Silver

Just an inch higher and September Silver will trip a theoretical buy signal at 16.663. This isn't a trade we'll want to jump on, however, since there's a so-far mild undertow that eventually could pull the futures below $15 again, presumably to create a more durable bottom. The most logical place for this to occur would be at 14.165, the 'd' target of a corrective abc pattern originating back in September at 20.145. If buyers should instead push this vehicle above 17.745 first, I'd infer the danger was past._______ UPDATE (Jul 26, 6:53 p.m. EDT): Sep Silver tripped the theoretical 'buy' signal at 16.663 with more than a penny to spare. I'll be more trusting of the rally, however, if it can exceed as early as Thursday the 16.915 peak shown. ________ UPDATE (Jul 30, 6:30 p.m.): The futures didn't quite reach our 16.915 benchmark last week, but they were in good position nonetheless for a shot at it Sunday evening when futures trading resumes. The pattern shown suggests the September contract is likely to reach 17.035 straightaway if it can surmount the 16.770 midpoint resistance in the early going.________ UPDATE Aug 1, 5:47 p.m.): Despite the ordeal getting there, now in its third day, the very modest, 17.035 target remains viable._______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 11:59 p.m.): The futures relapsed after trapping bulls with an opening bar that hit 16.960. Newly fearful, they are not likely to show much interest in buying this brick until at falls at last a further 30 cents. Even then, we shouldn't expect much enthusiasm.

By popular request, I'm going to start offering trades in this vehicle to accommodate subscribers who prefer equity vehicles over futures. A cautionary note, however: The options are thinly traded, with open interest that extends no further than two strikes from the current price. My current recommendation is to bottom-fish at the 28.60 targets shown. This can be done with a 28.62 bid, stop 28.54. The target pattern is small and precise, with a very well-formed A-B impulse leg that promises to deliver a reliable bounce from D. If you use call options, the June 16th 36s should do. They closed on a 1.10-1.55 bid/asked, but if the market doesn't tighten during trading hours, you'll need to put your bid midway between to come up with a fair price. Buy them by paying up on the offer and you are all but guaranteed to lose money on the trade, especially since you could wind up selling on the bid to exit. If the order fills and the trade goes your way, you'll be on your own managing risk and profit-taking. _______ UPDATE (May 21, 6:30 p.m. ET): Don't be too concerned about the 28.60 correction target given above, since it's a worst-case projection that comes from the weekly chart. Near-term, if SIL were to pop above the minor midpoint pivot at 36.73 shown in this chart, that would open a path to 37.81 over the near term. We'll wait for it to happen before we take action, possibly with a 'camouflage' entry trigger or a 'mechanical' bid at the red line. _______ UPDATE (May 23, 6:39 p.m.): SIL ended the day sitting on a midpoint Hidden Pivot support associated with a 'd' target at 34.11. Use a 34.13 bid, stop 34.04, to bottom-fish today. You can substitute options, but you'll

Silver has turned higher after having failed to achieve a crystal clear downside target at 15.485 last week. That's encouraging, since whenever a corrective move falls shy of a D target, it implies that the larger uptrend -- in this case one going back to January 2016 -- is still dominant. The bullish significance of this would grow if the futures continue to exceed minor rally targets. At the moment, the nearest lies at 16.590, just three cents above Sunday evening's so-far high. If the rally exceeds that number, and particularly if it surpasses an 'external' peak at 16.845 recorded May 3 on the way down in the process, beleaguered bulls will have something to cheer about. _______ UPDATE (May 15, 8:04 p.m. ET): Today's strong upthrust easily surpassed the 16.590 resistance, although it fell just shy of icing the cake for bulls with a move above the 16.845 peak. I expect the correction off the intraday high to continue, and that's why I'm recommending a 'counterintuitive' trade as sketched to subscribers seeking to get long. ______ UPDATE (May 16, 9:20 p.m.): Like Gold futures, July Silver did not defer to our niggardly bid before taking off this morning. Use the 17.070 target shown in the chart as a minimum upside objective for now. If it's achieved, the futures would generate a fresh impulse leg on the hourly chart. Night owls can use a 'mechanical' buy signal at 16.830, stop 16.750, to get long, but I'll recommend converting it to a 'camouflage' entry in order to cut the initial risk by as much as 90%. A pullback to the green line can be bought 'mechanically,' stop 16.595, straightaway with no tricks.  _______ UPDATE (May 17, 7:02): The mechanical buy signal noted above worked nicely, but because no subscribers reported doing

Silver's losing streak could make it into the record book if it continues for yet a little while longer. The July contract has fallen for 13 straight days and is starting to look like the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies, who lost 21 straight games before beating the Milwaukee Braves 7-4 on a stiflingly hot day in August, 1961.  I was a bigger Phillies fan back then than I am a silver fan now. They had Robin Roberts, Stan Lopata, Harry Anderson, Ed Bouchee and a catcher name Carl Sawatski who is best remembered, if remembered at all, for having caught behind home plate without a chest protector. Were that Silver showed such daring and pluck! Instead, it has continued relentlessly lower and seems bound for the 15.485 target shown (a slight adjustment from the target previously given here). I'm confident it will achieve that Hidden Pivot and that there will be a tradeable bounce from very close to it. But to all of you silver bulls who like to dream big dreams, the bounce would need to reach 19.11 (!) to provide any real encouragement for the long-term. Incidentally, I am treating June Gold as a separate case, since its long-term chart doesn't look nearly as bad. Check it out elsewhere on this page if you're looking for a ray of hope. _______ UPDATE (May 7, 6:30 p.m.): The futures groped for a precarious foothold on Friday but showed little energy for extricating themselves from the deep hole they've dug over the last three weeks. The 15.485 target flagged above still obtains but would recede as an imminent probability with an upthrust on Monday exceeding 16.700.  _______ UPDATE (May 9, 6:55 p.m.): Although the 15.485 target will remain in play, look for a bounce from above $16 by week's end, since

The selling has been so relentless over the last two weeks that even a dead-cat bounce might come as  relief to shell-shocked bulls. If it happens, they ought not count too heavily on a sustained rally, since Monday's dive did serious technical damage to the daily chart. Specifically, it exceeded March 15's low at 16.890, creating the most menacing impulse leg silver futures have seen since December. It also exceeded the 17.110 midpoint Hidden Pivot support (p) shown, keeping a 15.494 downside target well in play. For bulls to get back in the game, they'd need to rally this brick to at least 17.335 [5/2 update: now 17.225] over the next 2-3 days. In any event, we'll stay on the sidelines for the time being. _______ UPDATE (May 3, 8:14 p.m. ET): If bulls are going to mount a counterattack, their best opportunity will come at 16.302, the 'secondary' pivot of the pattern shown. The bounce would need to surpass 16.700, however, to be meaningful.

Friday's plunge overshot our 17.230 target by less than a nickel, but that's sufficient to suggest that still-lower prices are coming. If so, expect July Silver to fall to the 16.950 target, the worst-case low that can be extrapolated from the hourly chart. You could bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as two cents, but I would recommend the trade only to those who have profited on the way down.  Alternatively, bulls would have control of the short-term outlook if they can push the futures to the 17.500 midpoint pivot today. A subsequent pullback from anywhere in the range 17.500 - 17.550 could offer an excellent buying opportunity, so be sure to tune to the chat room for guidance in real time if this occurs.

There are numerous target projections that can be extrapolated from the chart shown (see inset), but we'll use the one at 17.245 as a minimum downside objective because of the precise dance the futures have done above and below the 17.610 midpoint Hidden Pivot. That makes the red line a 'mechanical' short in theory, stop 17.735, but night owls should consider alternative entry tactics, since the implied initial risk would be more than $600 per contract. If the 'hidden' support at 17.245 gives way, look for more slippage to 17.160. That Hidden Pivot support looks enticing enough to bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as 4-5 ticks. ______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 7:09 p.m. ET): The futures rallied off a low that missed my downside target by 4.5 cents, but I don't think buyers will get very far. Look for a relapse to 17.245 on Thursday, but if that Hidden Pivot support can't hold, 17.160 would be the next stop. That looks like a promising place to try bottom-fishing, so I'll recommend doing so, stop 17.145, if you've been short for at least a part of the ride south. Alternatively, buyers would need to hoist this cinder block above 17.625 today to suggest they're capable of turning it around to end the week.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 27, 10:57 a.m.): May Silver's decline has overshot the 17.245 target given above by two cents this morning. Given the clarity of the pattern that produced the target, we should infer that even so slight a breach as this portends still lower prices. That would imply more slippage to at least 17.160, a Hidden Pivot support I'd also noted above. Alternatively, it would take a pop exceeding  17.540 to hint of a bullish turnaround. (Note: The equivalent target for the July contract is 17.230. Click

May Silver is correcting a rally to an 18.665 target that took ten weeks to reach, so we should expect the futures to take more than a few days to recoup their strength.  If not and they come bounding back to make new recovery highs this week or early next, that would bolster the odds that bulls are bound for the 22.644 target introduced here yesterday. In the meantime, we can use the pattern shown to project a 17.775 target for the retracement. If the futures instead were to turn higher without having gone below the 18.070 midpoint Hidden Pivot, and then rally to exceed 18.365, that would be extremely bullish.  I've sketched this hypothetically on the chart. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 10:47 p.m. ET):  Check my 00:28 post in the chat room for guidance on setting up a 'counterintuitive' trigger to get long. Ideally, it would come off a point 'C' low  in the range 17.750 - 17.765. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 7:56 p.m.): The correction continues with May Silver's engineered plunge tonight on news that LePen had failed to capture the French presidency on the first ballot.  The Republic has been saved, at least for the time being but don't think the clowns who have pulled the rug out from under bullion know any more than we do. _____ UPDATE (Apr 25, 12:01 a.m.): Silver's recovery today was stronger than gold's, ending the day with the creation of a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Overnight weakness could conceivably set up a 'counterintuitive' buying opportunity using any of three prior lows as point 'A', but the one shown in this chart is the only one I'm recommending for the job.

May Silver peaked on Monday a penny shy of an 18.665 Hidden Pivot rally target that kept us steadfastly on the right side of the trend for the last several weeks. Trading aggressively, one subscriber reported using the target to get short just off the high. Although the trade could have been worth as much as $1500 per contract by day's end, I have not established a tracking position because no other subscriber reported using the target in similar fashion. In any event, the futures are due for a breather, since it took them fully ten weeks to reach the target. Because the move has exhausted the minor trend, we must now consider an ABC rally pattern of larger degree to produce a fresh rally target. The one shown projects to as high as 22.644, a target that corresponds to one at 1464.90 that I just published for June Gold. Before we get excited about the prospect, however, we'll need to see the futures take out the 19.200 midpoint Hidden Pivot (shown as a red line in the chart).  The more quickly and easily this happens, the greater the odds of 22.644 being reached. Meanwhile, SIK17 is on a 'mechanical' buy signal from 17.477 that was tripped on March 8. The least risky way I can suggest to get aboard belatedly would be to use the rightmost six bars to fashion a 'camouflage' entry trigger.  For a graphic picture of this, check out the chart accompanying the current (i.e., April 17) tout for the E-Mini S&Ps, since it shows a very similar set-up. _______ UPDATE (Apr 18, 7:32 p.m. ET): The 'camouflage' tactic suggested above was a non-starter because Silver broke sharply lower overnight. The next conceivable low-risk entry etnry opportunity could set up 'counterintuitively'. Click here for a hypothetical