The futures came down hard Friday, but only after they’d rallied sharply above the 16.555 ‘hidden’ resistance I’d proffered as a minimum upside objective. The September contract has used up all of the Hidden Pivot targets that can be derived from the daily chart, so I’ve switched to the weekly chart for a longer-term perspective. It yields a target at 20.985 that lies 30% above these levels, but also a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 17.423 than can serve as a minimum objective for now. If it is easily exceeded, that would shorten the odds of a further push to 20.985.
These numbers are not exact because the pattern from which they were derived is a composite of highs and lows from various contract months going back more than three years. Also, the A-B impulse leg is weaker than we would have preferred, since it failed to get past the series of ‘external’ peaks recorded in 2013-14. This makes a move into the low 20s less than the near-certainty it would have been if 2016’s move off the launching pad had been stronger. _______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 10:00 p.m.): It’s unlikely sellers are spent, since the futures have breached a clear downside target at 16.170 this evening (30-min, A=16.640 on 7/30 at 3:30 p.m.). _______ UPDATE (Aug 1, 6:50 p.m.): Buyers generated a minor impulse leg, but they’ll need to push the futures above 16.478 to put the 17.020 rally target of this pattern in play.