May Silver peaked on Monday a penny shy of an 18.665 Hidden Pivot rally target that kept us steadfastly on the right side of the trend for the last several weeks. Trading aggressively, one subscriber reported using the target to get short just off the high. Although the trade could have been worth as much as $1500 per contract by day’s end, I have not established a tracking position because no other subscriber reported using the target in similar fashion. In any event, the futures are due for a breather, since it took them fully ten weeks to reach the target. Because the move has exhausted the minor trend, we must now consider an ABC rally pattern of larger degree to produce a fresh rally target. The one shown projects to as high as 22.644, a target that corresponds to one at 1464.90 that I just published for June Gold. Before we get excited about the prospect, however, we’ll need to see the futures take out the 19.200 midpoint Hidden Pivot (shown as a red line in the chart). The more quickly and easily this happens, the greater the odds of 22.644 being reached. Meanwhile, SIK17 is on a ‘mechanical’ buy signal from 17.477 that was tripped on March 8. The least risky way I can suggest to get aboard belatedly would be to use the rightmost six bars to fashion a ‘camouflage’ entry trigger. For a graphic picture of this, check out the chart accompanying the current (i.e., April 17) tout for the E-Mini S&Ps, since it shows a very similar set-up. _______ UPDATE (Apr 18, 7:32 p.m. ET): The ‘camouflage’ tactic suggested above was a non-starter because Silver broke sharply lower overnight. The next conceivable low-risk entry etnry opportunity could set up ‘counterintuitively’. Click here for a hypothetical sketch.
