December Silver’s failure to reach the bearish target at 21.50 shown in the chart is encouraging. The pattern is clean and compelling, if somewhat  gnarly, and the target should therefore have been achieved if sellers had good command of the board. The fact that they evidently don’t is bullish by implication, and that means this rally is probably no worse than an even bet to probe resistance between $27 and $29 that accumulated over the last six weeks of summer. A pop on Thursday above 25.30 would all but clinch that scenario. _______ UPDATE (Sep 30, 5:55 p.m.ET): The futures went the wrong way, but this did not diminish the so-so odds of a pop above 25.30.