Silver

Although Comex Gold offered no similar encouragement, March Silver's rally on Monday was strongly impulsive, implying as it has that the futures are a decent bet to reach the 17.295 target within the next 2-3 days.  Moreover, if buyers are able to push this vehicle just a nickel or so higher overnight, that would significantly shorten the odds the target will be achieved, perhaps as early as Tuesday night. A move above the red line is key, however, especially with gold futures in a funk. For your information, I have lower targets outstanding for Feb Gold, the most immediate of which lies at 1149.40. If that Hidden Pivot support were to be breached by more than $2 (or so), a worst-case target at 1105.80 would be in play for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 6:30 p.m.): Silver’s highs on Tuesday failed by a millimeter to enhance the bullish case.

Elsewhere on the page, I've provided a worst-case target of 1105.80 for March Gold during the holiday period. The 14.920 target shown for March Silver is its equivalent. Silver is in relatively better shape at the moment, since, unlike gold, its downtrend has yet to breach the 16.125 midpoint support (shown as a red line in the chart). However, it seems more likely to me that gold will drag silver lower rather than silver bouncing from near these levels and pulling gold up. We'll have to wait and see, but from a trading standpoint your best bet will be to look for mechanical shorting opportunities from x or p on the daily chart in the days ahead. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 12:59 p.m.): March Silver need only rally above 16.985 -- the sooner the better -- to turn a dismal daily chart promising. That price corresponds to an 'external' peak recorded Nov 22 on the way down. 

Unlike gold, silver did not take out the key external low from last June. That means the March contract would in theory generate a buy signal, were it to rally to the green line. In practice, we can avoid the enormous implied entry risk there by simply looking for a 'camouflage' trade set-up if and when 17.499 is hit. In the meantime, the futures can be traded from either side of the market. Although a move exceeding 16.955 would generate a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, it would do little to overcome the bearish implications of the precipitous selloff that has occurred since November 10. _______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 7:09 p.m. EST):  A rally decisively exceeding 16.820, a minor Hidden Pivot resistance, would clear a path to 17.170. On the hourly chart, here are the coordinates: a=16.245 (11/24); b=16.945 (11/28)

We've been using a downside target of 16.350, but if support at that Hidden Pivot fails, we'd be looking at more slippage to at least 16.165 over the near term. That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown, and as you can see, a decisive breach would put a target at 15.095 in play.  Alternatively, nothing less than a rally above Thursday's 17.080 high over the next day or two will suffice to turn things around for bulls. That's not much of a rally, but considering Silver's weakness lately, it's a daunting requirement. FYI, the futures on Friday became a 'mechanical' short in theory from 16.70, stop 17.240. However, if the implied initial risk of $1200 per contract is too scary, consider a 'camouflage' entry on the five minute chart or less. Tune to the chat room for guidance in real time.

Friday's wicked plunge obliterated the midpoint support at 17.678, turning a 16.350 downside target into an odds-on bet. A 'mechanical' trigger can be used to get short on rally back up to 'p', provided there are a few bars in the interim that lie fully below the red line as we require. The theoretical entry risk using this tactic is about $2200 -- equal to a third of what you stand to make if the futures reach the target. Under the circumstances, I'd recommend substituting a 'camouflage' entry on a chart of five-minute degree or less. Ask me or someone else about this in the chat room if you'd like to know more. _______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 7:24 p.m. EST): Tuesday's feeble rally has left the futures vulnerable to a fall to the 16.350 target, but they could get out of jeopardy with a print today at 17.460. If that happens, look for camouflage entry opportunities on the 15-minute chart, since there are plenty of 'external' peaks there to qualify the trade.

I've switched views, since, on the weekly chart, December Silver tripped an entry signal at 18.436 that has put a rally target at 22.400 theoretically in play.  Bulls will have their work cut out for them, however, since a move to that number would not become an odds-on bet until such time as the futures have closed for two consecutive weekly bars above the 19.758 midpoint Hidden Pivot. More immediately, a pullback to the green line could conceivably create a 'mechanical' entry opportunity if the retracement occurs after the futures have spent a few leisurely bars entirely above the line as we require. Since the implied initial risk would exceed $3000 per contract, we would want to try to reduce that by as much as 95% using 'camouflage' or perhaps a 'counterintuitive' trigger.  If these terms are unfamiliar to you, stay tuned to the chat room, since there will usually be at least a half-dozen traders who know exactly how to make hay using the chart shown.  More immediately, night owls should look at this pattern on the 30-minute chart for a possible bottom-fishing opportunity at p=18.110:  a=18.645 on 11/3; b=17.995 on 11/3; and c=18.435. That last coordinate must not be exceeded to the upside if p=18.110 is to remain valid. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 8:03 p.m. EST): The futures have opened sharply lower Sunday night, breaching the 18.155 midpoint support of a pattern that projects to d=17.830. The bearish prognosis will remain unless buyers can push this vehicle above an 18.440 'external' peak created Friday on the way down. You can replicate the minor, bearish pattern on the 15-minute chart using these coordinates: a=18.645 (11/2); b=17.995  (11/3); and c=18.480. _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 7:48 p.m.): The futures rebounded without having achieved the 17.830 downside target noted above. The rally

The futures did everything we'd asked of them and more, generating a fresh bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart in the process. The next bullish benchmark lies at 18.940, equal to an 'external' peak recorded October 3 on the way down. The futures will need to exceed that number on the next thrust to re-energize the intraday charts. Rather than get too far ahead of ourselves predicting the next move, let's see how it unfolds. If a rally like the hypothetical one I've sketched (see inset) easily exceeds its 'd' target, that would imply there's ample buying power to push this vehicle above not only the external peak at 18.940, but the more daunting one above it at 19.770. How easily this is accomplished, assuming it happens at all, can tell us whether the rally is just a bear tease or the real-McCoy resumption of the 2016 bull market in bullion.

Friday's thrust put an 18.185 rally target in play (see inset), but buyers will need to push the futures decisively past p=17.970 to ensure their success in getting there. The futures are receiving boost from a larger pattern as well, but I haven't used it because, with a low point 'c', it projects only to 18.005.  The rally would gain added significance if it achieves the target, since that would imply an impulsive push past an important external peak at 18.040 recorded on October 5.

With just a little more slippage to the green line, December Silver would trip a theoretical sell signal to 15.225. If that target were to be achieved, it would represent a 28.5% correction from the 21.250 recovery high recorded on July 5. So far, the correction has amounted to about 20%, the accepted threshold for a bear market. Even if a reversal should come from the 16.528 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown, it would not negate the damage done by the bearish impulse generated two weeks ago by the breach of June's key low at 17.250. The bull market from January's lows would still be intact, but that would be scant consolation to those who have hung tough since July or bought on the way down.  Tightly stopped bottom-fishing at the red and pink lines, p and p2, would be indicated here, since either is a logical place for a significant upturn to occur if the larger bull market is still viable. But even then there would be no guarantees. Alternatively, and most immediately, it would take a rally this week exceeding 17.880 to offer the barest hint of a turnaround. _______ UPDATE (Oct 18, 6:42 p.m.)  A 'reprieve rally' created a minor, bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts, but then went nowhere.  Bulls will need to push this brick above 17.695 today -- or better yet, close above it -- to get something going. ________ UPDATE (Oct 23): Silver futures are about to enter a third week of tedium so stultifying that price movement could be referred to as vibrations rather than swings. _______ UPDATE (October 24, 11:08 p.m.): Yesterday's bull-trap rally created a slightly higher point 'C', so I've changed the chart to reflect this. The new minimum downside target will be p=16.563, assuming the