Silver

The 23.24 correction target we've been using will have to do, even though the A-B impulse leg that produced it did not exceed any 'external' lows. That makes it 'sausage', and therefore less useful for projecting tradeable turning points. A low at the target would fall well within the exhaustingly tedious corrective band that has formed since last August's 30.59 high. To be sure,, the big picture is bullish, albeit stagnant in part because so much speculative energy has been diverted into bitcoin.  If and when the May contract dips to 23.24, we can bottom-fish rABC-style using A= 25.42 (3/12). _______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 9:05 a.m. ET): The futures have breached p2, putting a D target at 23.28 in play. The pattern used to produce this target has been adjusted somewhat from the earlier one associated with 23.24.

May Silver is on a 'mechanical' buy signal triggered on March 4, but it has been in no hurry to reach the red line, a midpoint pivot where partial profit-taking would be in order. Although I did not recommend the trade because of its implied $15,000 entry risk, I left the door open to jumping aboard above the 'official' entry price using a pattern of lesser degree. So far, nothing appealing has come along. The only reason silver looks more bullish than gold on the chart is because of the three-day skew caused by Reddit/Robinhoodies when they briefly attempted to short-squeeze the futures. Their foolishness brought short-lived exhilaration, but we shouldn't expect them to try it again any time soon. ______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 11:46 p.m.) May Silver has returned to the green line, tripping a second 'mechanical' buy tied to the 34.55 target given here earlier.  I don't trust it, but we can still attempt to get long somewhat lower using a 'reverse ABC' pattern like the one shown in this chart. [Note: The 'D' target has been corrected Thursday morning to 23.24.]   If you're interested, stay tuned to the chat room for possible guidance in real-time.

May Silver is on a buy signal triggered March 4, when the futures touched the green line (see inset) after having popped ever-so-briefly above the red one a month earlier.  The price spike was caused by an effusion of Reddit/Robinhoodie hubris; however, the short squeeze they'd intended did not get very far. In retrospect, it is clear that they misjudged the heft of commodity silver as well as the fact that bullion's lazy bull market is on its own schedule and cannot be hastened with mere talk. Given the artificial nature of the February 1 spike, I suggested paper-trading the 'mechanical' buy when it triggered at 25.12. The position required a stop-loss just below C=21.99, implying initial risk of more than $15,000 per contract. In any event, the trade would be a winner if the futures reach p=28.27 without having dipped first below C=21.99. I have my doubts this will occur because a recalcitrant gold has been exerting downward pull on silver, but we should keep an open mind in any event. A two-day close above p=28.275 would indicate bulls have regained their mojo and are capable of pushing this vehicle to D=34.55.

Silver's chart is bullishly out-of-whack with gold's at the moment, having tripped a very promising mechanical buy signal last week with a sharp drop to x=25.12.  Gold looks like it has farther to fall, but I doubt it will proceed far enough to cause May Silver to stop out this trade with a dip below 21.99.  Even so, I am not recommending a conventional limit bid at x, since the implied entry risk would be more than $15,000 per contract. We'll paper-trade until the discrepancy between the two metals is resolved, presumably in a way that is bullish for both. ______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 4:36 p.m. EST): The paper trade is off and running. I'll be interested to see whether it gets to p=28.27, where we would ordinarily exit half of the position. Maximum upside for this ancient pattern is 34.55, a target that has been in play theoretically since December 16.

There are no glow-in-the-dark correction targets in Silver's chart that correspond to the one I've suggested bottom-fishing in gold. The secondary pivot at 25.89 can be used to attempt it, but I'd suggest doing so only with an rABC set-up capable of significantly reducing the entry risk.  If you use the 27.41 low recorded on February 24 as point 'A', the implied initial risk would be a tad less than $1000 per contract, a bit rich for my taste.  Your best bet, more labor-intensive, for cutting that to $150 or so would be to use a camouflage set-up once p2=25.89 has been touched. _____ UPDATE (Mar 3, 5:54 p.m. EST): Use the 25.03 target shown in this chart as a minimum downside target and a place to bottom-fish if support at p2=25.89 fails.  The secondary pivot has already produced a robust bounce, but buying there (25.89) on a second re-rest is not advised. 

Silver spent a second consecutive week confounding bulls and bears alike, apparently in no hurry to resolve the bullish pattern shown. It nearly got negated by a phony swoon last Thursday evening, but the selling stopped just shy of the pattern's point 'C' low at 25.93. The shortfall will task bears when the new week begins, since the spike rebound generated a modest impulse leg on the hourly chart. The midpoint pivot at 28.66 can serve for now as a minimum upside objective, but it'll take a two-day close above it to imply that a finishing stroke to D=31.39 is likely. _______ UPDATE (Feb 24, 7:03 p.m. EST): Price action has been quite tedious, albeit within the context of a bullish channel in a bull market. Strip out the gratuitous Reddit/Robinhoodie spasm from three weeks ago and it grows even more tedious. The pattern projects to 31.39, as noted above, but the target won't be a "go" until such time as p=28.66 has been decisively exceeded.  Note: "Reading" price action at the midpoint Hidden Pivot is a key feature of my system. We can trade in and out of silver all day long, lowering the cost basis over time, but I'd prefer to do it with HP tactics that lower the entry risk to perhaps $150-$200 per contract rather than the $1000 that's possible when SI swings $2, as it has already done once in the C-D leg begun on 2/4.

March Silver remains on track to achieve the 34.67 target shown. The chart looks more bullish than gold's, but we needn't overly concern ourselves with this, since eventually they will get back in line. My gut feeling is that silver will turn less bullish to accomplish this rather than gold turning more bullish. That's because the spike to $30 a few weeks ago brought on by youthful blusterers at Reddit quickly aborted when they ran out of juice and into reality. Even so, if the detumescence should continue down to the green line (25.11), the 'mechanical' buy I suggested there earlier would still be in force. The stop-loss would be at 21.92, just beneath the pattern's point 'C' low, but we'd be shooting for just a one-level ride to p=28.30, rather than a rocket ride all the way to D=34.67. ______ UPDATE (Feb 18, 9:48 p.m. EST): Silver has turned 'less bullish' (see above), but it still looks better than gold. I've projected at least somewhat lower prices for the latter, but let's see if the futures can hold above 25.935 top keep the short-term-bullish pattern projecting to 31.39 alive.

Although Silver got hit hard last week when an abortive Reddit squeeze ran out of steam, the plunge does not look particularly fearsome on the longer-term charts.  In fact, the April Comex contract would become an enticing if somewhat scary 'mechanical' buy if the pullback comes down to x= 23.11, the green line. I say scary because the implied entry risk, using a 21.92 stop-loss just beneath the pattern's point 'C' low, would be around $16,000 per contract.  This set-up rates a 7.7 in my book, meaning I believe it has a 77% percent chance of producing a profit. Regardless, if and when the opportunity to jump aboard should arise, tune to the chat room for guidance tied to a risk-averse 'camouflage' set-up.

Silver continues to outperform gold in subtle technical ways that are encouraging. On Friday, for instance, the March contract blew past a midpoint Hidden Pivot associated with a D target at 30.10. This implies the target is probably no worse than a 60% shot to be achieved. It also makes a pullback to the green line (x=25.55) an enticing spot for a 'mechanical' bid with a stop-loss at 24.03. (It may be possible to pare the entry risk by as much 90% using an rABC set-up, so stay tuned.) We might not be gifted with a nasty correction to x; regardless, price action in the chart supports a more bullish bias than we've allowed since late December. ______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 11:45 a.m. EST): Wowee! The strongest leap in 11 years has pushed the futures past my target, somewhat exceeding a revised target at 30.18 that I posted in the chat room. The ferocity with which the rally has impaled p=28.30 of a larger pattern is quite bullish and has raised the odds of more upside to at least D=34.675 to around 75%. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 9:31 p.m.): The pullback has further to go, presumably to at least 27.77, where it would fill a gap created by the powerful leap begun three days ago from 24.71. ____UPDATE (Feb 2, 6:08): The correction from the top of Monday's exuberant spike to 30.35 has been brutal, erasing nearly two thirds of the substantial gains achieved since last Wednesday.  Even so, because the spike impaled the 28.30 midpoint pivot, odds are still good that the 34.675 target will eventually be achieved with or without the support of the Reddit  crowd. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 9:46 p.m.):  The futures would  become a fetching 'mechanical' buy at x=25.11. I'd have to