Silver

Silver intraday chart looks a little better than gold's, although a modest rally to the green line at 24.25 would still trip a 'mechanical' short (stop 25.70), as would a corresponding upthrust in gold. The short-term picture would brighten somewhat on a print at 24.77, since that would generate a health impulse leg on the hourly chart. The sooner this happens, if it does, the more bullish it would be. Failing that, the larger, bearish pattern (see inset) still indicates further slippage to p2=21.36, or possibly even D=19.92 if any lower.

Silver has behaved more bullishly than gold, but that's not saying much. Like gold, it has achieved no net gain in three months, even as it has generated minor impulse legs that are slightly more powerful. It's tracing out the completion of one now, in the form of a C-D follow-through leg that points to 26.40.  A pullback first to x= 24.33 (the green line) would trigger a mechanical buy -- one sufficiently attractive that  I would rate the opportunity a juicy '7.9' on our homegrown scale. Mindful of the $3400 entry risk per contract that this would entail, I will be looking for clever ways to get aboard, most likely an rABC set-up on the 15-minute (or less) chart. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 11:04): Unlike gold, December Silver has yet to breach a midpoint support at 22.825 that 's crucial to the short-term picture.  If it does, particularly if a two-day close below the red line ensues, that would portend more slippage to at least p2=21.38, or 19.94 if any lower. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:17 p.m.): Sellers cracked the 22.82 midpoint support today, raising a yellow flag despite the 75-cent rally that followed. Bulls will need a print at 25.72 to justify a confidently bullish bias. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 9:55): The 'mechanical' short triggered at 24.25, implying a stop-loss at 25.70, just above the point 'C' high. No one reported doing the trade in the chat room, but if you did, bring the stop down to 24.77, where a print would generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 12:05 a.m.): There was a theoretical profit of $6200 per contract in the short position at today's low, but I am not tracking it because interest in the chat room appears to be

The December contract is trading exactly where it was a month ago, a situation hardly conducive to interesting or profitable forecasts, let alone dramatic ones.  We ended last week with a cautiously bullish target at 25.02, but because gold futures looks slightly bearish at the moment, I'll sync up my Silver forecast with a 22.82 target that is cautiously bearish. That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a pattern begun in mid-September that projects to as low as 19.94.   Alternatively, a pop exceeding the 24.73 'external' peak recorded on the way down last Wednesday would shift the outlook to short-term bullish, and a print at 25.23, especially early in the week, would put 26.40 in play for a finishing stroke. ______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 9:14 p.m. ET): I've had enough gratuitous nuttiness for the time being. I'm going to sit back and watch for a few days. _______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 11:59 p.m.): Like the updated chart in gold, I offer this one without much enthusiasm, although it looks a little better than gold's. A pullback to the green line (24.33) would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 23.64, but I'd suggest an alternative entry set-up, since the initial risk would be nearly $3500 per contract.

December Silver performed beautifully on Friday, gaining some tough yardage at the end of the day that put it just above an 'external' peak at 25.30 recorded on September 21.  This subtle but technically significant feat, which created an impulse leg on the hourly chart, adds to the likelihood that gold will duplicate it shortly.  It also implies that the current rally will be stronger than the one which lifted the futures off a deeply oversold bottom at 21.81 recorded on September 24. Stay tuned to the chat room for trading guidance, since getting aboard a rally this steep will require deft use of a 'mechanical' set-up on a lesser chart. ______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 1:57 p.m.): So very delicately attuned to the dollar's ups and downs have silver and gold become that today's strong rally in the former has caused quotes in the latter to plunge.  This has not undone the bullish impulse leg noted above, it has merely brought bulls another all-too-familiar day of disappointment. ______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 7:47 p.m.): With a point 'B' low that is pure sausage, the downtrend shown in this chart lacks the legitimacy and authority of the one I've suggested bottom-fishing in gold. Be that as it may, Silver's ABC looks good enough for government work, implying you can try bottom-fishing anyway at p=24.08. This assumes you know how to minimize the entry risk with a small-interval rABC set-up or some method or your own. ______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 9:13 a.m.): The trade worked almost as well as the one suggested in December Gold, producing a theoretical gain of as much as $1100 per contract overnight. The futures have since relapsed and appear bound for the pattern's 23.43 'D' target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 5:56 p.m.): Although the futures fell overnight, a 28-cent

It could go either way, but I've featured a bearish chart because last week's high failed to exceed any external peaks. That would have put the December contract on track for a run-up to 25.12 or so. As things stands, the bearish pattern we used last week to plot a move down to 21.50 is still viable, even though this Hidden Pivot target was nearly reached on 9/24.  The near-miss made the subsequent rally to the green line a 'mechanical' short, albeit an unappetizing one, and there things stand. Look for a move down to at least p2=22.45 Sunday night or Monday if bulls are unable to make any headway at the outset. _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 5:35 p.m.): Just to be safe, and also unfoolable, let's stipulate that the futures fist-pump above the 25.30 'external' peak recorded on 9/21 before we break out the Prosecco. _______ UPDATE (Oct 6, 8:33 p.m.): Silver flunked our test, penetrating p=23.178 on the way down. This has shortened the odds of more weakness down to at least D=21.680 over the near term. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Oct 8, 8:24 p.m.): The rally from Tuesday's 22.96 low tripped a 'mechanical' short at the green line, but I'll pass up the trade because of the poorly formed C-D leg. It is elongated and choppy, features that tend to diminish the tradeable value of a correction that follows a strong impulse leg. We'll paper trade this one, keeping 21.680 as a downside objective. It would be negated by a pop above C=24.67.

December Silver's failure to reach the bearish target at 21.50 shown in the chart is encouraging. The pattern is clean and compelling, if somewhat  gnarly, and the target should therefore have been achieved if sellers had good command of the board. The fact that they evidently don't is bullish by implication, and that means this rally is probably no worse than an even bet to probe resistance between $27 and $29 that accumulated over the last six weeks of summer. A pop on Thursday above 25.30 would all but clinch that scenario. _______ UPDATE (Sep 30, 5:55 p.m.ET): The futures went the wrong way, but this did not diminish the so-so odds of a pop above 25.30.

Thursday's upthrust had subtle power, surpassing no fewer than three minor peaks without a pause. However, bulls expecting a quick second leg up got stopped out twice on successively lower lows. This weakness should be regarded as  less worrisome than if the rally had simply sputtered out and died.  Both gold and silver are waiting for a sign from the dollar, which has been their unrelenting nemesis lately. My short-term expectation for the buck is mildly bullish, but we'll just have to wait and see. If the week begins with a Sunday night/Monday morning lurch above the 23.885 'external' peak recorded last Wednesday on the way down, it would give bulls a good shot of reversing the nasty slide of the last five days.

[DEC Silver] Bulls and bears have been locked in a deadly battle of tiddlywinks for a month, oscillating gratuitously in a $4 range. The tedium eventually will give way to a thrust to at least 31.285, a longstanding Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart (inset).  It is always possible to take a small position using an entry pattern on a chart of lesser degree, and to take profits on most of it while leaving one or two contracts for a swing at the fences. In this case, however, the potentially interminable wait makes the strategy unpalatable, but also vulnerable to occasional swoons.  We might consider a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=25.671 nonetheless, but the $9,355/contract stop-loss demands a modified entry method to minimize risk. ______ UPDATE (Sep 20): The tiddlywinks marathon stretched on for yet another week as bulls awaited the right opportunity to demolish bears. A gratuitous swoon on Thursday was just Mr Market's way of reminding bulls that even being right is certain to be painful at times. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 8:55 p.m.): The futures would need to touch 27.90 to undo the technical damage wrought by today's plunge.  That's a tick higher than a small but significant 'external' peak recorded on 9/2. In the meantime, the 23.385 target shown in this chart will remain theoretically viable. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 10:42 a.m.): A 23.40 midpoint support is breaking down, opening a path to as low as 21.50. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 10:12 p.m.): The futures bounced sharply after plunging to within 36 cents of the 21.50 target. We'll repair to the sidelines, since I'd rather not mess with mister in-between. The target remains viable nonetheless.

December Silver appears bound for the 31.285 target shown, a 15% rally from here. The target has been in play since August 12, when a strong upthrust first touched the green line. But it has been a trying slog for bulls ever since, even if the gratuitous ups and downs have provided ample sustenance for traders. Last week's ratcheting downtrend tripped a weak mechanical 'buy' at the  red line, stop 26.30, but I didn't trade it 'mechanically' myself because Silver's rebounds from Hidden Pivot levels have lost much of their vigor. Under the circumstances, the futures could easily drift down to the stop and regain their lazy energy for another rally. The workaround is to bottom-fish with rABC patterns, and so I did: with small -a-b segments fashioned from the 15-minute bar chart.  The small rallies were profitable in a small way, but they went nowhere. Now, if the futures were to fall to x=25.671 (the green line), they would signal a 'mechanical' buy somewhat more appealing than the one last week at the red line. The stop-loss would be at 23.795, implying a  theoretical entry risk of about $9400 per contract. Although I would rate the odds of this trade working as excellent, the dollar risk is obviously much too high to employ a straight  'mechanical' entry. Again, the workaround would be to fashion small-pattern rABCs if and when the December contract falls to 25.670.  I would encourage most of you to simply paper-trade this one, since it's a good way to increase your confidence in 'mechanical' set-ups. These trades provide the easiest way I know for relative beginners to make money consistently. I haven't kept close track of our winning streak with posted 'mechanical' set-ups, but anyone who has could attest that the streak has been formidable and