Is Silver’s long bear market over? If so, it would be exciting news for bulls who have suffered through a hellacious, 72% correction since the metal peaked in 2011 just beneath $50. The monthly chart (see inset) provides reason for cautious optimism, implying as it does that Comex futures could be bottoming slightly above $15. If a powerful and sustained upturn lies in the offing, the September contract would need to hold above 15.093, a midpoint ‘Hidden Pivot’ support shown in the chart (see inset). It bounced precisely from this number a year ago and is trying to hold above it now. A small breach of a few pennies would not likely prove fatal, but a more decisive one of perhaps 30-40 cents would. That would probably doom this vehicle to a further slide to at least 12.221, the pattern’s ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot, or even to the ‘D’ target at 9.350 (although I seriously doubt things will get that ugly). The pattern from which I have derived these targets is a textbook-perfect beauty, and that’s why I have strong confidence in it. Accordingly, I would suggest using it regularly to get an accurate ‘read’ on Silver’s price action in the weeks and months ahead. The chart further suggests that Silver must push above a peak at 21.525 recorded in July 2014 to launch a sustainable move that would have the potential to reach 55.055. As a practical matter, we needn’t wait for Silver to rally above 21.525 to take speculative long positions with risk under very tight control. That is possible from current levels, using the hourly chart, which would turn impulsively bullish with a push above 15.595. _______ UPDATE (July 23, 8:23 p.m.): Today’s weak selloff follows a high earlier in the day that failed to surpass some peaks near 15.595 recorded last week. On balance this is slightly bearish, but not as much so as a move exceeding 15.595 today would be bullish. This implies that you could buy a breakout above 15.595. Please note, though, that the further the futures get above that number before pulling back in B-C fashion, the riskier the trade would become. A pullback from within the range 15.585-15.605 would be ideal._______ UPDATE (July 24, 7:33 p.m.): The futures pushed above 15.595 and three prior peaks today, generating a promising impulse leg. However, the rally, which apexed at 15.635, was strong enough to have attracted more bullish attention than we should prefer. We’ll repair to the sidelines for now as buyers try to second-guess each other to death. _______ UPDATE (July 25, 8:19 p.m.): Buyers made moderate progress for the second straight day. For now, use the 15.745 Hidden Pivot shown here as a minimum upside target. As always, an easy move through such resistance would portend still-higher prices over the near term.
