Silver

Bulls easily exceeded the 17.020 pivot we'd been using as a rally target, so I've redrawn the pattern to produce a new one at 17.545. Given the high quality of the pattern, it should show potentially tradeable stopping power. You can use a corresponding target in SIL to get short via an ETF, but I would suggest a very tight stop-loss regardless of what vehicle you choose. The pivot demands our attention, since it is such a logical spot for a correction. _______ UPDATE (Aug 13, 8:03 a.m.): Today's roller-coaster ride peaked a nickel from the 17.545 target given above. It remains valid in theory, but in practice we'll put it aside and focus on the retracement. If the 16.510 low of the swoon holds, the next rally could hit 17.970 (60-min, A=15.070 on 7/12. _______UPDATE (Aug 14, 9:45 p.m.): So far so good. Not only have the futures rallied sharply from the 16.510 low, they are moving tonight above the 17.240 midpoint resistance associated with the 17.970 target. _______ UPDATE (Aug 17, 2:45 p.m.): Although I am removing this tout form the home page, I will track Silver futures on request in the Trading Room.

The futures came down hard Friday, but only after they'd rallied sharply above the 16.555 'hidden' resistance I'd proffered as a minimum upside objective. The September contract has used up all of the Hidden Pivot targets that can be derived from the daily chart, so I've switched to the weekly chart for a longer-term perspective. It yields a target at 20.985 that lies 30% above these levels, but also a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 17.423 than can serve as a minimum objective for now. If it is easily exceeded, that would shorten the odds of a further push to 20.985. These numbers are not exact because the pattern from which they were derived is a composite of highs and lows from various contract months going back more than three years. Also, the A-B impulse leg is weaker than we would have preferred, since it failed to get past the series of 'external' peaks recorded in 2013-14. This makes a move into the low 20s less than the near-certainty it would have been if 2016's move off the launching pad had been stronger. _______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 10:00 p.m.): It's unlikely sellers are spent, since the futures have breached a clear downside target at 16.170 this evening (30-min, A=16.640 on 7/30 at 3:30 p.m.). _______ UPDATE (Aug 1, 6:50 p.m.): Buyers generated a minor impulse leg, but they'll need to push the futures above 16.478 to put the 17.020 rally target of this pattern in play.

The top of September Silver's spike on Tuesday fell three cents shy of an important 'external' peak recorded back in March. Recall that healthy rallies generate fresh impulse legs with each new thrust. This rally has failed to do so, at least so far, but bulls still deserve the benefit of the doubt because the futures ended the session above the midpoint of their intraday range.  If they are going to impulse above the 15.765 peak, however, the sooner the better, since the longer it takes and the more labored the effort, the less underlying strength there is to be inferred. Regardless, bulls are certain to meet resistance at 15.840, a Hidden Pivot target on the daily chart that comes from A=14.700 on June 10.  There is an additional resistance a nickel lower, at 15.835, from the peak just above our 'external' benchmark (see inset). _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 8:13 p.m. ET): Buyers surpassed the 15.840 resistance with such ease that a test of resistance at 16.470, where September Silver double topped earlier this year, seems all but inevitable. If the rally exceeds them as easily, it would greatly strengthen the case that a powerful new bull market has begun. More immediately, look for a short-term finishing stroke to 16.190, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown in this chart. _____ UPDATE (Jul 18, 9:48 p.m.): Buyers easily exceeded the 16.190 'hidden' resistance and now appear all but certain to hit the next at 16.555.  An easy move past it would put the September contract on course for a shot at a 17.867 peak recorded last June.

Sellers drove the May contract down through two prior 'external' lows on Friday, seriously damaging the bullish look of the daily chart. The futures will have a chance to find traction at 15.115, a minor Hidden Pivot support, but we'll forego bottom-fishing there, since it's not a high-odds number. When the inevitable bounce comes, we'll be better able to judge on the next leg down whether this weakness is strong enough to erase the bull cycle begun from 14.100 in mid-November. ______ UPDATE (Mar 4, 6:25 p.m. EST): The downtrend slightly breached the 15.115 "hidden support," opening a path to sill lower prices. The futures would need to pop above 15.295 to turn the short-term picture bullish.______ UPDATE (Mar 10): Friday's surge hit 15.385, but it will take a tad more -- 15.400, to be precise -- to put p=15.470 in play as a minimum upside objective for the near term. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 11, 10:04 p.m.): Today's swoon changed the short-term picture, which is still bullish. The stall precisely at the 15.365 midpoint resistance has confirmed the pattern and its D target at 15.505. It would become an odds-on bet to be reached if buyers can push the futures decisively above 15.365. ______ UPDATE (Mar 12, 5:40 p.m.) Today's surge brought the futures to within a penny-and-a-half of the 15.505 target -- close enough for us to consider it fulfilled. Now let's see if bulls can push past it. It would take a print at 15.600 to refresh the bullish energy of the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 8:44 p.m.): Today's stab higher hit 15.550, but as noted above it'll take another nickel to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 7:59 p.m.): Silver really sucks, doesn't it? But

A query in the chat room prompted me to check out some silver charts, which look most encouraging. The one shown, of Comex May Silver, has the futures bound for at least 16.490. That would represent a nearly 3% move from Tuesday's settlement price. Given the way buyers punched through the 16.018 midpoint resistance, they should have little trouble reaching the target. The impulse leg is quite strong and the pattern well-formed, so I will recommend a mechanical 'buy' at 15.780, stop 15.540, if the futures should pull back to that number from within the topping range 16.110-16.165. As always, using the futures to time your entry, you could substitute equity-based alternatives such as stock or ETFs. _______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 10:07 p.m.): The rally overshot my window, and so I am no longer recommending the 'mechanical' trade detailed above. The 16.490 target remains a good bet to be reached nevertheless.

I posted a worst-case target of 9.35 here earlier, but because things might not turn out that bad, I am proffering an alternative at 13.527 that allows for a less dire outcome. However, that is my minimum downside projection for now, and regardless of what your long-term strategy is for silver, I would not recommend buying any more of it until 13.527 is reached. For purposes of bottom-fishing, you can expect a significant bounce from that number, given the precise bounce in December 2017 from p=16.024._______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 6:33 p.m.): I'll start believing this rally, sort of, if and when it thrusts above the 14.590 peak shown. If it can do so without much correcting or zig-zagging between here and there, that would shorten the odds that it's for real. ______ UPDATE (Sep 13, 4:45 p.m.):  Today's nasty reversal was not what I had in mind when I stipulated that the futures exceed 14.590 without much ado. But because the upthrust generated a fresh impulse leg on the hourly chart before relapsing, I'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

Today's chart is intended to stretch the bearish imagination of subscribers who seem to think silver bulls have been beaten up badly enough already. That kind of hopefulness appears to be popular in the chat room, and so it's probably a good time for me to introduce a 9.35 target that has technically sound underpinnings. It may seem to go against all logic, but at least from a technical standpoint such an unsettling outcome is hardly unthinkable. The pattern shown has a point 'B' low that is manifestly not 'sausage', and that is one reason why its target should be taken seriously. Today's dip beneath the midpoint pivot is not conclusive, but neither would I describe it as slight, considering the clarity of the picture. Some of you who are more familiar with the Hidden Pivot method may be hopeful that the futures will take a big 'counterintuitive' leap from somewhere near the 2016 low. The chart holds little promise for that, however, since the last big rally -- the one capped by the 20.835 high two years ago -- failed to exceed any significant prior peaks. ________ UPDATE (August 27, 8:16 p.m. EDT): Even on the intraday charts, Silver's rally off the 8/16 low still looks very unimpressive. I'll set the snooze alarm for 15.110, since that's when the move would become slightly interesting.

I hadn't noticed the 14.946 target shown until after Silver plummeted today (see inset), but it suggests there's at least a chance the September contract may have bottomed or is close to doing so. Rather than get your hopes up, I'll let the charts do the talking. That means the futures would need to go no lower, then rally to exceed the 15.700 peak shown (click here), before we could infer that bulls may be turning the tide.  Otherwise, the chart suggests the Sep contract is likely to fall to at least 14.625, albeit with an opportunity to turn higher from p2=14.894.

Despite the rising drumbeat from Silver bulls in the chat room, I promised to ignore such noise and go strictly by the charts. In that regard, price action in the September contract stinks. I'll need more evidence before I ask aloud, "What were we thinking!?" But based on Thursday's failure of a minor rally to reach its 15.745 target, it is not too early to ratchet up the skepticism. Admittedly, this is like calling the electoral vote in Pennsylvania 20 minutes after the polls close. But we've been had so many times by fake-out rallies that we can ill afford to cling hopefully to the one begun a week ago. I'll turn on a dime if the futures demonstrate a little good faith, presumably with a strong bounce from 15.350, a midpoint support on the hourly chart (A=15.885 on 7/17). But failing that, a further fall to at least D=15.00o will become all too likely. ______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 7:40 p.m.):  Progress to the upside has been so labored that it's hard to imagine Silver futures taking off. Whatever they're about to do, we'll continue to fight off sleep for the time being. _______ UPDATE (August 7):  Never short a quiet tape, as the saying goes.  Silver futures are so quiet these days that one could fall into a trance watching them too closely. So we don't get caught unawares, I've set a screen alert at 15.640. A print there would exceed an 'external' peak recorded July 31, turning the hourly chart bullish.