Silver

 March Silver continued to forge higher on Tuesday, pausing exactly at a 17.635 target that I'd flagged in the chat room at 9:56, when the futures were trading 15 cents lower. When they subsequently corrected by 19 cents, I put out a second 'buy' signal tied to a nominally higher target at 17.645 that has yet to be reached. This contract has obviously been very cooperative in moving to Hidden Pivot targets lately.  As such, we should look for the next thrust to hit 17.735 (see inset), and thence 18.115 if any higher. The pattern shown can be used to generate 'mechanical' entry signals both from the long and short side. As always, and easy move through clear Hidden Pivot resistance will imply a continuation of the trend to the next. And to what heights, we might ask, if 18.115 is impaled? I'll hold off on that target for now, since it seems a little too ambitious to me at the moment, and I don't want to stir up the sort of bullishness that could turn subscribers incautious._______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 1:18 p.m.):  Silver looks slightly more feisty than gold, but I've revised the chart to show the pattern we should be using at the moment in any event. It provides a conservative assessment based on the last six bars while keeping us focused on a short-term outlook that will remain bullish unless the futures fall beneath 16.610. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 1:55 p.m.): No change in my outlook.

I was mildly skeptical of Silver's manic leap on Friday and remain so, since it failed to surpass any 'external' peaks of significance, even on the 15-minute chart.  However, since we are obliged by habit to go with the flow, we'll take the impulsively bullish pattern shown at face value and respect its potential. Accordingly, I've furnished Hidden Pivot levels that can help us gauge the strength of the buying.  Sunday evening's stall just beneath p=17.252 has validated the pattern and suggests that a decisive move past it would be bound for a minimum 17.519. Even more bullish would be a thrust that effortlessly takes out that last point of resistance.  Traders please note: An alternative pattern, bigger but with a lower target, could cause a stall at 17.385 (A= 16.610 on 1/13, 60-min). _______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 9:18 a.m.): A balky Tradestation application screwed up the original chart. I've corrected it to show a somewhat revised target at 17.545 , and also a midpoint pivot at 17.278 where the futures have stalled -- very precisely -- this morning. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 8:48 p.m.): The stall has confirmed the pattern and its 17.545 target. Either of two entry tactics could have gotten you aboard -- mechanical, or counterintuitive. The former, on the 60-minute chart, triggered at 2:00 a.m. on a pullback to the green line (17.144); the latter, via a counterintuitive entry at 17.134 (4:00 p.m.) that used A= 17.080 (5:00 a.m.). Any takers?

The futures appear headed to the the 16.580 target shown. I posted this Hidden Pivot support in the chat room Thursday morning, but it was probably of little help to traders because of the downtrend's rabid demeanor.  I am not suggesting bottom-fishing with the usual penny-ante stop-loss, since the target closely coincides with some important lows from mid-January. Our main concern should be whether sellers take out both of those lows without a visually distinctive correction. Were that to occur, I'd infer a test of support is imminent at 16.260, equal to an important low recorded on January 5. Alternatively, I'd need to see a pop on Friday above 17.075 to persuade me that buyers are serious.

Sheeesh! Would a multi-day bullish rampage now and then be asking for too much? Tuesday was not it, as the chart makes clear. The futures took a running start after making a low early in the session, only to sputter out just shy of the key (and previously targeted) short-term peak at 17.360 notched a week ago. The subsequent fall is mildly impulsive on the intraday charts, but I'd suggest tuning out the downtrending pattern for now and focusing on possible 'counterintuitive' buying opportunities if the futures should come down to either of the two numbered lows. One or the other could conceivably be used to generate a 'CI' entry signal just as March Silver is turning feisty (which is what makes counterintuitive trades work so well). _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 11:11 p.m. EST): The futures tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal off the #2 low shown in the chart, but we talked ourselves out of the trade because the bounce off the low seemed so feeble -- and also because the impulsive segment of the pattern was not much of one. Lower prices seem likely on Thursday, so beware of a half-baked rallies, since it could turn out to be a bull trap. On the 240-minute chart, the potentially tradable pattern can be found using a=17.310 at 2:00 p.m. on 1/24.

Silver futures sold off hard Wednesday after peaking around mid-session, but not before generating the most promising bullish impulse leg that we've seen in a long while. Notice in the chart that the modest rally, which lasted for just a couple of hours, exceeded two prior peaks stretching all the way back to mid-November. This implies that there's some real power pushing silver higher, notwithstanding the whipsaw price action that concluded the day. It also implies that any weakness in the days or even weeks ahead is corrective and therefore a potential buying opportunity.  We'll be looking to use the lows labeled in green to create trade set-ups that can significantly reduce entry risk. Stay tuned to the chat room for further guidance in real time. If you don't subscribe, click here for instant access and a free two-week trial to the room, to Rick's daily trading 'touts', and to all features of the service. _______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 10:05 p.m.): Late this evening, the futures were scaling the wall they created earlier in the day one craggy handhold at a time.  The effort has produced a bullish impulse leg on the lesser charts that should be good for another four cents of upside to a minor target at 17.100. Once above it they'll be an even-odds bet to hit 17.175. However, if they can close above that number to end the week, we might look forward to more of the same when trading resumes Sunday night. _______ UPDATE (Jan 21, 1:55 p.m.): The active rally pattern, with a minor target at 17.505, is shown here. Friday's push through the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot, should suffice to power this vehicle to at least 17.505 Sunday night or Monday. A move through that resistance, especially if it takes out

Newly energized buyers made further progress toward the 16.785 target first broached here two days ago, coming within 2.5 cents of it at the intraday high. It remains valid, but the important concern at the moment is how easily buyers can get past it, if indeed they do. If the rally were to continue, exceeding 'external' peaks #1 and #2 (see inset) without a visually distinctive pullback along the way, that would increase the likelihood that a major, bullish trend change is under way. Incidentally, the Silver Miners ETF (SIL) has already achieved this, so I will be adding it to the list of touts, and providing coverage in the chat room, for traders who prefer using equity vehicles. _______ UPDATE (Jan 10, 7:53 p.m. EST): This morning's opening-bar surge easily reached our target, then overshot it by 17 cents. This is bullish, of course, but it would have been significantly moreso if the rally gone just another inch, surpassing the 17.000 'external' peak, before buyers took a breather. If they can accomplish this today, however, it would all but clinch a further push above mid-December's peaks near 17.300. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 10:30 p.m.): It has taken ten days for the futures to recoup what they lost in mere hours on December 15. Even so, the March contract has yet to exceed any peaks on the daily chart. That would occur with a print at 17.295, but if bulls can't deliver this result soon, they're going to be feeling the weight of skepticism next week.  _______ UPDATE (January 17, 11:12 p.m.):  Today's surge left the futures a nickel shy of our 17.295 benchmark. Let's see what happens now. ______ UPDATE (Jan 18, 11:03 a.m.): Today's move is VERY encouraging. The seemingly modest spear comprising the last two hourly bars has

The rally is still well shy of impulsiveness on the hourly chart, since that would take a push above the 'external' peak at 17.000 (see inset).  Even so, if and when the futures touch 16.454 -- they missed by a tick on Tuesday -- you can consider it a signal to look for a 'camouflage' entry opportunity. The five-minute chart seems best suited for this purpose, having already signaled a trade at 16.380 tonight. The minor 'camo' pattern is targeted on 16.470, so beware of a possible stall there. Note as well that the 16.380 entry would have come on the second attempt, after getting stopped out for a loss of about $160 per contract initially. The compensation for taking this risk is that the larger pattern (A=16.060 at 10:05 a.m.) projects to at least 16.785. I'll put this one on The Scoreboard if any subscribers report a fill. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:58 p.m. ET): The rally is tracking as forecast (see inset, a new chart). With this evening's energetic leap past the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 16.543, the futures have become a strong bet to hit 16.785 -- or possibly 16.870 if any higher. No one in the chat room reported doing the trade, although one subscriber said he'd substituted SLW shares.

The futures spasmed higher late in Tuesday's session, but it doesn't negate the fact that the intraday low decisively breached the 15.993 midpoint support shown (see inset). That means the 14.685 target of the pattern is very much in play and will remain so unless this rally pushes above 17.300, the point 'C' high. Price action at p has been sufficiently precise to imply that if and when it is breached, a tradable bounce precisely from D is likely. However, I recommend this only to those of you who have been short for at least a part of the ride south.  Please note that the lesser charts are impulsively bullish at the moment and warrant a bullish bias if you day-trade this little monster. _______ UPDATE (Dec 21, 6:58 p.m. ET): And now the hourly chart is slightly bearish, with this short-able pattern in prospect for night owls: A=16.190 (10:00 a.m.); B= 15.950; C=?. _______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 7:35 p.m.): The trade noted above, with C=16.070, would have produced a small profit of $60/contract. The futures continued to struggle  to hold 15.995, a key Hidden Pivot  support. _______UPDATE (Dec 26, 10:03 p.m.): Silver has opened slightly higher this evening -- a non-reaction so far to news of Obama's last-ditch attempt to take down Trump before he assumes office, and to paint Israel into a dangerous corner. The story will continue to develop, but it remains to be seen whether investors will perceive Obama's treachery as bad for the world, and for the U.S. economy. _______ UPDATE (Dec 27, 7:55 p.m.):  Today's modest rally was bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, with a 16.185 target derived from these coordinates: a=15.755 (Dec 26, 9:00 p.m.); b=16.105 (5:00 a.m.); c=15.835. If a pullback to p=16.010 sets up a mechanical bid that meets our rules,

Several feints higher in the last week have done little more than trap bulls looking for a breakout. None of the rallies exceeded the two external peaks labeled in the  chart, casting doubt on the enthusiasm and buying power of bulls. This is no problem that yet another flurry of buying wouldn't cure, but until it happens we should reconcile ourselves to more humdrum price action -- or possibly the futures taking the path of less resistance and heading lower.  Were that to occur, we could expect March Silver to fall to at least 15.995 before finding traction for a reversal attempt.  On the 120-minute chart, the coordinates for that target, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support, are as follows: A=18.860 (11/11); B=16.245 (11/24); and C=17.300. _______ UPDATE (Dec 15, 7:25 p.m. ET): Silver took a steep plunge today, exceeding my minimum downside target (see above) by five cents. Now, if the 15.948 midpoint support shown cannot hold, the March contract will be in jeopardy of falling to as low as 14.595. There are several alternative point 'A' highs that I could have used to project this target, but the precise interaction with p suggests the coordinates I've used will yield the most accurate swing low for the bear cycle begun on November 11 from 18.950. That would represent a 23% decline in silver's price since then, and an 87% correction of the bull market begun from around $13.70 in early 2016. _______ UPDATE (Dec 18): So far, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 15.948 has held. If it gives way, however, odds of a further fall to at least 14.595 would shorten significantly. Alternatively, a rally this week would need to hit 17.335 to brighten the outlook for bulls.