Silver

Silver's chart is more bullish than gold's, since the December rally exceeded an important external peak. This will allow us to attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing at the 24.12 midpoint support shown in the chart, although we shouldn't count too heavily on it to turn the futures around. An rABC set-up on the hourly chart can be used to initiate the trade, so nudge me in the chat room if it triggers on Tuesday and you need guidance.  If the pivot is easily exceeded, that would imply additional downside over the near term to as low as D=22.25. _______ UPDATE (Jan 18, 11:46 a.m. EST): Silver's Whoopee Cushion bounce Sunday night off a 24.04 low could have been worth as much as $5000 per contract to anyone who used this somewhat unconventional rABC set-up. Shifting 'A' to the visually more obvious low at 24.73 would have produced a winner as well, yielding a slightly larger gain. If you're still aboard, caution is advised, since the rally, robust though it was, failed to generate an impulse leg on the intraday charts. That would require a print at 25.19, 17 cents above the so-far high. _______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 5:38 p.m.): The rally looks corrective, although a rally exceeding last Thursday's 25.99 peak would turn it impulsive. ______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 7:57 p.m.):  The plunge to the green line two weeks ago may have looked like a 'mechanical' buy, but I did not advise it because it came from a peak that fell just shy of p=28.30. Once decisively above this Hidden Pivot resistance, bulls would have a fighting chance of reaching 34.67.

To put Friday's gratuitous dive in perspective, it did not even erase the week's gains, much less generate an impulse leg of significant degree. The bull market begun in March remains visually intact, biding its time until a change in the headlines signals the kind of real trouble that could rekindle interest in bullion. In the meantime, the perception that Biden will try to one-up his predecessors, including Trump, with The Mother of All Stimulus Packages will at least keep bullion buoyant. This is notwithstanding the current climate of uncertainty, which has allowed the scumballs who manipulate silver prices for a living to create and briefly leverage the impression that the switch to Democrats will somehow be bad for gold and silver. Returning to the chart, the futures signaled theoretical upside to at least p=29.67 when they touched the green line in mid-October. Now buyers will need to hit p and pull back to the line to trip a 'mechanical' buy signal of significant degree. Fortunately, we're in no hurry for great opportunities to materialize. _______ UPDATE (Jan 14, 6:53 p.m.): Silver has looked slightly less fatigued than gold lately, which isn't saying much. The March contract tripped a theoretical buy signal predicated on the p=29.67 rally target given above, but that was  three months ago, and bullion has been in a dirge since, biding time.

The small bullish pattern at the rightmost edge of the chart projects to 29.02, but a much larger pattern begun from 17.62 in June is reinforcing it. The latter has a target at 34.67 with critical resistance at p=28.30. In the days ahead, the most bullish thing that could happen would be a two-day close above 27.03, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the small pattern tied to D=29.02. Stepping back for a look at the big picture, a two-day close above 28.03 would shorten the odds of a push eventually to 34.67.  In the meantime, the small pattern can be used to get long 'mechanically' on a pullback to the green line, x=26.04. However, I'd make the trade conditioned on the pullback coming from the 'sweet spot' around 27.65. _______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 11:21 p.m. EST):  The 'mechanical' set-up has continued to ripen and remains viable, bidding 26.04, stop 25.04. The opportunity is less than stellar because the A-B leg is not truly impulsive. However, if the futures were to fall sharply to the green line, that would improve the odds for a winner. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 9:18 a.m.): The little POS rallied 62 cents from within pennies of the x=26.04 line where I'd suggested placing a mechanical bid. This could have been worth as much as $2600 per contract overnight, but I assume the 26.09 low put it just out of reach. An rABC entry, which does not require contact with the green line, would have triggered at 26.29. That's with (on the 30-minute chart) A=26.70 on 1/6 at 11:30 a.m. I am not suggesting that the trade be re-entered if Silver relapses, so cancel the order.

March Silver's best day last week still fell shy of a technically important 'external' peak at 28.01 recorded back in mid-September. That means the larger rally begun nearly a month ago from 91.60 has been for naught, at least so far, since it failed to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart. It would be premature to write off this possibility, but even if it happens the result would be less bullish than if buyers had exceeded the benchmark on the first try. There's no urgency about trying to get aboard in the meantime, since it will take more of a correction to ease this task when the time comes.

Silver has pushed marginally above a three-month consolidation range, signaling minimum upside to a 26.66 target broached here earlier and shown in the chart. It is the terminus of a small, bullish pattern that has taken three weeks to play out. A move decisively exceeding the target would put the 28.30 midpoint Hidden Pivot of a much larger pattern in play. It is also shown in the chart and correlates with a D target at 34.67.  I expect the lower resistance to be tested, but notice how that would put the March contract slightly above a cluster of 'external' peaks recorded in September. The result would be an impulse leg of significant decree. Overall, the picture suggests that minor things are happening now that could easily turn into major things. _______ UPDATE (Dec 21, 6:30 p.m. EST): Bulls impaled the 26.66 pivot, putting p=28.30 in play as a minimum upside target for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 11:12 p.m.): Silver's two-day slide is more worrisome than gold's, hinting of more downside to at least p2=24.929, or d=24.300 if any lower.  Both are  correcting strong impulse legs, however, so bulls should be given the benefit of the doubt for now. ______ UPDATE (Dec 23, 9:30 p.m.):  Midgets duked it out with no clear winner, although the good guys were able to turn the futures higher from well above 24.92 benchmark cited above. This is faintly encouraging, but I wouldn't hazard much more than that predictively. However, a decisive thrust above 26.28 would hint of a break in the tedium.

The 24.78 rally target we used last week is still in play, but the futures may have done too much consolidating over the last several days to suggest they will be satisfied with a mere 53-cent move above Friday's close. If they pop above it we can use a larger, far more ambitious pattern that projects to as high as 34.67. First the futures would need to achieve p=28.30, a minimum upside projection that became viable on this chart back on October 9. The futures have not tripped any opportune 'mechanical' buying signals in a long while, but for now we'll take the optimistic view. ______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 8:25 p.m.): To avoid mental fatigue, I've suggested averting our eyes for a day or two in gold. I'll now suggest doing the same in silver. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 6:03 p.m.): That felt pretty good, actually. This time, let's try averting our eyes for an entire week. If the futures break down, p2=20.68 will the the first stop, and then D=18.82 (daily, A= 29.38 on 9/1). ________ UPDATE (Dec 15, 5:53 p.m.): Today's rally generated a robust impulse leg on the hourly chart that portends a test of last week's highs near 25.00. If they are easily surpassed, look for more upside over the near term to 26.66 (60-min, A=22.04 on 11/30; B= 25.015 on 12/8).

The bearish pattern in December Silver's chart, unlike gold's, is 'textbook' and unambiguous, leaving little doubt that a decisive breach of p=22.26 would send the futures down p2=20.40 in search of a durable bottom. Any lower would put the pattern's 18.55 'D' target in play, but we'll take this mini-bear market one step at a time. Friday's precise bounce from p implies that the two remaining Hidden Pivot levels can be used to bottom-fish, presumably using an rABC pattern of small degree. Moreover, a rally from p or p2 cold set up an equally opportune 'mechanical' short. ______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 9:31 p.m.): Today's chintzy poke to just below p=22.26 was not decisive, but the subsequent bounce will need to continue to at least 25.16 to take some pressure off bulls. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1, 9:27 p.m.): Shifting to the March contract, we can use the 24.78 'D' of this reverse pattern as a minimum upside target for the near term. An easy move through it would be bullish, and levels x and p can be used enroute to fashion 'mechanical' bids or to paper-trade them just to stay closely attuned to the trend.

Silver's downtrend since late July has probably given bears even less satisfaction than gold's. It is a corrective dirge that last week resisted falling to a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 23.10 where we could plan on bottom-fishing. Odds are high of an upturn beginning from somewhere between the red line and the 22.62 low recorded on 10/29. The trade is best initiated with an rABC pattern, possible using a=23.67 from 11/19 on the daily chart. If the trade is stopped out and the futures close beneath the red line, that would imply more jeopardy down to as low as D=20.08.  _______UPDATE (Nov 24, 8:59 p.m.): Silver has bounced nicely from just below 23.10. If you did the trade exactly as directed, using a 'reverse rABC' set-up with a=23.67, you could have cashed out at the red line for an $1100 profit shortly before 9:00 p.m. Only one subscriber reported getting long near the 23.10 pivot  as suggested, so I have not established a tracking position.  If you simply bought there with a tight stop-loss, you'd be up around $1300 now, presumably able to manage the trade without much stress. Here's the chart.

Silver's daily chart looks even less disturbed than gold's following last week's hit-job on bullion. The commercials reportedly were heavily short, and they used an extremely volatile day in the stock market to make traders think news of a Pfizer vaccine was somehow bearish for precious metals. Their ploy worked for all of a day, but buyers were back at it the next, struggling to recoup lost ground. A theoretical buy signal remains in effect, predicated on minimum expected upside to p=28.22. We'll have to see how the uptrend interacts with that Hidden Pivot if and when it is reached, but an easy move through it on first contact would shorten the odds of a further rally to as high as D=34.62. ________ UPDATE (Nov 18, 8:44 p.m. ET): There's a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 23.93 that looks opportune for bottom-fishing with a tight stop loss. To reduce the entry risk, I'd suggest using an rABC set-up with the coordinates shown to do the trade.  Initial risk would be about $700 per contract. A comparable support in SIL lies at 41.62. _______ UPDATE (Nov 19, 10:13 a.m.): Using the rABC pattern sketched out above, you'd be up about $1300 per contract at the moment. The first entry stopped out for a $700 loss; the second, for a $700 gain; and the third is still live, just shy of p2=24.07. Based on four contracts, the third should be exited at p2, and the fourth at D=24.215 of the rABC. I would NOT be swinging for the fences here because p=23.93 of the big pattern -- my original 'buy' level -- has been badly mauled. This implies SI will fall o at least p2=23.318 of the big, bearish pattern against which we are trading; or even to D=22.70.