduce this by a much as 95% theoretical. If you care, make it known in the trading room if 25.858 is closely approached. Just to keep score, I will establish a tracking position regardless of whether subscribers are on board.

Silver's chart is pulsating with bullish possibilities well above the 28.945 target we've been using for the last couple of weeks. The target comes from a 'reverse ABC' pattern that began with a 24.85 low recorded on January 27.  I've added a much larger pattern begun last June from 18.04 that yields a far more ambitious target at 35.02(!) Although an ascent to this number cannot yet be 'guaranteed', it is encouraging that the futures are approaching the 28.62 midpoint Hidden Pivot where 'mechanical' buyers at x=25.42 on March 4 would be able to book a solid partial profit. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 11:20 p.m.):  The fraudsters may be able to hold silver down for a little while and even pummel it on some days, but whom do they think they're fooling? Certainly not us.

Comex Silver has turned wishy-washy after a promising rally that lasted for nearly the entire month of April. The good news is that before buyers went into hibernation two weeks ago, they pushed the July contract slightly above an 'external peak at 26.755 recorded on March 18.  That added promise to the 'reverse' C-D follow-through leg shown in the chart and turned the reverse pattern itself into a decent platform for getting long to a 28.945 target. One way to do this would be with a bid at x=25.075, the green line, with a stop-loss at 23.780 just below the green line. That would risk about $6,500 per contract, but in practice, to reduce that by as much as 95%, we would craft an entry trigger using 'camouflage' or a small-degree rABC. If you trade this vehicle and know your ABCs, be prepared to show your stuff in the chat room, where crowdsourcing is always welcome.

The encouraging look of Silver's chart may be all that is keeping Gold from doing what it does best every now and then -- i.e., ripping those who love it most a new orifice.  The pattern shown gives silver bulls running room up to as high as 29.00 over the next 3-4 weeks. It also looks well formed for purposes of initiating 'mechanical' buys along the way. I've sketched a hypothetical example of a trade we should jump on if the May futures gift us with a pullback to the green line (x=25.05).  The position would require a stop-loss at 23.73, implying initial risk of about $6,600 per contract.  We'd need to cut that down to $600 or less to make it worth our while, so please join the crowdsourcing effort in the chat room at the appropriate time if you're keen to play.  ______ UPDATE (Apr 29, 10:26 p.m.): Silver has been barely strong enough to keep its snout above water, never mind pull gold higher.  It needs to launch a flight of fancy, and soon. 

With Friday's stall very precisely at p=26.37, we are about to find out what this rally, now in its third week, is made of.  A decisive push past this midpoint Hidden Pivot, especially with a close above it, would signal an imminent ascent to the 29.00 target (inset). For reasons that are technically too involved to get into, let me say that the rally pattern is quite fetching, implying that any 'mechanical' trigger signaled is likely to yield a profit. Risk is another matter, however, since the spacing between entry levels implies initial theoretical risk of $6600 per contract. We can work with it in real time, most effectively in crowdsource mode, so please signal your interest at appropriate times. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:13 p.m. ET):  Burn, baby, burn! The May contract popped through p=26.37 with such brio that it is now and odds-on bet to achieve a minimum 29.00 in this bull cycle, which began from 23.74 on March 31. (And congratulations to 'Farmer', who not only nailed the low to-the-day, but provided a high-decibel heads-up in the Rick's Picks chat room when the futures were bottoming out.) The pattern we've been using promises to work well for 'mechanical' entries on the way up, so stay tuned. _____ UPDATE (Apr 22, 10:14 p.m.): Well, okay, I jumped the gun. Let's stipulate that the futures close above p=26.37 for two straight days before we break out the Rondel Brut bubbly.

Last week's moderate uptrend has improved the look of the 'reverse' pattern given here earlier -- so much so that it promises to be a money-maker for months to come. That implies that May Silver has a good chance of reaching the 29.00 target, but even if not, 'mechanical' trades from x, p or even p2 will benefit from the clarity of this picture. D=29.00 is now in play theoretically, but we'll use p=26.37 as a minimum upside objective for now. If there is sufficient interest in the chat room, I'll provide intraday guidance to squeeze off a low-risk trade intraday. Otherwise, Pivoteers are encouraged to dive in at will, using 'reverse ABC set-ups and 'mechanical' triggers on the lesser charts to squash entry risk. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 8:32 p.m. ET): See my 13:28 post in the chat room, which in response to a question belatedly offered up this rABC set-up as the sort of opportunity we should look for to test the water with very tightly controlled entry risk.