It could go either way, but I’ve featured a bearish chart because last week’s high failed to exceed any external peaks. That would have put the December contract on track for a run-up to 25.12 or so. As things stands, the bearish pattern we used last week to plot a move down to 21.50 is still viable, even though this Hidden Pivot target was nearly reached on 9/24. The near-miss made the subsequent rally to the green line a ‘mechanical’ short, albeit an unappetizing one, and there things stand. Look for a move down to at least p2=22.45 Sunday night or Monday if bulls are unable to make any headway at the outset. _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 5:35 p.m.): Just to be safe, and also unfoolable, let’s stipulate that the futures fist-pump above the 25.30 ‘external’ peak recorded on 9/21 before we break out the Prosecco. _______ UPDATE (Oct 6, 8:33 p.m.): Silver flunked our test, penetrating p=23.178 on the way down. This has shortened the odds of more weakness down to at least D=21.680 over the near term. Here’s the chart. _______ UPDATE (Oct 8, 8:24 p.m.): The rally from Tuesday’s 22.96 low tripped a ‘mechanical’ short at the green line, but I’ll pass up the trade because of the poorly formed C-D leg. It is elongated and choppy, features that tend to diminish the tradeable value of a correction that follows a strong impulse leg. We’ll paper trade this one, keeping 21.680 as a downside objective. It would be negated by a pop above C=24.67.
SIZ20 – December Silver (Last:24.06)