Sellers drove the May contract down through two prior ‘external’ lows on Friday, seriously damaging the bullish look of the daily chart. The futures will have a chance to find traction at 15.115, a minor Hidden Pivot support, but we’ll forego bottom-fishing there, since it’s not a high-odds number. When the inevitable bounce comes, we’ll be better able to judge on the next leg down whether this weakness is strong enough to erase the bull cycle begun from 14.100 in mid-November. ______ UPDATE (Mar 4, 6:25 p.m. EST): The downtrend slightly breached the 15.115 “hidden support,” opening a path to sill lower prices. The futures would need to pop above 15.295 to turn the short-term picture bullish.______ UPDATE (Mar 10): Friday’s surge hit 15.385, but it will take a tad more — 15.400, to be precise — to put p=15.470 in play as a minimum upside objective for the near term. Here’s the chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 11, 10:04 p.m.): Today’s swoon changed the short-term picture, which is still bullish. The stall precisely at the 15.365 midpoint resistance has confirmed the pattern and its D target at 15.505. It would become an odds-on bet to be reached if buyers can push the futures decisively above 15.365. ______ UPDATE (Mar 12, 5:40 p.m.) Today’s surge brought the futures to within a penny-and-a-half of the 15.505 target — close enough for us to consider it fulfilled. Now let’s see if bulls can push past it. It would take a print at 15.600 to refresh the bullish energy of the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 8:44 p.m.): Today’s stab higher hit 15.550, but as noted above it’ll take another nickel to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 7:59 p.m.): Silver really sucks, doesn’t it? But at least we can say that because of the impulse-leg rule, this latest plunge didn’t catch us by surprise. This is no bull market, but neither is it a bear. Zzzzzzz.
